Senate prepares for marathon weekend on budget reconciliation bill... The Senate is pressing ahead with plans to take up the sweeping budget reconciliation package, informally dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” as early as this weekend. A motion to proceed could come Saturday, with a marathon “vote-a-rama” session likely starting Sunday and stretching into Monday. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and President Donald Trump have both warned Senators that the chamber will not adjourn for the July 4 recess until the bill is passed. While the Senate Ag Committee successfully revised its Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) provisions to secure approval from the Senate parliamentarian, the bill’s Medicaid savings — totaling up to $290 billion — remain in limbo after being struck down by the parliamentarian. Negotiations on Medicaid language are ongoing. Even if the Senate manages to pass the package by early next week, Republican leaders face further hurdles in the House, where some members have already signaled opposition to accepting the Senate’s version. With razor-thin majorities in both chambers, GOP leadership faces a tough road to final passage.
White House downplays July 9 trade deadline as Trump holds tariff power... The White House signaled the July 9 deadline for trade negotiations is “not critical,” emphasizing President Donald Trump’s authority to unilaterally set tariff rates if U.S. trading partners do not present acceptable agreements. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration has sent “friendly reminders” to dozens of countries to submit their best trade offers before the current tariff pause expires. Leavitt reiterated that negotiations are ongoing and the 90-day suspension of “reciprocal” tariffs — introduced after market volatility in April — remains in effect. She underscored that if partners do not act, the president can “simply provide these countries with a deal,” highlighting Trump’s readiness to impose country-specific tariffs, some as high as 50%, should talks stall. The administration maintains it is on track to secure tailored, beneficial deals, but Leavitt made clear that Trump’s executive authority allows for swift unilateral action if needed. Of note: Trump could still extend the date at which reciprocal tariffs would take effect if no agreements were reached. Stephen Miran, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said the U.S. is prepared to extend tariff deadlines for countries that are negotiating in good faith and making tangible progress in trade talks. As noted, the current self-imposed tariff deadline is July 9, marking the end of a 90-day negotiation window. Miran indicated this deadline is “not critical” and could be pushed back for countries that are sincerely working toward a deal. “You don’t want to jeopardize a deal that is underway and making genuine, sincere strides by imposing a tariff bomb on it,” he said.
EU weighs lower tariffs on U.S. goods to secure Trump trade deal... The European Union is actively considering cutting tariffs on a range of U.S. imports as part of a strategy to quickly clinch a trade deal with President Trump, according to reports. EU leaders met in Brussels on Thursday evening to debate how far they are willing to go to win over the Trump administration, with options including reducing nontariff barriers, increasing purchases of American goods like liquefied natural gas and cooperating with the U.S. on economic concerns about China. The pace of negotiations has accelerated following Trump’s threat in May to impose 50% tariffs on the EU, a move he paused to allow talks to continue until July 9. Many European officials now believe Trump’s 10% baseline tariffs are likely to remain and are seeking product-specific exemptions to limit the economic impact. Germany and Italy are leading a push for a rapid preliminary agreement that could be expanded in future negotiations, focusing especially on relief for industries hardest hit by existing tariffs — such as cars, chemicals, machinery and steel. However, reaching a deal remains politically fraught. Some member states are wary of signing an agreement seen as overly favorable to the U.S., and differences persist over U.S. demands for changes to EU digital and environmental regulations. While the U.S. recently circulated a draft “agreement on reciprocal trade,” EU officials see it as an opening offer rather than a final text, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has insisted the bloc’s sovereign decision-making is “absolutely untouchable.” Despite some progress, significant sticking points remain — particularly over nontariff barriers and the future of sectoral tariffs targeting EU automobile and steel exports. The EU is also preparing potential countermeasures, with an approved package of tariffs targeting $24 billion in U.S. imports and a second list in development that could reach $102 billion if negotiations collapse. Bottom Line: Whether a deal is reached will likely hinge on Trump being able to declare a political victory and EU member states agreeing on the scope and substance of the final compromise.
Senate parliamentarian clears key SNAP and cost-share reforms... The Senate parliamentarian has approved the Ag Committee’s revised provisions for state cost-share and SNAP eligibility for non-citizens, confirming they comply with the Byrd rule and may proceed as part of budget legislation. The updated plan gives states flexibility to use either their fiscal year (FY) 2025 or 2026 payment error rate to determine their cost-share requirement starting in FY 2028, shifting in later years to a rolling formula based on the rate from three years earlier. States with payment error rates above 6% will be required to contribute a set share of SNAP benefit costs, with error rates published annually each June. The reforms aim to incentivize states to improve program accuracy and ensure resources are directed to those most in need. Of note: The Senate Ag Committee’s updated farm bill plan would reduce federal agriculture spending by about $186 billion — most of it from SNAP. This figure is less than the initial $211 billion proposed cut but still far exceeds the committee’s original $1 billion savings target. Meanwhile, the House Ag Committee is pursuing even deeper reductions, totaling $295 billion. The Senate is awaiting a final cost estimate from the Congressional Budget Office to determine the exact savings impact.
House members press Senate to align 45Z credit with its version... A bipartisan group of seven House lawmakers from Iowa, Minnesota and Ohio is urging the Senate Finance Committee to revise its Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z) language in the reconciliation package to match provisions passed by the House. In a letter obtained by Politico, the lawmakers call for the Senate to prevent the 45Z credit from being claimed for fuel produced using imported feedstocks from outside USMCA countries, and to add a bonus for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
“The House-passed provisions strike the right balance by upholding U.S. trade and energy interests, supporting rural economies and domestic producers, and prioritizing investment in emerging technologies like SAF that can keep America at the forefront of global energy leadership,” the letter states.