Corn
Price action: March corn fell 4 3/4 cents to $4.30 1/4, near the daily low and the week up 2 cents.
5-day outlook: Mach corn futures today saw profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term futures traders, after prices Thursday hit a three-week high. The data point of the week next week will be Tuesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. The February S&D report is considered by traders to be one of the more uneventful monthly WASDE releases, with surveys of analysts showing they expect very minor changes in U.S. corn stockpiles from the January report.
30-day outlook: Corn traders will continue to closely monitor growing conditions for South American crops. World Weather Inc. today said Paraguay and southern Brazil will benefit from and regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms into Feb. 19, with exceptions in Paraguay Wednesday into the following Sunday when rain is restricted again. Most of the coming rain will not be heavy and will sometimes be poorly distributed, but rain will fall frequently enough to ease crop stress and induce increases in soil moisture while slowing fieldwork. Much of the remainder of Brazil will see regular rounds of rain and favorable conditions for crop development through the next two weeks while fieldwork is slowed, especially from Mato Grosso to Sao Paulo and southern Minas Gerais and nearby areas where rain will be frequent and fieldwork will be sluggish. In Argentina, southern regions will see little rain of significance into at least late next week and stress to crops should gradually increase in areas that received significant rain earlier this week while steady increases in crop stress occur in areas that were dry or received light rain. Totally dry weather is not expected and some showers along with a lack of excessive heat will prevent rapid increases in crop stress. Central and northern Argentina will see regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms during the next two weeks slowing fieldwork and allowing for mostly favorable conditions for crop development, but the drier areas in Entre Rios will see several more days of little rain and rising levels of crop stress.
90-day outlook: As springtime comes into view, grain trader focus will shift from South American weather to U.S. weather. USDA’s late-March Prospective Plantings Report and its results will also be a next major market driver. Key outside markets will also impact daily price action in corn. Price action in crude oil has been driven by headlines around the ongoing discussions between Iran and the U.S. The U.S. dollar index has also posted a strong rebound from its January low, suggesting more upside for the greenback in the coming weeks.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans rose 3 cents to $11.15 1/4, nearer the daily low and for the week were up 51 cents. March soybean meal rose 40 cents to $303.60, nearer the daily low after hitting a six-week high early on. For the week, March meal was up $10.00. March bean oil fell 32 points to 55.33 cents, nearer the session low after hitting a six-month high early on. For the week, March bean oil was up 182 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean complex futures saw some profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term futures traders today but the bulls, overall, had a good week. Next Tuesday comes the monthly USDA supply and demand report for February, with analysts surveyed expecting very little changes in U.S. soybean stocks from the January report. The early sales of 2025-26 soybean harvest by members of Coamo, the biggest grain cooperative in Brazil, have dropped behind the pace seen during the same period of its greatest seasons, according to Coamo’s executive president Airton Galinari.
30-day outlook: Soybean traders are closely watching weather conditions in South American soybean-growing regions. World Weather Inc. today said drying in far southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and eastern Argentina into next week will raise some concern for soybeans, corn and other crops because some of those areas are already too dry. Some needed rain is possible thereafter in the second half of next week and into the following weekend. Southwestern Argentina has seen some rain, although more is needed.
90-day outlook: The soybean complex futures were boosted the week after President Trump said China is looking to buy more U.S. soybeans this year. Given today’s price action in futures, traders appeared to take more of a “show me” attitude to future China purchases of U.S. beans. Daily and weekly U.S. export sales reports will be monitored extra closely the next few months—looking for stepped-up China bean buys. The late-March USDA planting intentions report will be one of the most important USDA data points of the year.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW wheat lost 5 1/2 cents to $5.29 3/4, nearer the daily low and for the week down 8 1/4 cents. March HRW wheat fell 7 1/4 cents to $5.31 1/4, nearer the daily low and on the week down 13 1/2 cents. March spring wheat futures fell 1 3/4 cents to $5.69 3/4, nearer the daily low and for the week down 8 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets sold off today as the corn market posted losses and the soybean market lost its good early gains. The main data point for the wheat market next week will be Tuesday’s USDA supply and demand report for February, which surveyed analysts expect to show only very minor changes in U.S. wheat stockpiles from the January report.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said the U.S. central and southern Plains received limited to no precipitation during the past week. Temperatures were seasonable to seasonably warm at times and started to firm the topsoil in most locations. Another week of drier weather is slated for hard red winter wheat country with temperatures climbing above to well above normal. Drying rates will be much higher compared to the past week and drought is expected to expand and intensify. The need for significant rain and milder temperatures will be high later this month and early March to support better long-term development conditions. There is potential for increased precipitation during the February 14 – 20 period, which could offer minor relief from the drying trend for some, though not enough to improve long-term soil conditions.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index has made a strong recovery after hitting a four-year low in late January. If the greenback continues to appreciate in the coming months, such would be a bearish element for the U.S. wheat markets, which already struggle on the world trade markets from a competitive price perspective.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton futures fell 70 points to 61.06 cents, nearer the session low, hit a contract low and for the week were down 211 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market today saw stepped-up technical selling pressure from the speculators amid firmly bearish charts. The National Cotton Council will hold its annual meeting in San Antonio, Texas next week. Preliminary meetings will begin on Tuesday afternoon, February 10, including the American Cotton Producers Business Session and several standing committees of the Council’s Board. The general session of Council delegates will be held on Thursday morning, February 12. The NCC will also release its estimate for this year’s U.S. cotton production.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting in early March. West Texas recently benefited from snow and the moisture that resulted from it, but more moisture is needed in the region. Some showers may evolve in west Texas briefly late next week. Rain is also needed in Arizona and neighboring areas of Mexico and California. Mountain snowpack in the southern Rocky Mountain region will be less than usual this spring. Drought will continue from parts of Florida and southeastern Alabama into the eastern Carolinas, despite some recent snow and moisture boost resulting from it. Meantime, rain will soon fall in New South Wales, Australia offering some relief to recent dryness. Cotton conditions should improve, although it is unclear how much impact the recent hot and dry conditions have had on production. Queensland is unlikely to get much moisture and its western dryland crop has struggled with dryness most of the growing season possibly resulting in lower production. Late season cotton in southern India continues to be harvested. Any showers that occur in the next ten days will fail to produce enough rain to threaten unharvested crop quality. Developing El Nino later this summer may have an impact on India summer rainfall and that will be closely monitored.
90-day outlook: While lower cotton prices have spurred an increase in export interest for U.S. cotton, subdued prices are likely to discourage 2026 plantings. The recent strong rebound in the U.S. dollar index is also a negative element for the cotton market.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.