Corn
Price action: December corn fell 1 3/4 cents to $4.18, near the daily low after hitting a six-week high early on. For the week, December corn lost 2 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: Despite the mild profit-taking pressure into the close today, the takeaway this week for the corn futures market is that the bulls continue to show resilience on price setbacks. That means a price uptrend on the daily chart remains alive, to keep the chart-based speculators wanting to continue to buy dips.
World Weather Inc. today said frost and a few freezes in the northern U.S. Plains and upper Midwest will likely induce some negative impact on crops Saturday and Sunday, but it is unclear how significant the frost may be. Early indications suggest a low impact.
The data point of the week next week for grains is the September USDA supply and demand report on Friday.
30-day outlook: Harvest pressure and related commercial hedge selling will ramp up in the coming weeks, which could limit the upside in futures prices. Meanwhile, there is continued evidence of strong new-crop U.S. corn sales. USDA this morning reported net old-crop corn export reductions of 280,900 MT for the week ended Aug. 28, a new marketing-year low, but were within the pre-report range of net reductions of 400,000 MT to 100,000 MT. However, new-crop stales were reported at 2.12 MMT, which were near the upper end of the pre-report range of 900,000 MT to 2.2 MMT.
90-day outlook: Corn traders will continue to monitor progress on new trade deals between the U.S. and its major trading counterparts. Moving into November, harvesting will be in its late stages, which should prompt an easing in commercial hedge selling.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 6 cents to $10.27 and near the daily low. For the week, November beans fell 27 1/2 cents. December soybean meal rose 30 cents to $284.00, near the daily low and for the week down $5.00. December bean oil fell 70 points to 51.23 cents, near the daily low and closed at a nearly three-month low close. For the week, December bean oil fell 91 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean market bulls faded badly this week and prices are now starting to trend down on the daily chart. Bulls got no help from USDA reporting daily U.S. soybean sales of 123,000 MT to unknown destinations and 204,650 MT to unknown destinations—both for delivery during the 2025-26 marketing year.
Soybean traders will be focusing on next Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said cool temperatures and mostly favorable subsoil moisture in the U.S. Midwest will support the soybean crop over the next couple of weeks, despite dryness in some areas and erratic rainfall. Dryness in the lower Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin will prevail, although crop deterioration will be slowed by mild to cool temperatures. Frost and a few freezes in the northern Plains and upper U.S. Midwest “will likely induce some negative impact on crops Saturday and Sunday, but it is unclear how significant the frost may be. Early indications suggest a low impact,” said World Weather.
Harvest pressure and the related commercial hedge selling will pick up as September progresses, which will likely keep any price rallies modest at best.
90-day outlook: USDA today reported net old-crop U.S. soybean export sales reductions of 23,800 MT for the week ended Aug. 28 but were within pre-report expectations ranging from net reductions of 300,000 MT to 50,000 MT. New-crop sales of 818,500 MT were near the low-end of the pre-report range of 600,000 MT to 1.6 MMT. Traders will remain focused on China in the coming months as the top global soybean importer continues to stall on U.S. new-crop purchases.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 1/4 cent to $5.19 1/4, near the daily low and closed at a contract low close. For the week, December SRW was down 15 cents. December HRW wheat fell 1 cent to $5.05 1/4, near the session low, set a contract low and ended the week down 14 1/2 cents. December spring wheat futures fell 4 1/4 cents to $5.66 and gave up 14 cents on the week.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets continue to be mired in price downtrends, with new contract lows occurring nearly every week since mid-July. Technical selling will likely continue to be featured as long as the price downtrends remain firmly in place.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 313,000 MT, down 46% from the previous week and off 51% from the four-week average, and short of the pre-report range of 350,000 to 700,000 MT.
Wheat traders next week will be focused on Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said conditions in U.S. HRW country over the next two weeks will be mostly favorable for the region. Rainfall in the first seven days will be good for further increasing topsoil moisture to support early season winter wheat planting. Warmer temperatures that build into the region next week will support summer crop maturation. In the Northern Plains, net drying is likely in a majority of the region in the next seven days due to limited rainfall. This will be good for fieldwork and harvest progress. However, greater rain would be useful for the most immature crops. Some increase of rainfall is expected in the second week of the outlook. Frost and some pockets of a light freeze will occur in the mornings Saturday and Sunday with limited crop damage.
90-day outlook: While recent moisture in HRW wheat growing areas of the U.S. have created a good environment for planting and emergence, persistent selling pressure in winter wheat futures markets continues to bring into question whether producers will keep HRW wheat in their rotations. Current U.S. wheat prices are certainly positive for export demand potential, though ongoing trade tiffs inflame uncertainties for producers.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 17 points to 66.03 cents and near mid-range. It was also the lowest close in over four months. For the week, December cotton fell 51 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton market bears have momentum heading into next week. The near-term technical posture has turned more bearish recently.
Today’s jobs report showed the U.S. job market cooled further in August, with nonfarm payrolls rising by just 22,000, well below forecasts of 75,000 and a sharp drop from July’s revised 79,000. The U.S. unemployment rate edged up to 4.3%, the highest since 2021, signaling a slowdown in hiring momentum. That prompted a sell off in the U.S. stock market, which limited buying interest in cotton futures. More stock market selling pressure in the near term would cap any gains in cotton. However, the markets read today’s jobs data as meaning the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 0.75% by the end of this year. That should be price-friendly for cotton as consumers this fall will have lower borrowing costs, which means better confidence and better demand for apparel. Next week’s monthly USDA supply and demand report on Friday, Sept. 12
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said Texas cotton country precipitation will be limited over the next 10 days, with a warming trend expected next week and that should lead to better late-season cotton development in the west and expedite maturation in the Blacklands. Harvesting in the south will advance around some brief showers and thunderstorms. Meantime, northern U.S. Delta crops have dried out greatly resulting in some crop stress. A few showers are expected in the coming ten days, although the resulting rain will not be enough to change overall crop conditions. The southeastern states and Arizona will see a good mix of rain and sunshine for crop development while California is mostly dry.
90-day outlook: USDA today reported weekly U.S. cotton export sales totaling 245,000 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026, primarily for Vietnam, India, China and Bangladesh. Exports of 154,700 RB were primarily to Vietnam, Pakistan and Mexico. Cotton bulls were encouraged to see some sales to China. The progress, or lack thereof, on U.S. trade deals with its major counterparts will also likely influence the cotton market this fall, especially the ongoing trade discussions between the U.S. and China. China is a major cotton importer.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.