Fed's Key Inflation Rate Cooled More Than Expected in February

Treasury Dept. finally releases info re: EV subsidies
 

Former President Donald Trump becomes the first president to face criminal charges. A Manhattan grand jury indicted Trump over his role in paying hush money to a porn star, making him the first former president to face criminal charges, with ramifications for the 2024 presidential race, policymaking and more. 

Charlie Cook: Trump's path to the GOP nomination could depend on how his MAGA base reacts to an indictment. More in Politics & Elections section.

The personal consumption expenditure price index in the U.S. increased 0.3% month-over-month in February 2023, easing from a 0.6% rise in January. The cost of goods went up 0.2%, slowing from a 0.6% rise in January and services cost increased 0.3%, less than a 0.6% increase in the prior month. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index advanced 0.3%, slower than the 0.5% rise in January.

Personal income in the U.S. rose by 0.3% from a month earlier in February 2023, easing from a 0.6% gain in January but slightly beating market expectations of 0.2% growth. The increase in income was led by rises in compensation, mainly from wages and salaries. Private wages and salaries for services-producing industries and government wages and salaries increased.

Personal spending in the U.S. rose by 0.2% from a month earlier in February 2023, following an upwardly revised 2.0% increase in the previous period and slightly missing market forecasts of a 0.3% growth. The latest increase reflected an advance of $25.8 billion in spending for services and an increase of $2.0 billion in spending for goods. Within services, increases in housing and health care were partly offset by a decrease in food services and accommodations. Within goods, increases in gasoline and other energy goods, “other” nondurable goods (led by pharmaceuticals), and food and beverages were partly offset by a decrease in motor vehicles and parts (mainly new and used light trucks).

Eurozone inflation slows to over 1-year low. The Eurozone inflation rate eased to 6.9% in March, its lowest level since February 2022 and slightly below the market consensus of 7.1%, as the cost of energy declined. Still, the food prices and the core index hit a fresh record high, putting pressure on European Central Bank to further hike rates.

Biden administration finally releases guidance on EV subsidies. See Energy Policy section.

In a 225-204 vote, the House passed the GOP's energy package largely on party lines, with four Democrats joining Republicans to vote for the bill and one Republican lawmaker voting against it. While the bill does not have a chance of passage in the Democratic-controlled Senate — and President Joe Biden has guaranteed a veto — the Lower Energy Costs Act could be the starting point for negotiations on streamlining permitting rules for energy projects.

Today, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack and White House climate adviser Ali Zaidi will announce “significant funding ... to build critical infrastructure that will expand access to clean energy in rural communities.”

More than a kerfuffle occurred when House Ag Appropriations Subcommittee Chair Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.) sparred with USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack during a Thursday hearing. In opening the hearing, Harris said the USDA had “unilaterally” increased SNAP benefits through “a quick, politically driven” recalculation of the cost of a healthy diet, and had “treated the Commodity Credit Corp. like a slush fund to advance political priorities not directed by Congress,” among them the 141 climate-smart pilot projects. “This reckless unauthorized use of taxpayer dollars deserves scrutiny in today’s hearing and calls into question whether this administration can be trusted with any discretionary authority under the Corporation’s Charter Act in future fiscal years,” said Harris. More on that and topics addressed during a Thursday hearing in Policy section.

Corn and soybean farmers in more than 1,200 additional U.S. counties will be eligible for a crop insurance option in 2024 that provides coverage against an unexpected decrease in operating margins. More under Policy section.

Finland cleared its last hurdle to joining NATO after Turkey approved its entry into the security alliance.

The FTC is reportedly investigating America’s largest alcohol distributor over how wine and liquor are priced across the U.S.

President Biden will travel to Rolling Rock, Miss., to announce that the federal government will cover the full cost of the state's emergency measures for 30 days, after a storm last week killed 26 people and destroyed homes and other infrastructure. The funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency will cover debris removal, shelter operations and first responder overtime pay. Biden is scheduled to depart the White House at 8 a.m. ET en route to Rolling Fork, Miss., where he will be briefed at 12:25 p.m. by authorities on response and recovery efforts following storms that devastated the area. He will deliver remarks at 2:25 p.m., after meeting with community leaders and local residents impacted by the storms.

Equities today: Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. Dow opened around 115 points higher.   

