Corn
Price action: March corn closed unchanged at $4.28 3/4, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw some mild technical buying and short covering early on today, but by the close those gains were given up. Good gains in soybeans today also limited selling interest in corn futures.
In its monthly supply and demand report today, USDA lowered its U.S. corn ending stocks forecast 100 million bu., to 2.127 billion. The average of analysts’ expectations was no change in ending stocks. Strong export performance so far this marketing year resulted in the agency increasing the export forecast to 3.3 billion bu. from 3.2 billion last month. USDA left its forecast for the 2025-2026 average cash corn price unchanged from last month at $4.10, still down 14 cents from last year.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier this week left his Brazilian and Argentine corn production estimates unchanged at 137 MMT and 53 MMT, respectively. He holds a neutral to higher bias toward the Brazilian estimate and neutral to lower bias toward the Argentine crop.
World Weather Inc. today said rain expected in southern Brazil and eastern Argentina as well as Uruguay this week into next week will reduce crop stress and improve yield potentials. Follow-up rain will be needed and some is expected. Southern Buenos Aires, Argentina may have some ongoing need for greater rain.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, the bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep the price uptrend alive. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at $4.50. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the January low of $4.17 1/4. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $4.36 and then at $4.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.27 1/4 and then at $4.24.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans rose 11 3/4 cents to $11.22 1/2, near the session high and closed at a nine-week high close. March soybean meal gained $3.00 to $300.80, nearer the session high. March soybean oil rose 58 points to 57.27 cents, near the session high and hit a contract high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex today saw some perceived bargain buying from the speculators, with soybean oil continuing to get fuel from ideas of better U.S. bean oil exports to Asian countries.
In its monthly supply and demand update today, USDA kept its U.S. soybean carryover projection steady from last month at 350 million bu. Analysts expected a 3 million-bu. cut. USDA made no changes to either the supply or demand side of the 2025-26 balance sheet. USDA also left the average cash price for soybeans unchanged for 2025-2026 at $10.20, up 20 cents compared to last year.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier maintained his Brazilian and Argentine soybean production estimates at 179 MMT and 47 MMT, respectively. He holds a neutral-to-lower bias toward the Brazilian soybean crop and neutral-to-lower bias toward the Argentine crop.
World Weather Inc. today said Paraguay and southern Brazil will benefit from regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms through most of the period from Thursday into Feb. 21. Most of the coming rain will not be heavy and will sometimes be poorly distributed, but rain will fall frequently enough to ease crop stress and induce increases in soil moisture while slowing fieldwork. Much of the remainder of Brazil will see regular rounds of rain and favorable conditions for crop development through the next two weeks while fieldwork is slowed. The coming rain will be important in bolstering soil moisture for the Safrinha corn crop in advance of the dry season. Central and eastern Bahia will see the least rain, but rain there should be great enough to support the needs of most crops. In Argentina, the southern half of the country will see little rain of significance through Friday and stress to crops should increase in many areas. However, some areas still have adequate soil moisture due to recent rain and these areas may not see much crop stress this week. Totally dry weather is not expected and some showers along with a lack of excessive heat will prevent rapid increases in crop stress. The northern half of Argentina will see regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms during the next ten days slowing fieldwork allowing for mostly favorable conditions for crop development, but some of the drier areas in central parts of the country will see little rain and rising levels of crop stress into Friday. An important rain event Saturday into Wednesday of next week and additional showers Feb. 19-20 will induce relief from dryness to the southern half of Argentina, but rain during that period is not likely to be great enough induce a lasting increase in soil moisture and follow-up rain will be needed soon.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained some more power today, amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at the November high of $11.72 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $10.51 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.24 and then at last week’s high of $11.37 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.06 1/4 and then at $11.00.
Soybean meal bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $310.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $288.30. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $303.20 and then at $306.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $296.70 and then at $292.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at 59.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 52.61 cents. First resistance is seen at 57.50 cents and then at 58.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 56.27 cents and then at this week’s low of 55.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW fell 1/2 cents to $5.28 1/4, nearer the daily high. March HRW rose 1 3/4 cents to $5.30 1/2, near mid-range. March spring wheat futures fell 2 1/4 cents to $5.68 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw more price consolidation as both markets are trapped in trading ranges.
In its monthly supply and demand report today, USDA increased its wheat ending stocks forecast 5 million bu. from last month. Analysts expected an 8 million-bu. decrease on average. USDA made no changes to the supply side of the balance sheet. On the demand side, the only change was a 5 million-bu. decrease to food use, which is now projected at 967 million bu. USDA kept its 2025-26 average cash price projection at $4.90, which would be down 62 cents from last year.
France’s farm ministry on Tuesday increased its estimates for sowings of winter soft wheat and winter rapeseed for the 2026 harvest, confirming its expectation of an expanded area for both crops this year.
World Weather Inc. today said recent bitter cold in eastern Ukraine and a minor part of Russia’s Southern Region may have led to a little winter crop damage because of limited snow cover. The area impacted was quite small and unlikely to have a big impact on overall production. Another bout of bitter cold is possible in Ukraine and a part of Russia’s Southern Region Monday with similar results. France has seen some improved topsoil moisture in recent weeks and more precipitation is needed to end long term drought. Some of that moisture will be falling in the next week to ten days. Local flooding will be possible in western France, western Spain, Portugal and the southern Balkan Countries; including western and southern Turkey. Precipitation and/or sufficient soil moisture is present around the world in most other winter crop areas, maintaining a favorable outlook for wheat and other small grains. However, timely spring rainfall will be imperative for eastern China, parts of eastern and northern France, eastern Spain, the U.S. central and southern Plains and across Canada’s Prairies when spring arrives.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends still in place on the daily bar charts—but just barely. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.68. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.07. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.40 and then at the January high of $5.44 3/4. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.22 1/4 and then at $5.10.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.53 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.16. First resistance is seen at $5.40 and then at the January high of $5.50. First support is seen at $5.25 and then at $5.16.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 2 points to 61.59 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw mild short covering early on today, after hitting a contract low last Friday. However, by the close today those mild gains were given up.
In its monthly supply and demand update, USDA raised its cotton carryover forecast 200,000 bales to 4.4 million bales. Analysts expected a 10,000-bale increase on average. USDA lowered cotton exports forecast 200,000 bales to 12 million bales due to exports running behind compared to previous years. USDA lowered its 2025-26 average cash price projection by 1 cent, to 60.0 cents, which is down 3 cents from last year.
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting in early March. West Texas recently benefited from snow and the moisture that resulted from it, but more moisture is needed in the region. Some showers may evolve in west Texas briefly late this week. Rain is also needed in Arizona and neighboring areas of Mexico and California. Mountain snowpack in the southern Rocky Mountain region and will be less than usual this spring. Drought will continue from parts of Florida and southeastern Alabama into the eastern Carolinas, despite some recent snow and moisture boost resulting from it. Meantime, showers may fall erratically in eastern Australia during the next 10 days, offering local areas of improved crop condition, though a general soaking is needed. Late-season cotton in southern India continues to be harvested. Any showers that occur in the next ten days will fail to produce enough rain to threaten unharvested crop quality. Developing El Nino later this summer may have an impact on India summer rainfall and that will be closely monitored. Argentina crop conditions are favorable. Timely rainfall and warm temperatures should dominate the next ten days. There may be some local flooding in time from strong thunderstorms. Cotton planting in Brazil has advanced well and should benefit from a pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms intermixed with some periods of rain.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 64.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 62.28 cents and then at 63.00 cents. First support is seen at the contract low of 60.90 cents and then at 60.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.