Corn
Price action: March corn futures fell 24 1/4 cents to $4.21 1/2, near the session low and hit a 4.5-month low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market got hammered today by a very bearish surprise from USDA today. The agency increased its U.S. corn crop estimate 268 million bu. from November. The yield was increased 0.5 bu. to 186.5 bu. per acre, which toppled last year’s record by 7.2 bu. per acre. Harvested area was increased 1.211 million acres to 91.258 million. USDA estimated Dec. 1 corn stocks at 13.283 billion bu., 1.208 billion bu. above year-ago and 303 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA also added 198 million bu. to projected corn carryover from December. The estimate is also 255 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA added 288 million bu. to total supplies, the result of a 269 million bushel rise in production. The agency left U.S. exports unchanged at 3.2 billion bushels. USDA put the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2024-25 at $4.10, up 10 cents from last month.
USDA also reported daily U.S. corn sales of 204,000 MT of corn to South Korea and 310,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2025-26. USDA also today reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.49 MMT during the week ended Jan. 8, down 168, 475 MT from the previous week.
World Weather Inc. today said the outlook remains favorable for most crops in Brazil and Paraguay as most areas will see regular rounds of rain that will maintain favorable soil moisture for crop development while fieldwork is slowed at times. The driest areas in northeastern Brazil will see little rain through Thursday and stress to crop may increase in eastern Bahia and northeastern Minas Gerais where soil moisture is mostly short before regular rounds of showers occur Friday into Jan. 23 and induce some improvements in soil and crop conditions. Far southern Brazil should see the least rain overall during the next two weeks, but with some rain expected and favorable soil moisture in place today, crop development should occur in a mostly favorable environment through the period. In Argentina, the driest areas in southern Argentina will benefit from regular rounds of showers through the next two weeks and although much of the rain is not likely to be heavy, enough rain should fall to prevent significant declines in crop conditions and many areas should see net improvement during the period. Favorable soil moisture in place today in central and northern Argentina and occasional rain during the next two weeks should maintain mostly favorable conditions for crop development.
Technical analysis: Corn bears quickly gained the overall near-term technical advantage with today’s powerful downside price breakout from a two-month-old trading range. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at $4.40. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.10. First resistance is seen at $4.25 and then at $4.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.20 and then at $4.15.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans fell 13 1/2 cents to $10.49 and nearer the daily low. March soybean meal fell $5.40 to $298.30, near the daily low. March soybean rose 58 points to 50.27 cents, near mid-range and hit a four-week high early on today.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans saw bearish lean of USDA data released today. USDA lowered its U.S. soybean crop estimate 9 million bu. from November and left yield unchanged at 53.0 bu. per acre. Harvested area was increased 124,000 acres to 80.437 million acres. The agency estimated Dec. 1 soybean stocks at 3.290 billion bu., up 190 million bu. from year-ago and 32 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. U.S. soybean carryover was raised 60 million bu. from last month and was 58 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA raised total supplies 17 million bu. from last month due to a larger crop and beginning stocks. Total use was cut 43 million bu. from last month due to a 60-million-bu. reduction in exports, partly offset by a 15 million bu. rise for crush. USDA put the national average on-farm cash bean price for 2024-25 at $10.20, down from $10.50.
USDA also reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 1.53 MMT during the week ended Jan. 8, up 545,591 MT from the previous week.
China is restarting soybean auctions following a three-week pause. Sinograin will auction 1.13 MMT of soybeans on Tuesday, according to a statement published on the website of the National Grain Trade Center on Friday.
World Weather Inc. today said dryness in southern Argentina is still a concern, though some showers are expected infrequently from mid-week this week into next week. Most of the rain will be far short of that needed to induce a big improvement in soil moisture and crop conditions, but any precipitation will be welcome. Crop stress will continue periodically, although without excessive heat some crops may handle the dry conditions better than others. Brazil crops are rated well and should continue performing favorably because of a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks. A few drier pockets are unlikely to have a big impact on production potential. The northeastern states will be most closely monitored for dryness later this month.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh power today. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at $10.82 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $10.28 1/2. First resistance is seen at $10.60 and then at today’s high of $10.71 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $10.43 1/4 and then at the January low of $10.38.
