Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 13 1/4 cents to $3.94 1/2, nearer the daily low and set a fresh contract low.
Fundamental analysis: Corn traders reckoned today’s batch of USDA supply and demand data would be price-bearish—just not that bearish! The agency forecast a bin-buster record U.S. corn crop of 16.742 billion bushels. USDA’s August U.S. corn production estimate increased 1.037 billion bu. from July and was 752 million bu. bigger than analysts had expected. Average yield is forecast at a record high 188.8 bushels per acre, up 9.5 bushels from last year’s 179.3 bushels and 7.8 bushels above the July estimate. Using FSA certified acres, NASS forecast planted acres at 97.3 million acres, up 2 percent from the previous estimate and up 7 percent from the previous year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 88.7 million acres, up 2 percent from the previous forecast and up 7 percent from the previous year.
USDA reported daily sales of 315,488 MT to Mexico. Of the total, 20,830 MT is for 2024-25 and 294,658 MT is for 2025-26.
World Weather Inc. today said the Corn Belt will see another two weeks of favorable conditions for crop development and very high production potentials with drier weather advertised for Aug. 21-26 beneficial for early corn maturation.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and regained power today. Prices are in a 3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.15. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $3.75. First resistance is seen at $4.00 and then at today’s high of $4.07 3/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $3.92 and then at $3.85.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 21 1/2 cents to $10.32 3/4, near the daily high and hit a three-week high.. September soybean meal gained 60 cents to $281.40, near mid-range and hit a six-week high. September soybean oil rose 5 points to 53.24 cents, near the daily high and hit a six-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean bulls were cheered today as USDA forecast U.S. soybean production at 4.292 billion bu, just a bit lower than trade expected, at 4.368 billion bu., and compares to 4.335 billion bu. projected in the July USDA report. Yields are expected to average a record high 53.6 bushels per acre, up 2.9 bushels from 2024. Area harvested for beans in the U.S. is forecast at 80.1 million acres, down 3 percent from the previous forecast and down 7 percent from 2024. Big losses in corn and lower wheat futures prices today did somewhat temper gains in the soybean and meal markets.
Spreaders were again featured unwinding long bean oil, short meal futures spreads earlier in the session.
World Weather Inc. today said the U.S. Midwest will see another two weeks of favorable conditions for crop development and “very high production potentials” Regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through the middle of next week and many areas that have recently dried down will see a bolstering of soil moisture with nearly all of the region left with enough subsoil moisture to support crop development through the end of the month. A close watch will be made on rain into Wednesday from east-central and southeastern Missouri to western Kentucky where topsoil moisture is short and rain will be needed before crops reach maturity. Warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures will be most common through the next week with widespread, excessive heat not expected through the period.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have lost their overall near-term technical advantage and bulls gained technical momentum today. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the June high of $10.74 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $9.81 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.35 and then at this week’s high of $10.43 1/4. First support is seen at $10.10 and then at $10.00.
Soybean meal bulls have gained momentum to suggest a market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at $300.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $262.50. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $287.50 and then at $290.00. First support is seen at $280.00 and then at this week’s low of $275.60.
Bean oil bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are starting to trend down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 57.64 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 50.91 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 53.79 cents and then at last week’s high of 54.94 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 52.05 cents and then at 51.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 9 1/2 cents to $5.26, nearer the daily low and set a contract low. December HRW wheat fell 7 1/2 cents to $5.30, near mid-range. December HRS fell 7 1/2 cents to $5.95.
Fundamental analysis: Today’s USDA data was slightly bearish for wheat prices, but the big losses in corn futures today were likely responsible for most of the price pressure in wheat futures. USDA today forecast all U.S. wheat production at 1.927 billion bu.; the trade expected 1.922 billion bu. and compares with 1.929 billion bu. In the July report. USDA cut its other spring wheat estimate 20 million bu. from July but increased expected durum production 7 million bu. USDA raised its U.S. wheat yield 0.1 bu. per acre to 52.7 bu. and left harvested acres unchanged at 36.6 million.
Earlier today, Sovecon raised its forecast for the Russian wheat crop in 2025 to 85.2 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 83.3 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the Northern Plains, mostly favorable weather is expected through the next 10 days to two weeks. Rain will be greatest and most-frequent in eastern production areas, which is typical for this time of year. Montana and the western Dakotas may get a little drier and warmer than preferred in the second half of this month, but the environment will be great for early maturing crops and their harvest. In the Canadian Prairies, rainfall in the next seven days will be greatest in eastern and northern production areas which will be good for helping to increase subsoil moisture after recent rain. Net drying will occur in the southwest which shouldn’t be an issue due to good soil moisture. The drier bias in the southwest may also prove to be beneficial for the start of early season crop harvesting, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.35 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $5.43. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.24 and then at $5.15.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.37 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $5.44 3/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $5.24 and then at $5.15.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 163 points to 68.39 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a two-week high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton traders got a bullish surprise from USDA today. The agency significantly lowered its U.S. cotton production estimate by 1.386 million bales from the July projection, to 13.214 million bales. The trade expected 14.55 million bales and compares to 14.6 million bales projected in July. Traders expected only a modest production cut. USDA estimates the yield at 862 lbs. per acre, up from 809 lbs. last month. Harvested acres were reduced by 1.3 million acres, largely due to reduced plantings as found in FSA certified acres, as plantings are now estimated at 9.277 million acres.
World Weather Inc. today said rain was greater than expected in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma Monday, where many areas from the central to the southern Panhandle to northern parts of West Texas and southwestern Oklahoma received enough rain to increase soil moisture while lighter rain fell on most of the remainder of western Texas. Rainfall totals in the region described were 0.35 to 1.35 inches most often with some pockets of lighter rain along with several greater totals to near or just over 2.0 inches. Many other areas in western Texas received up to 0.15 inch of rain and locally more with some pockets of dry weather along with pockets of 0.15 to 0.75 inch and locally more in some southern parts of West Texas and the east-central and northeastern Panhandle. Rain also fell on portions of the central and northern Panhandle where totals were 0.09 to 0.88 inch.High temperatures in the west were in the upper 80s to the middle 90s Fahrenheit while other areas saw highs in the middle 90s to the lower 100s.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have gained the slight near-term technical advantage with today’s solid gains. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the August low of 65.88 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 68.47 cents and then at 69.00 cents. First support is seen at 68.00 cents and then at 67.50 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.