First Thing Today Audio | June 29, 2021
Corn futures strengthened to kick off the overnight session, but most contracts are currently down 1 to 3 cents. Soybeans have fallen 2 to 6 cents, with new-crop leading losses. SRW wheat futures are 1 to 3 cents lower, while HRW wheat is up 1 to 2 cents. Spring wheat hit new contract highs overnight and the market is currently posting gains of 11 to 12 cents. Spring wheat ratings dove overnight, and the Pacific Northwest is in the grips of a heatwave. Crude oil is down slightly, and the greenback is posting modest gains.
Following are highlights from USDA’s crop progress and condition update for the week ended June 27.
- Corn: 4% silking, 64% “good” to “excellent” (G/E)
- Soybeans: 96% emerged, 14% blooming, 60% G/E
- Spring wheat: 88% headed, 20% G/E
- Winter wheat: 33% harvested, 48% rated G/E
- Cotton: 32% squaring, 7% setting bolls, 52% G/E
“Frost and light freezes were reported this morning in interior southern Brazil. The region produces wheat and safrinha corn,” reports World Weather Inc.
During the first half of July, there is the potential for a small insurgence of heat to briefly move through the Midwest as a high-pressure ridge retreats from the Prairies, according to World Weather Inc., but it says the heat should only last a day or two.
Pro Farmer Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained his 177.5 bu. per acre U.S. corn yield estimate this week, and his bias is neutral to lower going forward. Cordonnier also left his U.S. soybean yield projection at 50.8 bu. per acre, but again, his bias is neutral to lower going forward.
In February, China proposed changes to its national soybean standard to the World Trade Organization, with discussions underway about replacing the current standard that was set in 2009. Brazil is asking China to clarify certain aspects of the new standard that changes quality requirements for the grain.
China rejected an initial request by Canada for a dispute settlement panel to be established over China’s restrictions on imports of Canadian canola, which Canada maintained at a WTO meeting Monday were not based on science and were unfairly deployed by China.
Direct payments for dairy producers may NOT be unveiled today in Wisconsin. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack will visit the state with President Joe Biden. While a payment is coming, some sources signal a changed focus for the trip to help sell the recently announced bipartisan infrastructure package.
There was Pressure on live cattle futures to start the week, despite futures’ discount to the cash market and lower than expected cattle placements during May. Cash cattle traded at an average price of $125.47 last week, up $2.63 from the week prior.
Trading limits for lean hog futures expand to $4.50 today after the front three contracts settled their $3 limit higher to start the week. Followthrough buying today would signal the market has put in a low.