Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 2 1/4 cents to $4.10 3/4, near the daily low and closed at a six-week-low close.
Fundamental analysis: The corn market saw follow-through selling pressure today from Friday’s losses that came in the wake of a rapid deterioration in U.S.-China relations. Corn bulls were not impressed with de-escalation attempts from the Trump administration over the weekend. Gains in the U.S. dollar index today also helped to pressure corn futures. Ongoing commercial hedge pressure as the corn harvest is in full swing is also a bearish element for corn futures. The lack of fresh USDA data for traders to digest, due to the government shutdown, is also bearish for the grains.
Brazil’s first corn crop was 45% planted in the key center-south region as of last Thursday, according to AgRural. This compares to a rate of 41% at the same time a year ago.
World Weather Inc. today said rain during the next two weeks should not be great enough to prevent good harvest progress from being made in much of the Midwest. Crop areas will receive at least some rain during the next two weeks, with the Dakotas and northeastern Nebraska to northern Illinois and Wisconsin seeing rain Tuesday into Thursday before the southwestern Corn Belt to Wisconsin and the eastern Corn Belt receives rain Friday into Sunday. Temperatures in the Midwest through Friday will be mostly much warmer than normal to unseasonably warm with some near to below normal temperatures. Highs will be in the middle 40s to the lower 50s in the northwest into Tuesday before this weekend into early next week is mostly warmer to much warmer than normal, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Corn bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.24 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.15 and then at $4.20. First support is seen at today’s and last week’s low of $4.10 1/2 and then at $4.05.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 1 cent to $10.07 3/4, near mid-range. December soybean meal fell 90 cents to $274.10, nearer the session low and hit a two-week low. December soybean oil gained 63 points to 50.60 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw some stabilization following Friday’s solid losses that came in the wake of a rapid erosion of U.S.-China trade relations. A higher U.S. dollar index today also limited the upside in soybeans. Three straight sessions of losses in the soybean meal futures market has the soy complex bulls especially worried. Commercial hedge selling as the U.S. soybean harvest is in full swing remains a bearish element for the soy complex.
Brazil’s soybean planting reached 14% complete as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, which marked the third fastest progress for the date.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. soybean harvest weather will be very good in the Delta, lower and eastern Midwest and interior southeastern states this week. Conditions will trend a little wetter at times during the coming weekend and next week, slowing fieldwork periodically, but no harm to crop quality is anticipated. Rain coming to Brazil will be good for improved planting, germination and emergence conditions during the next 10 days. Argentina weather is expected to be favorably mixed, although rain amounts should be light in many areas.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a neutral overall near-term technical playing field but the bears now have momentum on their side. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at last week’s high of $10.30. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of $9.93. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.13 and then at $10.20. First support is seen at $10.00 and then at $9.93.
Soybean meal bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $282.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $270.10. First resistance comes in at $278.00 and then at $280.00. First support is seen at $273.00 and then at $270.10.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 48.89 cents. First resistance is seen at 51.00 cents and then at Friday’s high of 51.68 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 49.68 cents and then at 48.89 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 1 3/4 cents to $4.96 3/4, nearer the session low and hit a contract low. December HRW lost 1 3/4 cents to $4.81 1/4, nearer the daily low and hit a contract low. December spring wheat futures fell 1 3/4 cents to $5.50
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets continue to struggle amid firmly bearish technical charts that are keeping bulls on the sidelines. A higher U.S. dollar index today was also a bearish outside market for wheat futures. The rapid deterioration in U.S.-China relations is also casting a pall over the winter wheat futures markets, as is a lack of fresh USDA data amid the government shutdown.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, some rain shower activity this week will be good for supporting newly planted winter wheat. There may be a few pockets that are left with a need for more rain; however, most areas should receive enough for at least a little topsoil moisture improvement. Some additional shower and thunderstorm activity will occur in the second week of the outlook; though, this will likely favor eastern production areas. In the Northern Plains, an area of low pressure is expected to move across the region later this week and promote rain in most areas. Some minor fieldwork delays will likely result from this, mainly Thursday. A similar storm system is possible Oct. 21 – 22 that could cause some more minor delays. “The bottom line is that the weather pattern is mostly favorable for the region and the occasional rain should help support any newly planted winter crops,” said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Price downtrends are in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.25. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75. First resistance is seen at Friday’s high of $5.09 1/2 and then at $5.20. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $4.94 1/2 and then at $4.85.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.60. First resistance is seen at $4.90 and then at $5.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.79 1/2 and then at $4.75.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 25 points to 63.59 cents, near the daily low and closed at a contract low close.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures bulls continue to mostly stand on the sideline amid a firmly bearish technical chart posture. A higher U.S. dollar index today was also a bearish “outside-market” factor for the cotton futures market. The lack of fresh USDA data also continues to cast a bearish pall over the cotton market.
World Weather Inc. today said a few showers and thunderstorms will occur in West Texas early this week that may slow crop maturation and raise a little cotton quality concern, although the rain is unlikely to last very long and it may not be very heavy. Drier weather will resume during mid-week and last up to 10 days.
U.S. Delta and interior parts of the southeastern states will experience a restricted rainfall pattern over the next week to ten days supporting crop maturation and some harvest progress. Some of the southwestern U.S. cotton has been subjected to a quality decline because of tropical moisture in recent days, although drier weather is coming to improve crops once again, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 5.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 66.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 62.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 64.42 cents and then at 65.00 cents. First support is seen at the contract low of 63.26 cents and then at 63.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.