     U.S. equities yesterday: The Dow finished up 141.43 points, 0.43%, at 32,859.03. The Nasdaq gained 87.24 points, 0.73%, at 12,013.47. The S&P 500 rose 23.02 points, 0.57%, at 4,050.83.

     The Nasdaq is up nearly 15% for the first quarter, while the broad S&P 500 is up more than 5%. The Dow, however, is down nearly 1% for the quarter.

Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: May corn futures fell 1 cent to $6.49 1/2 and the near the session low.  
• Soy complex: May soybean futures closed 2 3/4 cents lower at $14.74 2/4. May soybean meal had its lowest-volume day this week and settled $1.7 higher at $459.9. May soyoil saw losses of 101 points and settled at 54.37 cents, nearer the low of the day’s range.
• Wheat: May SRW fell 12 1/2 cents to $6.92 1/4, a low-range close, while May HRW rose 1 cent to $8.71 1/2 and May spring wheat rose 1 3/4 cents to $8.79 3/4.  
• Cotton: May cotton rose 74 points to 83.50 cents. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a three-week high.
• Cattle: Nearby April live cattle futures climbed $1.725 to $167.550, while the June contract gained $1.35 to $161.00. Expiring March feeder futures rallied 95 cents to $192.4 while the May future jumped $1.70 to $204.45. Packers have begun raising their bids for cash cattle, causing trade at $167.00 in the Southern Plains and $168.00 to $170.00 in the northern market.  
• Hogs: Nearby April hog futures slid 32.5 cents to $76.45 Thursday, while most-active June futures advanced 77.5 cents to $91.60.
   

Ag markets today: Price action was relatively quiet in the grain and soy markets overnight as traders await key USDA report data later this morning. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading around a penny higher, soybeans were 1 to 3 cents higher, winter wheat futures were 3 to 4 cents lower and spring wheat was 6 to 7 cents lower. Front-month crude oil futures were around 50 cents higher, and the U.S. dollar index was about 250 points higher.

Viewpoints from Jim Wyckoff: “Today is the last trading day of the month and of the first quarter, which makes it an extra important trading day from a technical perspective. Gold bulls had their best trading month since July of 2020.”

European inflation remains stubbornly high. Consumer prices rose 6.9% on an annualized basis across the Eurozone in March, below analysts’ forecasts. But core inflation accelerated, a sign that Europe’s cost-of-living crisis is not easing.

Market perspectives:

     • Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was firmer, with the euro and British pound both weaker against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was near its Thursday closing mark around 3.55%, with a mixed tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil firmed, with U.S. crude trading around $74.95 per barrel and Brent around $78.95 per barrel. Gold and silver futures were little changed with gold around $1,997 per troy ounce and silver around $24.03 per troy ounce. ·       

     • The price for a key nitrogen fertilizer dropped 26% on robust supply and dwindling demand. The spot Tampa anhydrous ammonia contract for April fell to $435 a metric ton cost and freight, down from $590 in March, according to Bloomberg’s Green Markets. Prices have probably hit a floor, analyst Alexis Maxwell said, but they aren’t likely to rise significantly again soon. That means it’s a good time to scoop up product, she said. Farmers have held back buying nutrients as the price of natural gas, the main input for most nitrogen fertilizer, has been declining, in hopes that retail costs will fall. Wholesale prices of Tampa ammonia, the world’s benchmark, have plummeted 73% from a high last April, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine roiled multiple supply chains affecting global fertilizer trade and production. The drop indicates retail prices will ease, even if there’s a lag. That brightens the outlook for grain harvests needed to replenish the world’s war-strained food reserves. “We believe the worst has passed” for farmers, Maxwell said. “If I were a retailer looking to buy from a producer, I’d secure my supply for the farmers.”

     • NWS weather outlook: Severe thunderstorms likely and flash flooding possible from the Midwest to the Lower Mississippi Valley today... ...Heavy snow and blizzard conditions forecast from the northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes through early Saturday... ...Critical Fire Weather concerns and high winds across the Southern High Plains over the next several days... ...High winds and severe thunderstorms possible on Saturday across the Appalachians and Interior Northeast.

Items in Pro Farmer's First Thing Today include:

     • Quiet grain trade ahead of USDA reports
     • Prospective Plantings, Grain Stocks Reports out today
     • Neutral H&P Report
     • Cash cattle trade sharply higher
     • Cash hog slide continues

— A Swiss court convicts bankers of helping a Putin ally hide millions. Four officials from the Swiss office of Gazprombank were accused of failing to conduct due diligence on accounts opened by a concert cellist who has been nicknamed “Putin’s wallet.” The case was seen as a test of Switzerland’s willingness to discipline bankers for wrongdoing.

