Corn
Price action: July corn futures rose 1/4 cent to $4.38 1/2, near mid-range after hitting a seven-month low today.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market continues to see limited buying interest as the U.S. corn crop is off to an overall good start to its growing season. A stronger U.S. dollar index today and elevated trade tensions between the U.S. and China were also bearish elements for the grains today.
World Weather Inc. today said returning wet weather to the U.S. Plains, Midwest and Delta over the coming week “will not be welcome for many areas, although crops will handle the situation well. The biggest concern is for crop areas in the lower Midwest and northern Delta, where planting has either not been completed and/or crops are not in very good shape because of persistent wet conditions.”
USDA rated the U.S. corn crop as 69% “good” to “excellent” and 5% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop improved 1.2 points to 374.9, though that was still 10.7 points below last year at this time. U.S. corn planting was 93% complete as of last Sunday.
Meantime, southern portions of center-south Brazil corn production areas will receive additional rain over the coming week that will further bolster soil moisture for late-planted Safrinha corn, resulting in higher yields. Center-west Brazil crop areas, however, will not see much moisture and crop stress is expected to increase. Argentina will see drier weather for a while, supporting good or improving harvest conditions. Portions of eastern Argentina are still too wet, though drying down, said the forecaster.
South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier said he was prepared to increase his Brazilian corn crop estimate another 1 MMT to 2 MMT after recent rains. However, record-low temps last Friday and Saturday in southern Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana and Sao Paulo may have damaged safrinha corn that is still filling.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.55. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.21 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.42 1/2 and then at this week’s high of $4.51. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.34 1/4 and then at $4.30.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 7 1/4 cents to $10.40 3/4, near the session high, while July meal rose 60 points to $294.50. July soyoil rose 53 points to 46.81 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans notched modest corrective strength following a four-day string of selling, though returned U.S. dollar strength and drawn-out trade negotiations continue to crimp hefty buying interest. Meanwhile, USDA rated the soybean crop as 67% “good” to “excellent” as of June 1, while only 5% was rated “poor” to “very poor.” Planting efforts were reported to have advanced to 84%, which was four-points ahead of the five-year average for the period, though Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi and Ohio continue to trail their respective five-year averages. Emergence was estimated 63%, six points ahead of average.
World Weather Inc. notes strong to severe thunderstorms are likely during the next few days while heavy rain and some local flooding occurs in some areas from eastern Kansas to Missouri and west-central Illinois. The forecaster states most of the wetter areas from Kentucky to Ohio will see little rain and good opportunities for planting before the rain increases Thursday. The far northwestern Corn Belt will see the least rain during the next two weeks and may need greater rain soon to ensure soil moisture remains favorable.
The marketplace continues to closely monitor the broad trade situation, with a special eye on China. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt reported Monday that President Trump is “likely” to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, as trade tensions escalate following accusations from both sides of violating the recent trade truce.
In other trade news the U.S. has reportedly presented Vietnam with a “long” and “tough” list of demands as a part of ongoing trade negotiations aimed at averting sweeping new tariffs, according to Reuters.
Technical analysis: July soybeans found support at Monday’s low, with bulls and bears sharing a level playing field. The next near-term upside objective for bulls is to secure a close above resistance at the May high of $10.82, while bears look to edge back below psychological support at $10.00. First resistance stands at $10.50, then at $10.60 while first support lies at this week’s low of $1.32 1/2 and then at $10.25.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW futures slid 3 cents to $5.36 and closed near mid-range. July HRW futures fell 3 cents to $5.36 3/4. July spring wheat fell 9 1/4 points to $6.18.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures struggled to share in the corrective gains posted by corn and soybeans as better than expected condition ratings took hold on the market. USDA rated the spring wheat crop as 50% “good” to “excellent,” up five points. The winter wheat crop was pegged at 52% “good” to “excellent,” up two points from last week. Both were above expectations. Improvements in North Dakota led spring wheat conditions higher, posting an impressive week-over-week jump.
Corn and beans were supported by constructive trade news today. Wheat is not likely to be on the forefront of any trade deals, which explains some of the relative weakness seen today. Prices continue to modestly trend higher on the daily bar chart but harvest selling pressure is likely to limit any rally. USDA reported the winter wheat crop was 3% harvested as of Sunday, in line with average. HRW acres are expected to be excessively wet over the next week, causing concern for wheat quality decline and wet weather disease, especially in southeastern production areas, says World Weather Inc. Wet conditions are likely to keep a lid on harvest efforts as well.
Technical analysis: July SRW futures continue to face heavy technical selling pressure, capping recent gains and rewarding the technical advantage to the bears. Downtrend resistance from the March and April highs coincides with the 40-day moving average at $5.40 3/4. A close above that level would have bulls eyeing resistance at $5.49 1/4. Support comes in at $5.35 1/2 on persistent selling pressure, which is backed by last week’s low of $5.26 3/4.
July HRW futures are in a similar situation as SRW futures. The 40-day moving average remains stiff resistance at $5.43 1/4, while strength above that mark would eye resistance at $5.50. Uptrend support capped the downside today at $5.31 and will remain firm support, with backing from last week’s low of $5.23.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton fell 8 to 66.05 cents, but still managed to forge a high-range close.
Fundamental analysis: Nearby cotton futures took back a modest portion of Monday’s gains, with a firmer U.S. dollar offsetting crude strength. Meanwhile, overnight the OECD think tank lowered its 2025 global economic growth forecast to 2.9% from 3.1%. The OECD said global economic growth will be further eroded if more tariffs are levied. The think tank also forecast no U.S. interest rate change this year.
USDA reported cotton plantings had advanced to 66% complete as of June 1, up 14 points on the week but still three points behind the five-year average. The crop was rated 61% “good” to “excellent,” while 8% was rated “poor” to “very poor.”
World Weather Inc. maintains field conditions in the Delta are too wet and more rain is expected in the north over the next ten days that will maintain concern over crop conditions with some planting to remain incomplete. In South America, Argentina will be drier biased for much of the next ten days favoring crop maturation and harvest, while Mato Grosso and Bahia, Brazil and some immediate neighboring areas are unlikely to see much precip for a while leaving crops dependent upon subsoil moisture for normal development.
Technical analysis: July cotton ended the session right at the 20-day moving average of 65.99 cents, while resistance stood at the 40-day moving average of 66.57 cents. Bulls will continue to look toward securing a close above the April high of 69.75 cents, while bears will continue to look to test the April low of 62.05 cents. First resistance will remain at the 40-day moving average, then at the 68.41 cents, while initial support will lie at the 10-day moving average, then at 65.27 cents, and last week’s low of 64.51 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.