First Thing Today
This morning report highlights the overnight trading session and key domestic and global developments impacting markets.
Corrective buying after yesterday’s dive. Fed to release FOMC minutes today. Chinese corn production likely to climb at least 6% in 2021-22. Vilsack heading to Nebraska for a ‘major announcement’ on Friday.
Rain ahead for U.S. Northern Plains and Midwest as well as the Canadian Prairies. Cordonnier lowered his U.S. corn and soybean yield estimates, as well as his corn crop projections for Brazil and Paraguay.
Grain and soy futures are rising ahead of long holiday weekend. The focal point today is the June jobs report. Meanwhile, a USDA attaché expects Chinese imports of corn to slow notably in 2021-22.
Corn and beans rallying on bullish acreage data. Monthly soy and corn processing reports out today. TPA expires with little fanfare and the U.S. and Taiwan restarted trade talks.
June Acreage Report, Quarterly Grain Stocks out today. Rains limit frost damage in Brazil’s northern Parana, with another frost/freeze expected tonight. A bipartisan low-carbon biofuels bill will be unveiled today.
Frost/freeze the latest ding for Brazil’s battered safrinha corn crop. Solid heat wave for the western Corn Belt likely the latter half of July.
It was a wet weekend for the Midwest, but a dry, warm forecast for the Upper Midwest with heat moving into the Northern Plains keep weather concerns close at hand.
Heavy rain and storms are on tap for southern and eastern areas of the Midwest. The infrastructure agreement faces some high hurdles reaching the finish line. USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed Report is out this afternoon.
Corn is hitting new lows for the month, with soybeans also under pressure. Sellers continue to dominate lean hog market and limits expand ahead of USDA’s weekly export sales update and its Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report.
Welcome rains fell in Iowa, but western areas of the state again missed out. Levels of South America’s Parana River remain problematic. Fed Chair Powell said high prices should wane. Higher cash cattle trade picks up.
Spring wheat soars amid a dive in condition ratings. Cordonnier sticks with his U.S. crop estimates, but he cut Brazil’s corn crop. Farm-state lawmakers want biofuel provisions to be wrapped into infrastructure package.
Midwest rains are weighing on grain and soy futures. Chinese imports of Brazilian beans picked up in May. And Biden’s opposition to a gas tax proposal and Democratic infighting could derail latest infrastructure effort.
Volatility is here. Money flow will be key to market action moving forward. China remained an aggressive importers of grains and pork during May, despite high prices. Refiners appear to be betting on a blending reprieve.
Hot, stormy weather is expected for the Midwest, pressuring grain and soy futures. A bipartisan infrastructure plan gains support. And Biden and Putin agree to disagree at their summit yesterday.
Some buying returned to grain futures overnight. Markets will zero in on the Fed today and whether it bumps up its timeline for higher interest rates. Meanwhile, China is reporting its sow herd is near pre-ASF levels.
The cooler forecast is pressuring grain and soy futures, despite some lower than expected crop condition ratings. NOPA will update the May crush today. And a truce has been reached on the U.S./EU aircraft dispute.
Rains for the dry Northern Plains and western Corn Belt are expected to be erratic the next two weeks, with warm temperatures likely to persist. Nevertheless, grain and soy futures are under heavy pressure.
Delaware lawmakers are pressing EPA to ease refiners’ blending obligations. A bipartisan group of Senators delivered a new infrastructure proposal. And NCBA wants USDA to scrap “Product of the USA labels.”
More rain is coming for the Northern Plains. Weather will share the spotlight with USDA’s June S&D and Crop Production Reports. JBS announces it did pay $11 million in ransom.
Rains for the Northern Plains weigh on HRS wheat. Biden ended infrastructure talks with Capito, but is starting talks with others. Meanwhile, Vilsack says no decision has been made on swine line speeds.