—  A Ukrainian nuclear plant is at risk as forces gear up for a spring offensive. Military activity is increasing around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear-power plant, according to international atomic-energy officials, raising the risk of a nuclear catastrophe. Rafael Grossi, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said that shelling from November had damaged the buildings that house two of the plant’s reactors. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Moscow is in contact with Grossi and had laid out its proposals for what he described as a safety zone around the plant, though nothing had been decided. Link to details via the Wall Street Journal.
 

— House Republicans will release a debt-limit bill if President Joe Biden doesn’t negotiate, Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) told reporters yesterday. “The conference is very close, and if the president doesn’t act, we will,” McCarthy said, adding that Republicans will introduce a debt-limit bill if necessary. McCarthy has published bullet points of GOP priorities that could be included in the deal, including discretionary spending caps, rescissions of unspent Covid funds, stricter welfare work requirements, an energy-permitting bill, and border security measures.

     The White House seeks to exploit divisions in the GOP caucus and a House speaker they believe lacks the votes to pass a budget proposal.

— USDA expands Margin Protection crop insurance coverage for 2024 for corn, soybeans, other crops. USDA’s Risk Management Agency (RMA) has announced the expansion of Margin Protection (MP) under the crop insurance program to make the coverage available in more counties in the U.S. starting with 2024 crops.

     The expansion would add 1,255 counties for soybeans and 1,729 counties for corn, making the coverage available in 22 states for soybeans with 34 states being covered in total and it would make it available for select counties for rice (Arkansas, California, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Texas), and wheat (Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota).

     Background. MP is an area-based (average for a county) insurance plan providing coverage against an unexpected decrease in operating margin (revenue less input costs), caused by reduced county yields, reduced commodity prices, increased prices of certain inputs (diesel, interest, and fertilizers like diammonium phosphate, urea, potash, or monoammonium phosphate in the case of wheat) or any combination of these perils. However, since MP is area-based coverage, an individual farm may have a decrease in its margin but not receive an indemnity or vice-versa. Sales closing dates for corn, soybeans and spring wheat is Sept. 30 of the calendar prior to the insured crop year with the dates for rice the same as with other rice policies. There would also be a separate administrative fee for MP. There were 1.7 million acres of corn and 1 million acres of soybeans with MP coverage in the 2022 crop year.

— Contentious exchanges, issues at latest hearing with Vilsack. The odds are rising there will be no new farm bill this year unless some of the volatile remarks and issues that surfaced at a Thursday hearing can be resolved. House Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman Andy Harris (R-Md.,) roundly criticized USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack during a hearing on President Biden’s fiscal year (FY) 2024 budget request. Link to watch the House hearing or to read Vilsack’s written testimony

     Some topics from the hearing:

• Vilsack’s mantra. Vilsack again noted that despite record farm income, 50% of farmers in the country are not making money, 40% are making most of their profit from off-farm jobs, and only the 10% of farmers who are selling more than $1 million in products each year are making substantial incomes. Vilsack said those statistics mean it is important to find ways for farmers to receive additional streams of income. Vilsack said one way to help them is by “creating more value-added propositions, creating a different market, a new commodity, and that's essentially what USDA did. And it's essentially what the charter of the Commodity Credit Corporation provides for.”
• Tapping the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) Charter Act. Vilsack was pressed on the department’s use of CCC funds to back its $3.5 billion Partnerships for Climate Smart Commodities (PCSC) pilot program. Vilsack said that more than 80 farm groups encouraged him to set up the program using the CCC and that USDA had received 1,000 applications and funded 41 projects. Harris told Vilsack that it “was great” that 80 groups got together and talked you into this,” but those ”special interest groups” don't have authority to run “the policy of the country.” Vilsack said he did not consider the farm groups that asked for the creation of the Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities to be “special interests.” (Link to CCC fact sheet.)
  
