Growing soybeans in Ohio this year has been a bit of a roller coaster ride.
“We faced some wet weather early, especially in the month of May where it was cold and wet,” says Steve Reinhard, a north-central Ohio farmer in Bucyrus. “At the end of May, we got in and finished up corn and soybeans. Things really look pretty decent right now. I think conditions are probably a little more varied in Ohio than maybe some other places.”
Wading Through Challenges
While farmers such as Reinhard are focused on big yields, they have been wading through a number of challenges this year.
In addition to $10 soybeans, tariffs are hanging over the export outlook — an important factor considering about half of the soybeans growing across the U.S. will be exported.
“Soybeans are still United States ag’s No. 1 export industry at about $31 billion provided back to the economy. It’s definitely a market we’re looking at while also stressing more domestic use as well,” says Reinhard, a former chair of the United Soybean Board (USB).
The Current Export Picture
In April, the trade war with China seemed to be heating up. A tariff tit-for-tat caused U.S. soybeans to face a tariff rate of nearly 115%. While short-lived, China still hasn’t been back to the table to buy U.S. soybeans. Even in the wake of the high tariffs in April, the reality was China remains the top export destination for U.S. farmers — even if the country isn’t buying as many soybeans as it did in 2018.
According to Pro Farmer reports:
- China imported 10.62 MMT of soybeans from Brazil in June, about 86.6% of total imports and up from 9.72 MMT a year ago.
- China imported 1.58 MMT from the U.S., about 12.9% of total imports for June and up from 1.31 MMT a year ago.
The good news is soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 marketing year have seen an uptick lately. According to Terrain, the recent sales contributing to the growth have been from a combination of “other Asia,” “unknown” and “Western Hemisphere” regions.
“The ‘other Asia’ is several countries, including Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam mostly. The ‘Western Hemisphere’ category is almost entirely Mexico,” says Marc Rosenbohm, senior grain and oilseed analyst for Terrain.
When it comes to the “unknown” destinations, he doesn’t want to speculate.
"[Sales] are still at fairly low levels, but hopefully we can keep the momentum going as we get closer to the start of the marketing year,” Rosenbohm says.
Drumming Up More Domestic Demand
Not losing sight of growing exports, while finding more domestic demand, is a focus for USB at a critical time.
“I think the big one we can look at is feed use in the United States,” Reinhard says. “As we look at the increased demand for soybean oil — when we crush the soybean, we get oil and meal. So, we need to look at how we can put more meal into the animal agriculture industry.”
The Top Domestic Customer
From poultry to pork, animal agriculture is the largest end user of soybeans — with livestock consuming 97% of soybean meal produced in the U.S. Keeping that in mind, USB is working to find ways to bring more benefits to animals.
“For instance, in the pork diet, we’re providing antiviral and anti-inflammatory benefits to those younger pigs. We’re able to help with respiratory diseases and improve summer health of the animals, especially under the severe heat stress,” Reinhard says.
One area demand growth is gaining traction is in dairies.
“When we came up with the high oleic [soybean], we were looking at the human health aspects of no trans fat, no saturated fat and great for cooking. What we didn’t intend is how that benefits the dairy industry,” he adds. “It provides a really big improvement on milk fat yield. That’s one of the components dairy gets paid on, and we hope to expand that market as well.”
High oleic soybeans have been on the market since 2012, but the latest discovery is proof researchers are continuing to uncover new and useful benefits for the variety of soybeans bred to have a higher percentage of oleic acid in their oil.
“I think we’re starting to scratch the surface on what high oleic soybeans can do,” Reinhard says. “There are some things high oleic can’t do that conventional soy can since it’s a little bit different oil composition.”
Fueling Demand in a Big Way
Finding new domestic uses for American-grown soybeans is something that gives this Ohio farmer hope. But what is he most excited about? It’s the possible boost in biofuels.
EPA set the stage for a big boost to biofuels in June. That’s when the agency released its proposed blending mandates for biomass-based diesel in the renewable fuel standard. The proposal would increase biomass-based diesel requirements from 3.25 billion gallons in 2025 to 5.61 gallons in 2026. If made final, it would be a potential game changer for soybean farmers.
“Everybody’s going to be happy with the fact we’re going to increase the proposed volume requirement by 67% to 5.61 billion gallons,” says Peter Meyer, principal economist and partner, Muddy Boots Ag LLC. “Now the question is, does that mean we’re going to have to use every available pound of soybean oil toward renewable diesel? It certainly will be. There’s no question.”
Meyer says EPA’s proposal and the potential boost in demand for soybean oil could also drive soybean acreage higher in 2026.
A Game Changer for Farmers
Another big component of EPA’s proposed rule is the fact EPA also wants to restrict the amount of imported foreign feedstocks used in renewable fuels production. According to Marc Rosenbohm, senior grain and oilseed analyst for Terrain, that would put U.S. production of renewable fuels made from U.S. feedstocks, such as soybeans, at a significant advantage.
“We expect soybean oil to play a significant role here,” Rosenbohm says. “Part of that uncertainty is exactly what level it might play related to the RVO proposal. So, I think getting that finalized first will be important for knowing exactly what level of soybean oil we need.”
USDA acknowledged that potential growth in the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report earlier this month, forecasting a record 53% of soybean oil usage in the U.S. will go to biofuels.
“They brought up biofuel use of soybean oil to 15.5 billion pounds, which now exceeds the food consumption category — which I think is an important psychological piece of it. We are using a lot of soybean oil for biofuel use, as incentivized by those policies. They also did increase crush to a little over 2.5 billion bushels,” Rosenbohm says.
For AgResource’s president and founder Dan Basse, it’s the boost in biofuels that would fuel the demand story in soybeans — especially if exports continue to navigate tariff threats and uncertainty on trade.
“I believe we need to continue to think about the future opportunities in green fuels and build out that sector,” Basse says. “United States agriculture will struggle with trade unless the Trump administration is able to open up some of these markets. So, my mindset is, looking outside the United States, there’s still tremendous growth in green fuels.”
It’s Not Growing Exports or Domestic Demand: It’s Both
For Reinhard, it’s not whether the soybean industry should focus on growing domestic demand or growing exports. It’s an unwavering focus on both that will drive prices and demand.
“You have an administration now that’s working with different countries to provide different trading opportunities. As we go forward, I think we continue to see our yields increase over time,” Reinhard says. “I don’t see our production going down or being stagnant. So, I think we still need to continue to work on all of our markets and use the great production and ingenuity the U.S. farmer brings forward.”