Corn
Price action: May corn futures fell 6 1/4 cents to $4.35 3/4, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw some profit-taking from the shorter-term traders following the gains seen late last week. Solid gains in the U.S. dollar index today and weaker crude oil prices were negative outside markets for corn.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.49 MMT during the week ended Feb. 12, down 117,709 MT from the previous week but above the pre-report range of 860,000 MT to 1.3 MMT.
Brazilian farmers had planted 31% of the second safrinha corn crop as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, compared to 36% a year earlier. The first crop corn harvest was estimated to be 22% complete, behind 29% seen last year.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier trimmed his 2025-26 Brazilian corn production estimate by 1 MMT to 136 MMT, and holds a neutral bias going forward as the ideal planting window for the safrinha crop closes this coming weekend.
World Weather Inc. today said Paraguay and southern Brazil will see additional rain into the middle of next week that will result in beneficial increases in soil moisture for developing crops while fieldwork is interrupted before Feb. 27-Mar. 3 is dry most often and fieldwork increases. Rain into the middle of next week should leave the soil moist enough to support developing crops into at least early March. Much of the remainder of Brazil will see regular rounds of rain and favorable conditions for crop development through the next two weeks while fieldwork is slowed. The coming rain will be important in bolstering soil moisture for the Safrinha corn crop in advance of the dry season. In Argentina, regular rounds of rain will occur Wednesday into Sunday from San Luis and Cordoba to Entre Rios, Corrientes, Chaco, and Santiago del Estero where crops in the many areas with marginal to short soil moisture will benefit from the moisture while fieldwork is slowed. A drier weather pattern will occur Monday into March 3 and the infrequent showers expected should not prevent much of the region from drying down significantly while crops in La Pampa and Buenos Aires likely see serious stress and declines in yield potentials. Most areas to the north should have enough soil moisture to favorably support crop development into the first days of March with greater rain needed soon in many locations.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at $4.50. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the January low of $4.26 1/4. First resistance is seen at $4.40 and then at the February high of $4.43 3/4. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.34 and then at $4.30.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans gained 1/4 cent to $11.48 3/4, nearer the session high. May soybean meal fell $2.70 to $310.80, near mid-range. May soybean oil rose 29 points to 57.76, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures mostly paused today, with meal seeing some mild corrective selling pressure. A stronger U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices today did limit buying interest in the soy complex markets.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.2 MMT during the week ended Feb.12, up 57,679 MT from the previous week and nearer the top end of the pre-report range of 820,000 MT to 1.25 MMT.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier left his 2025-26 Brazilian soybean production estimate unchanged at 179 MMT, and holds a neutral to slightly higher bias. He also maintained his Argentine soybean crop estimate at 47 MMT, and holds a neutral to lower bias.
AgRural reported Brazil’s soybean harvest was 21% as of last Thursday, compared to 24% during the same period last year.
World Weather Inc. today said dry weather in center-west and center-south Brazil during the weekend and that which is expected for a while this week will be ideal in maturing soybeans and promoting their harvest. Showers and thunderstorms should resume during the weekend and continue next week. Fieldwork will advance around the precipitation.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at the November high of $11.77 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $11.56 1/4 and then at $11.65. First support is seen at $11.37 and then at $11.25.
Soybean meal bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at $320.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $292.70. First resistance comes in at last week’s high of $314.80 and then at $320.00. First support is seen at $308.00 and then at $305.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at 60.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 54.00 cents. First resistance is seen at the contract high of 58.34 cents and then at 59.00 cents. First support is seen at 57.00 cents and then at 56.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW fell 6 cents to $5.42 1/2, nearer the daily low. May HRW lost 3 1/4 cents to $5.50 1/2, near mid-range. March spring wheat futures close 3 1/2 cents lower to $5.68 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw more profit-taking pressure after prices late last week hit multi-month highs. Solid gains in the U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices today were bearish outside-market forces working against the wheat market bulls.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 375,402 MT for the week ended Feb. 12, down 205,217 MT from the previous week and near the low-end of the pre-report range of 300,000 to 500,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, very strong winds are expected today that will cause blowing dust and potential travel delays. Some wind gusts will be greater than 60 mph with potential for a few extremes of as high as 70 to 80 mph. The strongest winds are likely in eastern Colorado, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, and southwestern Kansas. Precipitation in the next seven days will be limited, but not absent. The resulting moisture from rain and snow is not expected to be very great. Well-above-average temperatures will continue today and Wednesday with more livestock stress before a cooling trend arrives. Temperatures will be below average Friday into Monday but are unlikely to be threateningly cold. In the U.S. Northern Plains, a strong area of low pressure will impact the region today into Wednesday with strong winds and areas of heavy snow. The snow will be greatest and most-impactful in northeastern production areas and will involve blizzard or near-blizzard conditions that increases livestock stress and notably delays travel. The strongest winds will occur in southwestern production areas though with some gusts of greater than 60 mph likely. Temperatures will be trending below average this week. Most of the region should receive enough snow to protect crops before the coldest air arrives; however, a close monitoring of the snow distribution will be warranted. If there are any pockets that get left exposed to threateningly cold air, they would be in northern South Dakota.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts. However, the bulls need to show fresh strength soon to keep the uptrends alive. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.76 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of $5.13 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.48 and then at last week’s high of $5.58 3/4. First support is seen at $5.35 and then at today’s low of $5.25.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $5.80. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.25. First resistance is seen at $5.60 and then at last week’s high of $5.66 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.45 3/4 and then at last week’s low of $5.37 3/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton fell 49 points to 63.64 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw more technical selling pressure from the speculators. A stronger U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil futures prices today also helped to pressure cotton futures, as did mostly weaker grain futures prices today.
World Weather Inc. today said rain returned to areas from west Texas, the southeastern Panhandle, and southwestern Oklahoma to the Blacklands and the Coastal Bend during the holiday weekend, where beneficial increases in soil moisture resulted. Dry weather will be most common through the next two weeks in the region, and the infrequent precipitation that occurs should not be great enough to prevent net losses of soil moisture during the period. Rain fell on the San Joaquin Valley during the weekend, where some increases in soil moisture occurred where totals ranged from 0.35 to 1.16 inches while a few locations in southern Arizona received light rain.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at 66.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 62.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 64.00 cents and then at last week’s high of 64.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 63.41 cents and then at the contract low of 62.86 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.