  Harris acknowledged that under current law Vilsack had the authority to use the CCC to start the climate-smart initiative. “We put in a loophole that you used,” Harris said, signaling that he thinks Congress should restrict the use of CCC in the appropriations process, an unlikely development with a Democratic-controlled chamber.
• Vilsack comments on GOP proposals to cut federal spending. A letter from Vilsack analyzing Republicans’ proposed cuts to USDA spending was released (link). Vilsack said cuts of that magnitude would see 84,000 ag producers lose access to conservation technical assistance and would result in the loss of thousands of food safety inspectors.
  
  Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) accused Vilsack and Democrats of misrepresenting what Republicans might propose in terms of budget cuts. “I want to compliment my Democratic friends; they have very well-prepared talking points on this kind of an artificial proposal on cuts. And I see that, you know, there's kind of a collaboration with the administration on this as well,” he said.
• Huge amount of unspent funds. Rep. Moolenaar said he believes the amount of unspent, unobligated pandemic-related funds in government agencies amounts to $70 to $90 billion, and that the money could be used for debt reduction. Vilsack could not say how much USDA has in unobligated, unspent funds but “we didn't get a tremendous amount.” While the Covid-19 pandemic is over, Vilsack said, the food system still needs more help to become resilient.
• Ag research: Ranking Member Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) asked how potential budget cuts could affect USDA’s support of public ag research, noting the U.S. is being outpaced by global competitors like China and the European Union. Vilsack said when public ag research lags, it results in farmers having to bear the costs as private companies pick up the slack — but make a profit off their discoveries. “That is what's caused, in part, increased costs of seed, for example,” Vilsack said, recalling USDA’s recent report on the seed industry. “So as we transition and ask the private sector to do more, we have to understand there's a cost associated with that and farmers end up bearing that cost,” Vilsack concluded.
• SNAP/food stamps. Harris asked if there are efforts to restrict what SNAP beneficiaries can buy as there are in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC). Vilsack said that while SNAP has educational programs for beneficiaries, USDA does not want “to stigmatize” consumers. Harris said that restricting SNAP purchases of sugary drinks would be “a huge area of opportunity” to improve the nation’s nutrition.
• Children working in food processing plants. Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Ohio) asked Vilsack what USDA is doing to address the issue of children working in food production plants. Underwood said USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service has inspectors in every meat and poultry plant in the country, and said inspectors should feel “empowered” to report any sightings of “vulnerable children” working in those plants. Vilsack said USDA and the Labor Department are sending a letter to meat companies urging them to be aware of the contractors that they employ and their labor practices regarding children.
• PFAS funding. Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-Maine) asked Vilsack about funding to help farmers deal with per- and polyfluoroalkyl substance (PFAS) contamination — dubbed “forever chemicals” for their persistence in the environment, and which are linked to negative health and environmental effects. “We have been working on legislation around this, we put $5 million in the [omnibus spending] bill last year for the USDA to address PFAS contamination,” said Pingree, noting USDA is seeking a further $20 million asking Vilsack to discuss how the first $5 million was being spent to address the issue. “I think the first thing is to understand the extent of the challenge we face, so that's going to require an assessment. NRCS needs to be able to provide that assessment,” said Vilsack. “We need research in terms of determining what levels are acceptable in terms of animals, in terms of crops, in terms of people.” That information, he said, would help the department determine how to indemnify or protect those affected by the contamination.

— FAA acting head emerges as strong candidate. The Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) acting head Billy Nolen has emerged as a potential permanent nominee to helm the agency who could more quickly move through the Senate, as lawmakers press the president to quickly name a new pick. The FAA, without a Senate-confirmed leader for about a year, has been under increased scrutiny after a series of near-miss incidents and a system outage in January that temporarily grounded all flight departures. President Joe Biden’s prior nominee, Phil Washington, languished without Senate confirmation for about nine months, dogged by concerns about his lack of aviation experience and other GOP criticism.
 

— Chinese factory growth slows in March. China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) declined to 51.9 in March from the 11-month high of 52.6 in February, but that still represented expansion in the factory sector for a third straight month. Output (54.6 vs. 56.7 in February), new orders (53.6 vs. 54.1), and export sales (50.4 vs. 52.4) all rose at slower paces in March. In contrast the non-manufacturing PMI jumped to 58.2 versus 56.3 in February, reaching the highest level since May 2011 as the services sector recovered.

