Corn
Price action: March corn rose 1/2 of a cent to $4.31 3/4, nearer the daily high and the week up 1 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: Mach corn futures today saw a technically bullish weekly high close, suggesting some follow-through price strength when trading resumes after a three-day U.S. holiday weekend. USDA’s 100 million bu. increase to U.S. corn exports in its February supply and demand update earlier this week halted price pressure, though the market’s response to record export demand was somewhat muted.
30-day outlook: Corn traders will continue to closely monitor growing conditions for South American crops. World Weather Inc. today said Paraguay and southern Brazil will benefit from rain and increases in soil moisture through Tuesday before less frequent and lighter rain Wednesday into Feb. 27 allows for fieldwork to increase while the precipitation slows drying rates. Many areas will begin to dry down starting Wednesday and developing crops will need additional rain soon as moisture from rain into Tuesday is lost to evaporation. Much of the remainder of Brazil will see regular rounds of rain and favorable conditions for crop development through the next two weeks while fieldwork is slowed. The coming rain will be important in bolstering soil moisture for the Safrinha corn crop in advance of the dry season. In Argentina, an important period of wetter weather will continue through the next two weeks and stress to crops will be eased in most of the drier areas in southern, central, and eastern Argentina. Rain will not be evenly distributed, however, and southeastern Argentina will see the least rain overall while the remainder of southern Argentina is often disfavored for the greatest rain, but should receive enough precipitation to improve crop and soil conditions. Southeastern Argentina will not be totally dry and the showers that occur will slow increases in crop stress, but with soil moisture already short crops will likely see net declines in yield potentials through at least the next 10 days. Showers may increase Feb. 25-27, but confidence is low for the location and significance of these showers. Bahia will see little rain through Tuesday and some crops should be stressed by a lack of soil moisture before rain falls regularly Wednesday into Feb. 27.
90-day outlook: Hefty domestic supplies, a corrective pullback in crude oil and technical challenges have crimped buyer interest since the January USDA production report. However, traders remain focused on second safrinha corn planting in Brazil, with the ideal planting window closing in rapidly. As springtime comes into view, grain trader focus will shift from South American weather to U.S. weather. USDA’s late-March Prospective Plantings Report and its results will also be a next major market driver.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans fell 4 1/4 cents to $11.33, nearer the daily high and for the week were up 17 3/4 cents. March soybean meal gained $1.30 to $309.20, nearer the daily high and closed at two-month high close today. For the week, March meal was up $5.60. March bean oil fell 46 points to 57.08 cents, near mid-range and for the week up 175 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean market today saw some mild corrective selling and profit taking from the shorter-term futures traders, but the bulls had a very good week, overall. Soybean meal futures posting a technically bullish weekly high close give the soybean and meal bulls better momentum when trader resumes next week, after the three-day holiday weekend. Soybean complex traders will keep a closer eye on the wheat markets next week, given their recent price rallies.
30-day outlook: Soybean traders are still closely watching weather conditions in South American soybean-growing regions. World Weather Inc. today reported rain expected in southern Brazil and eastern Argentina as well as Uruguay through the middle part of next week will reduce crop stress and improve yield potentials. Follow up rain will be needed and some is expected. Southeastern Argentina may see a return of drier than usual weather following this period of time. Center-west and center- south Brazil will experience drier biased weather into mid-week next week with some returning rainfall likely in the last week of this month.
90-day outlook: China-U.S. trade relations appear to be on the upswing, with President Trump this week saying he will meet in person with Chinese President Xi Jinping in April—possibly to extend the present U.S.-China trade truce. Soybean bulls are hoping better U.S.-China relations will translate into more Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans in the coming months. The late-March USDA planting intentions report will be one of the most important USDA data points of the year.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW wheat lost 3 3/4 cents to $5.48 3/4, near mid-range and for the week up 19 cents. March HRW wheat fell 11 1/2 cents to $5.42 1/2, near the daily low and on the week up 11 1/4 cents. March spring wheat futures fell 5 3/4 cents to $5.71 3/4, nearer the daily low and for the week 1 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets sold off today on some routine profit-taking pressure and corrective price action after good gains posted on Wednesday and Thursday. IKAR has raised Russia’s 2026 wheat production estimate to 91.0 MMT, up from its earlier forecast of 88 MMT. Export potential for the 2026-27 marketing year is seen at 47.5 MMT. Meantime, ratings for winter crops in France, the European Union’s biggest grower, are at the highest levels in three years, well above 2024 and 2025, when wet weather hampered growth, according to FranceAgriMer.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said rain is needed in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas and in Canada’s Prairies, although there is plenty of time for this to take place before the growing season gets under way. Rain in the southern U.S. Plains, Delta and interior southeastern states Friday through the weekend will improve soil conditions while temperatures are warm to induce some greening. Meantime, soil moisture has been greatly improved this winter in southern Europe, northern Africa and across the Middle East wheat regions. Portions of France are also in much better condition than they were last autumn. This should translate into a favorable winter crop outlook for most of these areas; although if rain continues as frequent as it has been there may be some flooding. Spain, Portugal, southern France and Greece will have good moisture to support spring planting. Northern India and Pakistan benefited from rain last month, though some areas will need more. Winter crops are reproducing, making the recent rain very helpful in getting ready for reproduction, but there will be need for more moisture in all production areas to ensure the best yield.
90-day outlook: Wheat market bulls have taken note of the improving trade relations between the U.S. and its global counterparts, including the U.S. making trade deals recently that highlight more purchases of U.S. ag products. The U.S. dollar index has moved well down from its late-2025 high, which is also a positive for better global demand for U.S. wheat—making it more price-competitive on world trade markets.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton futures fell 18 points to 62.11 cents, nearer the session high and for the week up 105 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market this week saw some modest short covering after prices last Friday hit a contract low. Selling interest was limited today as The National Cotton Council on Thursday said it expects U.S. producers to plant 9 million acres of cotton in 2026, one of the lowest figures since 2015.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting in early March and a dry bias will prevail for at least another 10 days. West Texas needs rain and some will fall over the next two days; though much more will be needed. Some of the rain in West Texas will also benefit crop areas in the Blacklands while the Coastal Bend production region stays dry. Rain is also needed in Arizona and neighboring areas of Mexico and California; though only a few spotty showers are anticipated. Mountain snowpack in the southern Rocky Mountain region and will be less than usual this spring. Drought will continue from parts of Florida, southeastern Alabama and southern Georgia while rain falls from the Delta into the Carolinas this coming weekend. Some rain will reach into the drought region, though much more moisture will be needed to end drought. Meanwhile, rain expected in Queensland, Australia over the coming week should greatly improve topsoil moisture. Some cotton will see improvement as well, although some of the rain comes a bit late in the season. Early maturing cotton will be harvested in late March. Most of the crop should see greater boll development and improved fiber quality because of the rain. Late-season cotton that was not seriously harmed by recent excessive heat and dryness in both Queensland and New South Wales will benefit most from recent rain and that which is coming. Late-season cotton in southern India continues to be harvested.
90-day outlook: The consumer price index cooled in January, it was reported today, slowing to 0.2% on a monthly basis, below 0.3% in December. On an annual basis, CPI cooled to 2.4%, the lowest since May, down from 2.7% the past couple months. On an annual basis, core CPI (minus food and energy) eased to 2.5%, its lowest reading since March 2021. This is good news for the cotton market bulls, as the tamer CPI suggests the Federal Reserve will be able to lower interest rates in the coming months—which would be a boost to consumer confidence and hint at better spending on apparel.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.