Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 1 1/4 cent to $4.12 1/4, nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn market bulls showed tepid signs of life today by keeping prices from slipping below important chart support at the contract low of $4.07 1/2 in December futures. A drop below that level would likely energize the speculative bears to press the market harder on the downside. A stronger U.S. dollar index that hit a two-month high today did limit the upside in the corn market.
U.S. ethanol production averaged 1.096 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended July 25, up from 1.078 million bpd the previous week, but down from 1.109 million bpd in the same week last year. Ethanol stocks rose to 24.7 million barrels, up from 24.4 million barrels the previous week and 24.0 million barrels year-ago.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. Midwest weather has been and will continue mostly good over the next 10 days to two weeks. “Cooler temperatures will slow drying rates and that may lead to greater concern about excessive moisture in a few areas. However, less rain and warmer temperatures later in August should improve those crop conditions.” Meanwhile, Brazil’s Safrinha corn is maturing and being harvested and the environment has been quite good for those purposes. Some rain is expected over the next week to ten days that may disrupt farming activity periodically in the south. Argentina summer crop harvesting is also advancing around showers.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. corn sales of 200,000 to 800,000 MT in the 2024-25 marketing year, and sales of 600,000 to 1.6 million MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.30 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.07 1/2. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $4.15 and then at this week’s high of $4.19 3/4. First support is seen at $4.07 1/2 and then at $4.00.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 13 3/4 cents to $9.95 3/4, hit a 3.5-month low and closed near the session low. September soybean meal fell $1.60 to $264.80, nearer the daily low and hit a contract low. September soybean oil fell 67 points to 56.53 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a 12-month high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The slumping soybean meal market continues to be a major anchor on the soybean market. Meal prices will have to stop their bleeding and show strength before the soybean market can begin a sustained recovery. At some point the spreaders will have to start unwinding their long soybean oil, short meal spreads, which may be the catalyst that turns the meal market around. Solid gains in the U.S. dollar index today were also a daily outside-market bearish element for the soybean complex.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the Corn Belt, another two weeks of favorable conditions for crop development and very high production potentials are expected for the Midwest. ”Soil moisture is favorable in nearly all of the region and with regular rounds of rain expected through Aug. 11 and mild temperatures through at least the next week, the soil should be moist enough to favorably support crop development deep into August.” Cooling will occur today and outside of some upper 80s to the middle 90s in southern and some eastern areas today, temperatures will be colder to much colder than normal through next Monday.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. soybean sales of 100,000 to 300,000 MT in the 2024-25 marketing year, and sales of 100,000 to 600,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $10.43 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $9.98 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.12 1/5 and then at this week’s high of $10.18 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $9.95 1/4 and then at $9.85.
Soybean meal bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the July high of $285.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $250.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $268.10 and then at this week’s high of $272.70. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $263.30 and then at $260.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at 60.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 54.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 57.64 cents and then at 58.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 55.80 cents and then at 55.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 5 3/4 cents to $5.44 1/4, nearer the daily low and closed at a contract low close. December HRW wheat rose 2 3/4 cents to $5.42 1/4, near mid-range after poking to a contract low today. December spring wheat futures were unchanged at $6.00.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets slumped again today amid commercial hedging pressure from the ongoing U.S. winter wheat harvest, as well as a stronger U.S. dollar index today that hit a two-month high.
Bangladesh’s government has approved the purchase of around 220,000 MT of U.S. wheat in an effort to ease trade tensions with the U.S. and to reduce steep import tariffs.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the Plains mostly favorable weather will occur through the next 10 days. “There will be enough rain and soil moisture to support summer crops and there should be enough dry-time between areas of rain for the remaining winter wheat harvest to continue.” Temperatures will be below average the rest of this week which will help lower any crop and livestock stress. Warming is then expected next week. In the northern Plains, conditions will continue to be nearly ideal through the next 10 days. “Unusually cool weather this week will further help prevent any crop and livestock stress and enough rain will fall to support crops.” Some warming and reduction of rainfall in the second week of the outlook is not expected to be much of an issue, said World Weather.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. wheat sales of 300,000 to 700,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, there are stiff chart support levels that lie just below present prices. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.43 3/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.59 3/4 and then at last week’s high of $5.72 3/4. First support is seen at $5.43 3/4 and then at $5.30.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.70. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.25. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.49 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $5.58 3/4. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.36 1/2 and then at $5.25.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 17 points to 67.50 cents, near mid-range and hit a three-week low.
Fundamental analysis: Some mild technical selling was featured today as the near-term chart posture for the natural fiber has deteriorated a bit this week. A rally in the U.S. dollar index to a two-month high today was a daily negative for the cotton market. Losses in cotton were limited by a rally in crude oil prices to a five-week high.
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas cotton areas still need greater rain and some additional warm weather to support the best dryland production. Other areas in Texas are seeing highly varying weather and soil conditions. “Timely rain will become increasingly more important as the next two weeks move along to ensure the best crop development and yield potential.” U.S. Delta crops are drying down, although it looks as though timely rain may evolve late this week into next week. The southeastern U.S. cotton areas in the nation are also expected to receive periodic rain. Argentina cotton weather will be dry biased for much of the coming week to ten days favoring late season harvest progress. The same is true for Mato Grosso, Bahia and some immediate neighboring areas in Brazil, said World Weather.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report will be closely scrutinized by cotton futures traders.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bulls have some momentum now. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 66.27 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 67.75 cents and then at 68.00 cents. First support is seen at the July low of 67.13 cents and then at 66.27 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.