— China must strengthen fiscal policy. China needs to step up fiscal policy assistance for its economy, Vice Finance Minister Zhu Zhongming said, adding the country will move steadily on implementing preferential tax and fee policies. China will effectively ease tax burdens of small firms and household businesses as they still face many difficulties and need more support, Zhu said. On Monday, the finance ministry issued a preferential tax policy for some small firms and household businesses, including levying a 20% income tax for small firms with annual sales not exceeding 1 million yuan ($145,808.73). That tax policy will lower companies' burdens by more than 480 billion yuan per year, Zhu said.

— Nearly 200 Dems join Republicans in blocking China from buying rural land. “China must be banned from buying American farmland,” GOP Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) told Fox News Digital. The measure was approved in a 407-26 vote with 223 Republicans and 184 Democrats voting in favor. Just 26 Democrats voted against the bill while eight lawmakers didn't vote. The bill is an amendment to the Lower Energy Costs Act which the House passed later Thursday, but the Senate is unlikely to consider.

— USTR Tai: China ‘weaponizes’ trade against partners. U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Katherine Tai slammed China for weaponizing trade against partner countries. Beijing “turns the spigot on when things are good, turns the spigot off when things are bad,” Tai told reporters Thursday in Seoul. The world’s second-largest economy “takes that reliance on trade with China and, frankly, weaponizes it.” Tai’s comments come on the back of official meetings in South Korea with President Yoon Suk Yeol and trade officials. President Joe Biden’s administration is ramping up a “friend-shoring” pitch to countries including South Korea to deepen trade ties and curb China’s clout.

     South Korea is the sixth-largest U.S. trading partner and a key ally as the Asian country produces a variety of high-tech products including chips and batteries rivaling those made in China.

— Biden administration finally releases guidance on EV subsidies. The Treasury Department released its long-awaited interpretation of those mandates in last year's big climate law. The guidance (link) "provides increased clarity and certainty to manufacturers," a senior Treasury Department official told reporters. The rules will determine how many models meet complex eligibility requirements for consumer subsidies of up to $7,500 per vehicle.

     Initial conclusions, according to Axios:

• “Treasury is prioritizing EV deployment over industrial policy. The document provides leeway in several areas, including a definition of "free-trade deal" that will open doors to more global cooperation (i.e. imports).”
• “They're still not done defining how battery parts and minerals linked to Chinese firms and individuals will be barred from qualifying vehicles for future years, despite a recent action on microchips indicating that might eventually happen.”
• “Details on freezing out materials from a ‘foreign entity of concern’ in eligible vehicles are TBD in a future regulatory process.
• “Confusion remains certain. More info is always better. But combining the free-trade deal definition with question marks on China could create marketplace chaos where cars qualify, only to be disqualified later.”
  
  Upshot: “We believe these requirements will significantly increase the number of vehicles made and sold in the U.S. over the next decade," a Treasury official said.

— House-passed energy measured labeled DOA in Senate. The House Thursday cleared an energy and permitting bill on a vote of 225-204 with one Republican voting against the plan and four Democrats voting in favor. However, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said the plan is basically dead on arrival in his chamber. The White House previously warned that President Joe Biden would veto the measure if it reached his desk in the current form. But even getting agreement on the permitting portion of the bill does not guarantee that lawmakers would be able to massage other portions of the bill enough for it to gain Senate passage.

— The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market released guidelines for carbon offset markets, although some experts said the guidelines lack important safeguards that would help guarantee that the funding is going to environmental projects and the people doing the work. Link for details.

— Which countries added the most new wind power in 2022?

— Ford F-150 Lightning EV truck price raised again. Ford has increased the price on its electric vehicle (EV) F-150 Lightning pickup after resuming production of the vehicle following addressing a battery issue. The price for the base F-150 Lightning will be $59,974, up substantially from one year ago when the truck began rolling off the assembly line with a price tag of around $40,000. Ford raised the price to $46.974 in August, in October it rose to $51.974, with another increase in December to $56,000. The lower-cost Lightning Pro, intended for fleets, will now start at under $60,000, while the mid-level truck’s starting price jumps to just under $76,000. The starting price for the Lightning’s top-line trim increases slightly to just over $98,000. A Ford spokesman said the price increase was “in response to current material costs, market factors, and supply chain constraints.” 

— Why food prices rose. Retail food prices climbed 11% from 2021 to 2022, causing Republicans to criticize federal agencies’ fiscal policies. “It is difficult to determine the individual effect of any one factor on retail food prices,” but influencing factors include global conflict and climate change, the Government Accountability Office reported this week (link).

