Corn
NEW ADVICE: Sell another 10% of old-crop corn. You should now be 70% sold for 2025. Cash only marketers should be 30% sold for 2026. Hedgers should have 10% sold and an additional 40% coverage with $4.80 strike December full-dated puts.
Price action: July corn futures fell 9 1/2 cents to $4.65 3/4, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw heavy selling pressure today, much of which was profit taking and weak long liquidation from the shorter-term speculators. Sharply lower crude oil futures prices today also weighed on corn prices.
Also bearish for corn, in a statement today, China’s Ministry of Commerce confirmed there had been a “guiding target” set between the two countries with the goal of “expanding two-way agricultural trade,” but made no mention of the U.S. government’s claimed $17 billion number for U.S. ag product purchases from China, Bloomberg reported overnight.
Weather in the Midwest now leans price-bearish for corn. World Weather Inc. today said an active weather pattern will occur through late next week, leaving much of the Midwest with favorable soil moisture while planting is slowed with the lower Midwest wettest overall. Rain will be most important from northeastern Nebraska to north-central Iowa, southwestern and south-central Minnesota, and east-central South Dakota where soil moisture is still marginal to short. Some additional flooding is likely into early next week from eastern Kansas to Ohio and Kentucky. Much of the Midwest will dry down overall May 29-June 3 and the drier areas mentioned above will need rain again soon while the drying allows planting to steadily increase.
Corn traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, which is expected to show 1.0 million to 1.8 million MT in sales for all marketing year, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A choppy price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at the March and April high of $4.87 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at last week’s low of $4.61. First resistance is seen at $4.70 and then at $4.75. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.62 3/4 and then at $4.60.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Cash marketers should have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
NEW ADVICE: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Cash only marketers should be 30% sold for the 2026-27 crop. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options for the 2026-27 crop.
Price action: July soybeans fell 9 3/4 cents to $11.99 3/4, nearer the daily low. July soybean meal fell $1.40 to $330.90, nearer the daily low. July soybean oil lost 78 points to 74.66 cents, nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation from the shorter-term specs today. Sharply lower crude oil futures prices today also weighed on soy complex prices. Reports overnight that China’s ministry of commerce did not specify U.S.-reported numbers on purchases of U.S. ag products, after the Trump-Xi summit, also disappointed soybean bulls. Meantime, China’s soybean imports from the U.S. in April more than doubled from a year earlier, as cargoes booked after Beijing resumed purchases late last year gradually arrived at Chinese ports, according to the General Administration of Customs.
Abiove estimates final Brazilian soybean stocks in 2026 at 8.25 million tons, up from 6.76 million tons in an April forecast. Meanwhile, 2026 soybean exports are seen at 114.1 million tons, up from 113.6 million tons in its previous forecast.
World Weather Inc. today said bean planting in the United States is advancing around periods of rainfall. A favorable mix of weather is expected to prevail in northern production areas through next week supporting fieldwork of all kinds. Too much rain is expected in the coming week in the lower Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin raising some concern over crop conditions.
Soybean traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, which is expected to show 250,000 to 650,000 MT in sales for all marketing year, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend remains alive on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at the May high of $12.35. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the May low of $11.72 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.12 and then at this week’s high of $12.20 3/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $11.91 and then at $11.80.
Soybean meal bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at $350.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $315.80. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $334.20 and then at Tuesday’s high of $338.20. First support is seen at $328.00 and then at $325.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out, however. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 76.99 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 72.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 76.32 cents and then at 76.99 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 74.19 cents and then at 72.95 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Cash only marketers should be 30% sold for the 2026-27 crop. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
NEW ADVICE: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. You should have 30% forward-sold for 2026 production.
Price action: July SRW fell 6 3/4 cents to $6.60 1/2, nearer the daily low. July HRW lost 5 cents to $6.98 3/4, nearer the daily low. September spring wheat futures fell 1 3/4 cents to $7.16 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw modest profit-taking pressure today. Solid losses in corn also spilled over into selling in wheat. Sharply lower crude oil futures prices today also weighed on wheat prices.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, meaningful rainfall is still expected across much of the region in the next seven days, especially today through Friday. This rain should notably help improve crop development, especially in unirrigated fields. Much more rain will still be needed. However, the rain this week will at least be a decent step in the right direction for the region and topsoil moisture is expected to increase. In the Northern Plains, a mostly favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected through the next seven days and likely in the second week of the outlook as well. The western half of the region is most in need of greater rainfall. Some rain will occur but additional rain will be needed for the best crop development prospects.
Wheat traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, which is expected to show 100,000 to 450,000 MT in sales for all marketing year, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.36. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.79 1/2 and then at the May high of $6.88 1/4. First support is seen at $6.50 and then at $6.36.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the May high of $7.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.64. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $7.20 and then at $7.32 1/2. First support is seen at $6.90 and then at $6.80 3/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. You should have 30% sold for 2026 crop.
Cash-only marketers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cotton
NEW ADVICE: Sell 10% of old-crop production to finalize sales. We advise an additional 20% forward sale on new-crop production, to advance sales to 60% of expected production.
Price action: July cotton futures fell 73 points to 81.60 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw some technical selling today. A bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Big losses in the crude oil market today also weighed on cotton futures.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma were colder than normal and mostly dry Tuesday and planting likely advanced well. Rain returned to the Blacklands and the northern Coastal Bend, where beneficial increases in soil moisture resulted. Western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see a period of wetter weather through the next Wednesday that will slow planting while inducing beneficial increases in soil moisture that will induce likely temporary improvements in conditions for dryland cotton germination and establishment. Much of the region will receive 0.20-1.0” of rain and locally more today into Thursday with eastern areas wettest before showers occur in parts of the region daily Friday into next Wednesday when much of the region receives 0.40-1.60” and locally more during the period. May 28-June 3 will be dry most often with a few infrequent showers and planting should quickly increase while much of the region will need timely rain in early June to prevent the soil from quickly drying down again. The Blacklands, South Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see a wet weather pattern through May 31, with rain in parts of the region most days during the period inducing notable increases in soil moisture that will benefit south Texas most while slowing fieldwork.
Cotton traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but recent price action suggests bulls are exhausted and that a near-term market top is in place. A bearish pennant pattern may be forming on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at the contract high of 88.88 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 79.94 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 84.10 cents and then at 85.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 80.75 cents and then at the May low of 79.94 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Finish old-crop sales. We advise producers to sell an additional 20% of new-crop production to advance new-crop sales to 60%.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on 2025-crop. We advise producers to sell an additional 20% of new-crop production to advance new-crop sales to 60%.