Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 3 1/2 cents to $4.06, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw pressure from slumping winter wheat market prices and a firmer U.S. dollar index for most of today. Bulls are fading and need to show fresh power yet this week to keep a near-term price uptrend alive on the daily bar chart.
U.S. ethanol production slid to a 13-week low to 1.07 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended Aug. 22, down marginally from the previous week. Meanwhile, stocks slid to 22.55 million barrels, which was the lowest level since the week ended Nov. 8, 2024. Vietnam is planning to switch completely to ethanol-blended gasoline next year, opening the possibility of more U.S. ethanol and corn imports from the U.S. Reuters reports the Ministry of Industry and Trade has submitted a proposal to the government to switch to E10.
World Weather Inc. today said most of the U.S. corn crop should be too far advanced to see significant declines in yields due to drier weather in the Corn Belt, while corn maturation should be sped up by the continued lack of rain.
Corn traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales data, which has recently shown solid demand for U.S. corn from abroad.
Traders expect U.S. corn sales of minus 200,000 to 150,000 MT in the 2024-25 marketing year, and sales of 1.2 million to 2.6 million MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: Prices are starting to trend up but the bulls need to show fresh power yet this week to keep the uptrend alive on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.25. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.10 and then at Tuesday’s high of $4.14 1/2. First support is seen at $4.05 and then at $4.00.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 2 cents to $10.47 1/2, nearer the daily low. September soybean meal fell $4.10 to $293.10, nearer the daily low. September soybean oil fell 29 points to 52.47 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market paused today, while meal futures saw some profit-taking pressure from recent gains. A stronger U.S. dollar index much of today did limit buying in the soybean complex.
Also a negative today, Bloomberg reported China still hasn’t purchased a single U.S. cargo of new-crop soybeans. Kang Wei Cheang, an agricultural broker at StoneX, told Bloomberg, “Brazil can cover most of their needs, seasonality makes it dangerous to rely on South America. That’s why even with politics in play, China usually comes back to U.S. beans when Brazil’s window tightens.” Meantime, European Union soybean imports for the 2025-26 season, which began in July, reached 1.96 MMT by Aug. 24, down 8% from the same period a year earlier, according to European Commission data.
World Weather Inc. today said areas from southeastern Missouri to southern Illinois and western Kentucky will be mostly dry through the next week “and stress to crops and declines in soybean yields are likely to increase as soil moisture is already short and the remaining moisture is lost to evaporation.” Mild temperatures during the next week will reduce increases in stress and at least some rain Sep. 3-4 will induce at least some benefit to soybeans, but the rain should come too late to induce significant increases in yields.
Soybean traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. Traders expect U.S. soybean sales of minus 200,000 to 50,000 MT in the 2024-25 marketing year, and sales of 450,000 MT to MMT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the June high of $10.74 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $10.62 3/4 and then at $10.74 1/4. First support is seen at $10.40 and then at $10.30.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as a price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at $310.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $285.00. First resistance comes in at $295.00 and then at $300.00. First support is seen at $290.00 and then at $288.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 57.64 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of 51.14 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 53.00 cents and then at 54.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 52.11 cents and then at 51.14 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 7 1/2 cents to $5.24 1/4, near the daily low. December HRW wheat fell 4 3/4 cents to $5.13, nearer the session low and hit another contract low. December spring wheat futures fell 13 cents to $5.76 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more technical selling pressure from the speculators today, amid fully bearish charts. A higher U.S. dollar index for most of today was also a daily negative for the wheat markets.
Ukraine’s 2025 wheat harvest is forecast at a maximum of 21.8 MMT, down from 22.7 MMT in 2024, according to the UAC farmers’ union earlier today. Australia is set to produce between 32 and 35 MMT in its upcoming harvest, according to analysts, who increased their forecasts amid improved crop conditions. The government’s ABARES agency is due to release its latest harvest projections on September 2. Meantime, Sovecon reported this week that a state of emergency may be introduced in 10 of the 54 districts in Russia’s Bashkortostan region due to waterlogged soils, according to Agriculture Minister of the region, Ilshat Fazrakhmanov.
World Weather Inc. today said that in HRW country, more rain and cooler-than-usual temperatures in the next seven days “will further raise soil moisture and set the stage for favorable early season winter wheat planting in September.” The cool conditions will also continue to help prevent both summer crop and livestock stress. Favorable weather conditions are expected in the second week of the outlook as well. In the northern U.S. Plains, some rain will occur in the next seven days. However, most of this will be light and erratic “and may not have much of an impact on topsoil moisture. Conditions will be supportive of fieldwork and harvest advancement with little delay, if any,” said the forecaster.
Wheat traders will closely scrutinize Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. Traders expect U.S. wheat sales of 400,000 to 700,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.35 1/2 and then at the August high of $5.42 3/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.17 1/4 and then at $5.10.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.20 and then at last week’s high of $5.31 1/4. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.10 and then at $5.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 3 points to 66.68 cents, near mid-range and hit a two-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton market paused today following Tuesday’s selling pressure that gave the bears fresh downside technical momentum. A higher U.S. dollar index for most of the trading session limited buying interest in cotton futures.
World Weather Inc. today said dryland cotton in southwestern parts of West Texas needs significant rain. Some showers are possible this weekend, but a general soaking may not occur in the driest areas. Other areas in West Texas will get rain, with some significant amounts in the north and central parts of the region. Rain in the Panhandle and rolling plains of Texas should be abundant along with that in southwestern Oklahoma. Temperatures will be cooler than usual during the next seven days, which will conserve soil moisture and slow crop growth rates. Timely rain is expected in the Texas Blacklands and upper coast late this weekend into early next week, improving late-season crop development potential. South Texas rainfall will be erratic and light enough to allow fieldwork to advance around the rain, although harvesting will be disrupted. U.S. Delta crops have dried out greatly, resulting in some crop stress. Rain is possible later this week and into the weekend in the central and south offering at least some relief. Upper portions of the Delta may not get much relief. The southeastern states will continue to experience a good mix of rain and sunshine as will the southwestern desert region.
Cotton traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at last week’s high of 68.30 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the August low of 65.88 cents. First resistance is seen at 67.00 cents and then at Tuesday’s high of 67.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 66.55 cents and then at 66.00 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.