Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 1 1/2 cents to $4.13 3/4, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw some tepid short covering. A rallying U.S. dollar index this week did limit buying interest in corn today, as did weaker crude oil prices.
USDA reported daily U.S. corn sales of 100,000 MT to Columbia, 140,000 MT to South Korea and 136,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2025-26.
USDA’s weekly export sales report this morning showed U.S. corn export sales of 340,900 MT for 2024-25, down 47% from the previous week and down 46% from the four-week average. Net sales of 2025-26 totaled 1.892 MMT. Net sales were expected to range from 200,000 to 800,000 MT for 2024-25 and 600,000 MT to 1.6 MMT for 2025-26.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. crop weather has been and will continue mostly good over the next 10 days to two weeks. Cooler temperatures will slow drying rates and that may lead to greater concern about excessive moisture in a few areas. However, less rain and warmer temperatures later in August should improve those crop conditions. Brazil’s Safrinha corn is maturing and being harvested and the environment has been quite good for those purposes. Some rain is expected over the next week to 10 days that may disrupt farming activity periodically in the south. Argentina summer crop harvesting is also advancing around showers.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.30 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.07 1/2. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $4.15 and then at this week’s high of $4.19 3/4. First support is seen at $4.07 1/2 and then at $4.00.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 6 1/2 cents to $9.89 1/4, hit a 3.5-month low and closed at a technically bearish monthly low close today. September soybean meal rose $1.10 to $265.90, nearer the daily high and hit a contract low early on. September soybean oil fell 126 points to 55.27 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures market saw more chart-based selling pressure today with the new for-the-move low hit. A firmer U.S. dollar index today was a bearish daily outside-market element for soybeans. And weather in the U.S. Midwest still leans firmly price-bearish. Featured in trading today were spreaders unwinding long soybean oil, short meal spreads. If such continues , it could help to finally put in a market bottom in the beleaguered soybean meal futures market.
World Weather Inc. today said “another two weeks of favorable conditions for crop development and very high production potentials are expected for the Midwest. Soil moisture is favorable in nearly all of the region and with regular rounds of rain expected through Aug. 11 and mild temperatures through at least the next week, the soil should be moist enough to favorably support crop development deep into August.” Temperatures will be colder to much colder than normal most often through Monday, with near normal temperatures common Tuesday into next Wednesday and near to above normal temperatures late next week.
USDA this morning reported U.S. soybean export sales of 349,200 MT for 2024-25, up noticeably from the previous week and up 4% from the four-week average. Net sales for 2025-26 totaled 429,500 MT. Analysts expected old-crop sales to range from 100,000 to 300,000 MT and new-crop sales between 100,000 and 600,000 MT.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $10.43 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $9.71 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.00 3/4 and then at $10.12 1/4. First support is seen at $9.85 and then at $9.75.
Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the July high of $285.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $250.00. First resistance comes in at $270.00 and then at this week’s high of $272.70. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $262.50 and then at $260.00.
Bean oil bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at 60.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 54.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 56.78 cents and then at this week’s high of 57.64 cents. First support is seen at 55.00 cents and then at 54.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 1 3/4 cents to $5.42 1/2, nearer the daily high, hit a contract low early on and closed at a technically bearish monthly low close today. December HRW wheat rose 2 1/2 cents to $5.44 3/4, nearer the daily high. Spring wheat futures closed a half a cent higher at $5.77 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The wheat market bulls are still on their heels, with buying interest limited today by the weak soybean futures market. A firmer U.S. dollar index today was also a daily negative for the wheat futures markets.
USDA this morning reported a daily U.S. wheat sale of 100,000 MT of U.S.
HRW wheat to Nigeria during the 2025-26 marketing year. The agency’s weekly export sales report showed U.S. wheat sales of 592,100 MT for 2025-26, down 17% from the previous week but in-line with the four-week average. Net sales landed within the pre-report range of 300,000 to 700,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said that in HRW country favorable conditions are expected for summer crop development and some wheat harvest progress in the next seven days with a good mix of rain and sunshine. Unusually cool temperatures will bring notable relief from livestock stress. The second week of the outlook will be generally warmer and drier-biased and over time, this could start to raise the need for more rain for summer crops in some of the driest pockets of the region. In the northern Plains, “conditions will be nearly ideal through the next 10 days, with a favorable mix of rain and sunshine. Unusually cool weather this week will continue to help keep evaporation rates and livestock stress low. Some warming is expected next week.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.70. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.25. First resistance is seen at $5.50 and then at this week’s high of $5.59 3/4. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.36 3/4 and then at $5.30.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.70. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.25. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.49 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $5.58 3/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.36 1/2 and then at $5.25.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 25 points to 67.25 cents, nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton market bulls are still working to stabilize the futures market, following three straight days of losses. Technical selling was featured today. A firmer U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices today also limited buying interest in cotton.
Today’s weekly USDA export sales report showed U.S. cotton sales totaling 39,100 running bales (RB) for 2024/2025 were down noticeably from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam, Turkey and Pakistan. Net sales of 71,700 RB for 2025/2026 were primarily for Vietnam, Honduras and Pakistan. Exports of 230,900 RB were up 25 percent from the previous week and up 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam, Turkey and Pakistan.
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas cotton areas still need greater rain and some additional warm weather to support the best dryland production. Other areas in Texas are seeing highly varying weather and soil conditions. Timely rain will become increasingly more important as the next two weeks move along to ensure the best crop development and yield potential. U.S. Delta crops are drying down, although it looks as though timely rain may evolve late this week into next week. The southeastern U.S. cotton areas in the nation are also expected to receive periodic rain.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid still-choppy trading. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 66.27 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 67.85 cents and then at 68.50 cents. First support is seen at the July low of 67.13 cents and then at 66.27 cents.
What to do: NEW ADVICE: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.