Policy Updates: Farmer aid package expected as early as today amid China trade fallout

Farmer aid package expected as early as today amid China trade fallout (New York Times): The Trump administration is once again turning to tariffs on Chinese imports in an attempt to gain leverage in trade negotiations. Just like in 2018, this move has triggered retaliation from China, which has significantly cut back its purchases of U.S. agricultural products like soybeans and sorghum—products that many American farmers heavily depend on exporting. With farm incomes already under pressure from rising input costs and falling crop prices, the impact of losing China as a top customer is hitting especially hard. A new government aid package is expected soon, though details remain uncertain.

Farmers are finding themselves in a similar situation as they did during the last trade war: caught in the crossfire. In Trump’s first term, the administration gave over $20 billion in aid to offset the losses caused by Chinese tariffs. This time, the estimated need is even greater—possibly up to $50 billion—but it’s unclear where the funds will come from. The usual source, the Commodity Credit Corporation, is nearly empty. There’s talk of using tariff revenue, but legal hurdles may stand in the way. Meanwhile, China is turning to countries like Brazil and Argentina for their crop imports.

Many farmers, while grateful for any assistance, say that aid checks are not a replacement for real market access. Most would rather be selling their crops to willing buyers than relying on government payments to stay afloat. With prices for corn, wheat, cotton, and soybeans now below production costs, and high costs for fertilizer, seed, and machinery, 2025 is shaping up to be another tough year. As harvest continues, farmers are calling for support, but even with help, some may not make it through without lasting damage to their operations.