Policy Updates: USDA projects smaller ag deficit in 2026, despite China exports falling to 2007 levels

USDA’s latest outlook, released yesterday, projects the U.S. ag trade deficit at $47 billion in FY25, narrowing slightly from earlier estimates, and falling to $41.5 billion in FY26.

ProFarmer - Policy News Markets Update.jpg
Pro Farmer Policy News Markets Update
(Lindsey Pound)
  • USDA projects smaller trade deficit, but soybean exports slide (Illinois Farm Policy News, Agri-Pulse, Bloomberg, AgWeb): USDA’s latest outlook, released yesterday, projects the U.S. ag trade deficit at $47 billion in FY25, narrowing slightly from earlier estimates, and falling to $41.5 billion in FY26 as imports are expected to decline faster than exports. Even with the improvement, the deficit would still sit well above FY24’s $32 billion. USDA estimates farm exports will reach $173 billion in FY25 before dipping to $169 billion in FY26, while imports drop from $220 billion this year to $210.5 billion in FY26.

    The biggest hit is in soybeans. USDA projects exports will fall to $18.3 billion in FY26, down from $21.5 billion in FY25 and $24.2 billion in FY24. Exports to China are forecast to sink from $17 billion in FY25 to just $9 billion in FY26, the lowest since 2007, leaving Mexico and Canada as the top U.S. markets. Economists note the gap reflects different product categories—bulk crops going out, fruits and vegetables coming in—but the steep decline in soybean sales to China underscores the strain from ongoing trade tensions.

  • Court strikes down H-2A wage rule (Agri-Pulse): A federal judge in Louisiana has overturned a 2023 Labor Department rule that changed how wages are set for H-2A guest workers. The rule required pay rates to be based on Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys instead of USDA’s Farm Labor Survey, which farm groups argued pushed wages higher for routine farm tasks like truck driving or fence repair.

    The ruling, first limited to Louisiana sugar cane growers, now applies nationwide to all H-2A employers. The American Sugar Cane League, which brought the case, said the old rule wrongly reclassified farm jobs and drove up costs. The Labor Department did not oppose the final judgment and is expected to propose new rulemaking on how H-2A wage rates are set.

  • USDA announces plan to address rural vet shortage (Morning Ag Clips): Secretary Brooke Rollins announced new steps to tackle the nationwide shortage of large-animal veterinarians. USDA rolled out a Rural Veterinary Action Plan that will expand loan repayment and grant programs, boost recruitment and retention of USDA vets, and improve data collection on rural vet needs. The plan also includes cataloging financing tools for new rural vet clinics and holding listening sessions with producers, universities, and local groups to better understand barriers to bringing vets into rural practice.

    As part of the effort, USDA awarded two $125,000 Veterinary Services Grants to practices in Mississippi to expand livestock care and improve farm-call capacity. Rollins also opened a new USDA office in partnership with Farm Service Agency, Rural Development, and the Mississippi Farm Bureau, aimed at giving farmers a one-stop shop for federal programs. Farm leaders and lawmakers stressed that access to rural veterinarians is critical for animal health, food safety, and keeping U.S. agriculture competitive.