    

— New Mexico joins some other states re: free school meals. New Mexico joined California, Colorado, Maine, and Minnesota by passing a law making school meals free for all students. Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham noted that New Mexico’s law is the first to include provisions on nutrition and food waste. Link for details.

— Charlie Cook: Trump's path to the GOP nomination could depend on how his MAGA base reacts to an indictment. Writes Charlie Cook: “There is a great deal of concern over how Donald Trump’s staunchest backers might react to the news. And that reaction could very well determine whether the former president gets to keep cruising toward the 2024 GOP nomination. It raises the question: Would a widespread and violent reaction by Trump-backers cause still-malleable Republicans to have some doubts about whether he’d be the best horse to bet on in next year’s race?”

— Sen. Thune, others introduce bill to repeal estate tax. Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) led 41 Republicans in introducing legislation to end the estate tax. The estate tax currently applies to estates valued at less than $12.9 million, but Thune and others say the tax is still a burden for family farms and some businesses. The bill has the backing of the American Farm Bureau Federation, the National Cattlemen's Beef Association, National Association of Manufacturers, National Federation of Independent Businesses and other business groups, Thune’s office said. The proposed measure is not expected to get through the chamber.  
 

— Trump indicted In Manhattan. Former President Donald Trump was indicted Thursday on charges stemming from his alleged “hush money” payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels, an unprecedented event for a former president that will lead to him being arraigned in court next week — but not held in custody or being forced to end to his presidential campaign. Trump is expected to turn himself in to authorities in Manhattan on Tuesday, his attorney Susan R. Necheles told the New York Times. The indictment is now filed under seal, and it won’t be made public until Trump’s arraignment in court unless the Manhattan district attorney makes it available earlier. Trump will likely be booked at the Manhattan DA’s office, where he’ll have his fingerprints and mugshot taken and have his DNA and other information taken before he’s formally arraigned and appears in court to plead guilty or not guilty. He will likely be immediately released once he’s arraigned. New bail rules in New York =allow people who are indicted on misdemeanor charges or non-violent felonies to be released on their own recognizance without bail unless they’re deemed to be a flight risk. Manhattan criminal cases typically take more than a year to go to trial, experts cited by Reuters note. As for whether he will be convicted, legal experts have cast some doubt on the legal theory that prosecutors are expected to use and other aspects of the case. Being indicted or even convicted wouldn’t stop Trump from becoming president on its own, as legal experts have noted there are no restrictions in the Constitution that bar people from becoming president if they’ve been indicted.

     Trump could face charges from three other criminal probes: A state election interference investigation in Georgia, and special counsel Jack Smith’s federal investigations of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot and Trump’s removal of classified documents from the White House.

— The New York Times' Peter Baker writes (link) that several other former world leaders have gone to jail or faced charges:

• “In Israel, former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert spent more than a year in prison for bribery, fraud and other charges while the incumbent prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is currently on trial on similar charges.”
• “In Italy, former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who just regained some power as part of a governing coalition, has faced 35 criminal court cases during his long career, although he was definitively convicted just once for tax fraud and sentenced to a year of community service. Just last month, he was acquitted on charges of bribing witnesses at a previous underage prostitution trial.”
• “Other leaders of democratic nations convicted in recent years include former Presidents Jacques Chirac (embezzlement) and Nicolas Sarkozy (influence peddling) in France, former President Park Geun-hye (corruption) in South Korea and former President Chen Shui-bian (bribery) in Taiwan.”

— Turkey OKs Finland's NATO membership. Finland, which borders Russia, is joining NATO. Turkey’s parliament gave the final approval Thursday, setting the scene for even more tensions with Russia. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, has often referred to NATO, led by the United States, as a major threat to its security. Western nations pushed for NATO’s expansion after Russia invaded Ukraine over a year ago. An attack on one country in the alliance is considered an attack on all of them. Sweden’s bid for NATO membership, however, remains in limbo. Hungary and Turkey are the holdouts.

— WSJ: The U.S. government is considering asking Black Americans on federal forms whether their ancestors were enslaved. The Biden administration is asking the public for input on how it might go about differentiating Black people who are descendants of slaves in America from those whose families arrived more recently as immigrants, the Wall Street Journal reports (link). Supporters of the change say one reason they are pushing it is to quantify who would be eligible to receive reparations for slavery should the government ever agree to pay them.

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