Policy Updates | Trump seeking ‘real end’ to Israel/Iran conflict

Updates on trade deals, negotiations with UK, Canada and Japan.

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Updates: Policy/News/Markets
(Pro Farmer)

Trump wants ‘real end’ to Israel/Iran conflict... President Donald Trump said he wanted a “a real end, not a ceasefire, an end” to the conflict between Israel and Iran and indicated he may send senior U.S. officials to meet with the Islamic Republic as the Israel/Iran air war raged for a fifth straight day.

Trump predicted Israel would not ease its attacks on Iran.

Washington has said Trump was still aiming for a nuclear deal with Iran, even as the military confrontation unfolds.

World leaders meeting at the Group of Seven summit called for a de-escalation of the worst-ever conflict between the regional foes, saying Iran was a source of instability and must never have a nuclear weapon while affirming Israel’s right to defend itself. Trump, who left the summit early due to the Middle East situation, said his departure had “nothing to do with” working on a deal between Israel and Iran.

Trump signs executive order to implement U.S./UK trade deal... Trump signed an executive order to give British carmakers an annual quota of 100,000 cars that can be sent to the U.S. at a 10% tariff rate. The order also eliminates tariffs on the UK aerospace industry, including parts and planes. The deal expands U.S. market access for agricultural products, including beef and ethanol, while maintaining UK food standards.

The UK will remove its 20% retaliatory tariff on U.S. beef and set quotas for tariff-free imports of U.S. beef and ethanol.

The issue of steel and aluminum remains unresolved for now. The U.S. intends to impose a quota on steel and aluminum imports from the UK that would be exempt from 25% tariffs, but it is conditioned upon Britain’s demonstrating security on steel supply chains and production facilities, according to an executive order released by the White House. The quota level will be set by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, the White House said.

Trump, Carney optimistic on U.S./Canada trade deal... Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the U.S. and Canada are focused on global challenges and immediate trade pressures, including priorities for building a new economic and security relationship between the two countries. Further U.S./Canada talks are scheduled for later this week, after the G7 confab is over.

Trump voiced confidence that a trade deal with Canada is “achievable” in the coming weeks, divergent approaches. He prefers tariffs for their “simplicity,” while Carney advocates a more complex but “very good” alternative.

If a deal cannot be reached, Carney has hinted at potential retaliation, noting his restraint in not increasing counter-tariffs after Trump raised U.S. steel and aluminum duties to 50%.

Trump, Ishiba fail to reach trade deal at G7 summit... Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba failed to clinch a trade agreement on the sidelines of the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, an outcome that leaves Japan exposed to mounting U.S. tariffs and economic uncertainty. Despite weeks of intensive negotiations — including multiple phone calls between Trump and Ishiba, and several trips to Washington by Japan’s chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa — the two leaders remain at odds, with key sticking points over auto and steel tariffs unresolved.

Ishiba, addressing reporters after the summit, emphasized Japan’s determination to protect its national interests: “We will continue to actively coordinate with the United States to reach an agreement that is beneficial for both countries, without sacrificing Japan’s national interests.”

Trump, meanwhile, said he had a “great conversation” with Ishiba, but signaled the U.S. is prepared to unilaterally raise tariffs if Japan does not meet American demands: “Ultimately you have to understand we’re just going to send a letter saying this is what you’re going to pay, otherwise you don’t have to do business with us.”

Japan is already facing a 25% U.S. tariff on cars and auto parts, a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, and a 10% levy on other goods that is set to rise to 24% in early July. The prospect of higher tariffs comes as Japan’s economy teeters on the brink of recession.

Though Ishiba has pledged to boost Japanese investment in the U.S. and has cited Japan’s status as the largest foreign investor in the American economy, these efforts have yet to yield substantive tariff relief. Trump’s recent approval of Nippon Steel’s purchase of United States Steel Corp. was seen as a positive step, but both sides remain far apart on eliminating U.S. tariffs.

With no official plans for another Trump/Ishiba meeting before the July tariff hike, talks will continue at the ministerial level.

Senate Republicans unveil major tax and Medicaid overhaul... Senate Republicans’ tax proposal, spearheaded by Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), aims to make the 2017 corporate tax cuts permanent and introduces sweeping reductions to Medicaid.

The Senate bill like the House measure would extend the 45Z credit through 2031 and exclude any emissions associated with indirect land use change from being used in calculating eligibility for the credit. Of note: The Senate version does not include language from the House bill terminating transferability after 2027. Regarding domestically produced feedstocks, the House bill would prevent the credit from applying to fuels made with feedstocks outside the U.S., Canada or Mexico. The Senate measure proposes cutting the value of the credit for fuels made with feedstocks grown outside the U.S. by 20%. Also, the credit value for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) would drop from $1.75 to $1.00, equalizing the value for all eligible fuel types.

The Senate version would extend the credit value of 40B for SAF to apply to fuels sold between Dec. 31, 2024, and the end of September.

H-2A visa reform: The Farm Workforce Modernization Act... Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) is at the forefront of efforts to reform the H-2A agricultural worker visa program, championing the Farm Workforce Modernization Act — a bipartisan bill designed to address long-standing challenges in America’s farm labor system. With the president’s recent endorsement of farm labor reform, Newhouse sees renewed hope for passing long-awaited legislation.

Key Features of the Farm Workforce Modernization Act

  • Certified Agricultural Worker (CAW) Status: Provides a pathway for undocumented farmworkers to obtain legal status if they meet employment and background check requirements. CAW status lasts 5.5 years, is renewable, and offers a route to permanent residency after further agricultural work.
  • H-2A program updates:
    o Adjusts wage calculations to reduce volatility and sets recruitment standards for U.S. workers before foreign hires.
    o Guarantees a minimum number of work hours for H-2A employees.
    o Expands eligibility to year-round industries like dairy, not just seasonal jobs.
  • Portable H-2A Visa Pilot: Launches a pilot allowing 10,000 H-2A workers to move between registered agricultural employers, increasing flexibility for farms and workers.
  • Mandatory E-Verify: Requires all agricultural employers to use electronic employment verification, aiming to reduce unauthorized hiring.
  • Farmworker Housing Support: Permanently authorizes programs to finance and assist in rural and off-farm housing for agricultural workers.

The bill has passed the House in previous sessions with bipartisan support, reflecting months of negotiation with farmers, labor groups, and worker advocates. Proponents argue the reforms are essential for resolving critical labor shortages and ensuring a stable food supply. However, the measure still faces challenges in the Senate, and some industry groups seek further changes on wage and worker protection provisions. Newhouse and his allies remain determined to find common ground, emphasizing the urgent need for action as the agricultural workforce crisis grows.

Outlook: With White House backing, momentum behind the Farm Workforce Modernization Act is building. Rep. Newhouse and supporters are hopeful that 2025 could finally bring comprehensive H-2A visa reform, delivering lasting benefits for both farm employers and the workers who sustain America’s food system. Of note: The Trump administration is also reportedly reviewing some executive changes to the program.