Soybean meal bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh power today. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $310.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $282.10. First resistance comes in at $300.00 and then at today’s high of $303.90. First support is seen at the January low of $295.20 and then at $290.00.
Bean oil bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 48.05 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 50.89 cents and then at 51.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 49.80 cents and then at the 49.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW fell 6 cents to $5.11 1/4 and nearer the daily low after hitting a four-week high early on. March HRW lost 3 1/2 cents to $5.26 3/4, nearer the daily low after hitting a seven-week high early on. March spring wheat futures fell 1 3/4 cents to $5.65 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw overall bearish USDA numbers today. The agency estimated Dec. 1 wheat stocks at 1.675 billion bu., up 103 million bu. from year-ago and 38 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. U.S. wheat carryover rose 25 million bu. to 926 million bushels, and was 30 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Total use fell 21 million bu. due to a fall in domestic use. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2025-26 at $4.90, down from $5 in December. USDA estimated U.S. winter wheat seedings down 163,000 acres from last year. Traders expected a slightly bigger decline in plantings. Planted area is estimated down 11,000 acres for HRW, while acres for SRW increased 40,000 acres. White winter wheat is down 170,000 acres from last year.
USDA also reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 317,465 MT during the week ended Jan. 8, up 133, 989 MT from the previous week.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, after last week’s needed precipitation event, a dry weather pattern has returned to the region and will continue the next ten days. The temperature pattern will become more variable in the next two weeks with more alternations between above and below average readings. The periods of colder weather will help prevent new crop development and may restore some winter hardiness to a few areas. Some livestock stress will be possible, although nothing too extreme. In the Northern Plains, some snow will occur mainly in eastern production areas in the next seven days. However, conditions will otherwise be mostly uneventful for the region. A general cooling trend is expected in the next two weeks, with today through Thursday likely being the warmest.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned choppy and sideways at lower levels. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.44 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.20 and then at today’s high of $5.28. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.07 and then at the contract low of $5.01 1/2.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at today’s high of $5.44 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.36 1/2 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at $5.20 and then at $5.08 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton rose 50 points to 64.91 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw short covering amid a friendly USDA report out near midday. The agency cut its cotton crop estimate by 197,000 bales from last month. It decreased yield by 63 lbs. to 847 lbs. per acre. Harvested area was boosted 436,000 acres to 7.805 million acres. U.S. cotton carryover is down 300,000 bales from December. USDA cut total supplies 350,000 bales due to the smaller crop estimate. Total use was unchanged from last month with exports unchanged at 12.2 million. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2024-25 at 61 cents, up a penny from last month. U.S. cotton exports are forecast by USDA at 12.2 million bales in marketing year 2025/26 (August 2025 – July 2026), 300,000 bales more than the volume exported in 2024/25. In the first 5 months of the marketing year, the United States shipped 3.2 million bales, 100,000 bales above the quantity exported in the same period a year earlier. However, export sales continue to lag previous years and are currently 15 percent below 2024/25.1 Global production is forecast down nearly 400,000 bales to 119.4 million as smaller crops in India, the United States, Argentina, and Turkey more than offset a larger China crop. Global consumption is forecast up more than 300,000 bales to 118.9 million. Higher consumption by China more than offsets lower consumption by Turkey and Nicaragua. While global production is up nearly 1 percent year-over-year, consumption is flat.
World Weather Inc. today said precipitation is needed in most of Texas and from Florida and southeastern Alabama to the Carolinas and Virginia. Additional moisture would also be good for Arizona and southern California, but precipitation may be restricted for a while in the next 10 days.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, the bulls are working on keeping alive price uptrend on the daily bar chart. They need to show more power soon to do so. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 67.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 63.68 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 65.25 cents and then at the January high of 65.76 cents. First support is seen at 64.26 cents and then at 63.68 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.