Good morning!
Grain futures prices firmer overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was up 1 3/4 cents and hit a four-week high. January soybeans were 5 1/2 cents higher. December HRW and SRW wheat futures markets were up 1 1/4 to 2 1/2 cents. The grain market bulls are showing some signs of life late this week. The technical price charts are looking friendlier for corn and soybeans, which are likely to invite more chart-based speculators to play the long sides. Winter wheat market bulls still have some heavy lifting in front of them, to pull prices out of their downtrends. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly up. Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher and trading around $61.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 3.99 percent.
Frosty morning in the Midwest… The National Weather Service today said frost advisories and freeze warnings overnight/early this morning are in effect from western Kansas eastward to Ohio. Meantime, a low-pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Showers across the Great Lakes will still be common today but the showers are expected to be less numerous than yesterday.A couple of thunderstorms cannot be ruled out either. Meanwhile, chillier and drier weather along with gusty winds will expand from the Midwest and Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic as a high-pressure ridge builds in from the Northern Plains. By tonight into Friday morning the southern High Plains will see showers and thunderstorms developing over the south-central Plains ahead of a warm front. The rain will then expand across the region with an increasing threat of heavy rainfall Friday morning.
Trump Administration announces actions to strengthen U.S. beef industry… USDA issued a press release Wednesday afternoon, announcing “a suite of actions to strengthen the American beef industry, reinforcing and prioritizing the American rancher’s critical role in the national security of the United States. Since 2017, the United States has lost over 17% of family farms, more than 100,000 operations over the last decade. The national herd is at a 75-year low while consumer demand for beef has grown 9% over the past decade. Because increasing the size of the domestic herd takes time, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is investing now to make these markets less volatile for ranchers over the long term and more affordable for consumers…. Today, USDA will immediately expedite deregulatory reforms, boost processing capacity, including getting more locally raised beef into schools, and working across the government to fix longstanding common-sense barriers for ranchers like outdated grazing restrictions,” said the USDA press release. Click here for details of the plan.
Report: Trump administration looking to increase Argentine beef imports 4X… The White House is looking to buy four times its typical quota of Argentine beef in an effort to lower U.S. consumer beef prices — a move that risks alienating longtime farm-state allies of President Trump, according to people familiar with the talks and reported by Politico. Trump administration officials have told congressional Republicans and agriculture industry representatives that they’re eyeing a purchase of 80,000 metric tons of Argentine beef, though that number is not final and talks are ongoing, according to the four people and one senior administration official, who were all granted anonymity to discuss the matter, said Politico. The U.S.’ current beef import quota on Argentina is 20,000 metric tons. Republican senators like Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) and Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) launched a flurry of calls on Tuesday to USDA Secretary Rollins, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Trump himself, expressing their deep concerns with bringing in more Argentine beef. “Some of them pushed for a full reversal of Trump’s suggestion, and others left with the impression they would have time to brainstorm alternative ways to lower U.S. beef prices for consumers before the president made a new deal that could hurt American producers. ‘Bottom line: if the goal is addressing beef prices at the grocery store, this isn’t the way,’ Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) said in a statement earlier this week,” reported Politico.
NCBA pushes back… The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association issued a press release Wednesday that did not reference President Trump’s social media post (see cattle item below). However, NCBA CEO Colin Woodall said, “The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and its members cannot stand behind the President while he undercuts the future of family farmers and ranchers by importing Argentinian beef in an attempt to influence prices. It is imperative that President Trump and Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins let the cattle markets work.”
China says meeting with U.S. trade officials set for Friday… China said Vice Premier He Lifeng plans to meet with U.S. officials in Kuala Lumpur from Oct. 24 to 27 for the next round of trade talks, said a Bloomberg report. The meeting will take place to “discuss important issues” in the bilateral trade ties, according to the Commerce Ministry. A trade truce that’s set to run out on Nov. 10 is at stake unless extended, amid recent escalatory measures imposed by the U.S. and China against one another. President Trump on Wednesday said he was confident of striking a trade deal with his Chinese counterpart when they meet in South Korea next week, including an agreement on agricultural purchases. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he would speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Russian oil, resuming soybean purchases and rare earths exports. “We’ll make a deal on, I think, everything,” Trump said.
FSA funds disbursal to begin today… USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins announced Wednesday that despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, aid to farmers will be distributed via the FSA beginning today. In a post on X, Rollins said, “This Thursday, USDA will resume Farm Service Agency core operations, including critical services for farm loan processing, ARC/PLC payments, and other programs — over $3Billion in assistance farmers have counted on in their business planning decisions.”
Crude oil prices spike after U.S. sanctions Russia’s biggest oil producers… The move by the Trump administration threatens supplies and could potentially spark a reshuffling of global trade flows. December Nymex crude oil prices early today were up $3.25 a barrel at $61.75. Brent crude oil jumped to trade above $65 a barrel, and its 7% rebound over the past two days is now the steepest in more than two years. “The blacklisting of Russian oil giants Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC comes against a backdrop of growing concerns with excess supplies as the OPEC-plus alliance, which Russia co-leads with Saudi Arabia, ramps up output. Senior refinery executives in India, a key buyer of Russian oil, said the restrictions would make it impossible for those flows to continue,” according to a report from Bloomberg. “It is a big deal,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. “It may force a shift in the recent supply glut narrative, forcing traders to adjust their positions back to neutral or even bullish,” he said and as reported by Bloomberg.
Malaysian palm oil futures down for fourth session in a row… Malaysian palm oil futures were below MYR 4,450 per MT Thursday, extending losses for the fourth straight session amid a stronger ringgit and weaker vegetable oil prices on the Dalian exchange. Sentiment was further weighed down by concerns over uncertain demand and unpredictable weather, which could affect production in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, speculation grew that Indonesia, the world’s largest producer, may postpone its planned B50 biodiesel mandate from 2026 to 2027 due to funding constraints. Losses were partly cushioned by a rally in crude oil prices due to supply concerns. Globally, market sentiment received support after President Trump said he expects to reach several agreements with China’s Xi Jinping during their meeting in South Korea next week, raising hopes of easing trade tensions between the two nations.
Cattle futures markets tumble on Trump social media posts… December live cattle on Wednesday fell $5.60 to $239.825. January feeder cattle fell the daily trading limit of $9.25 to $361.025. Both markets hit two-week lows. Live cattle and feeder cattle futures’ daily trading limits will be expanded today. The cattle futures markets were already under selling pressure near midday Wednesday and that selling accelerated in late trading after President Trump made a social media post: “The Cattle Ranchers, who I love, don’t understand that the only reason they are doing so well, for the first time in decades, is because I put Tariffs on cattle coming into the United States, including a 50% Tariff on Brazil. If it weren’t for me, they would be doing just as they’ve done for the past 20 years — Terrible! It would be nice if they would understand that, but they also have to get their prices down, because the consumer is a very big factor in my thinking, also!” Trump shortly thereafter posted: “In addition to everything else, Tariffs on other Countries SAVED our Cattle Ranchers!” Profit-taking pressure and some risk aversion that re-entered the marketplace following reports the Trump administration is considering more trade levies on China also worked to press the cattle futures markets lower early on Wednesday. USDA at midday Wednesday reported very light cash cattle trade at $238.00 so far this week. USDA reported last week’s average cash cattle trade at $239.82.
More technical selling in lean hog futures… December lean hogs Wednesday fell 87 1/2 cents to $82.40. The lean hog futures market saw technical selling pressure after prices hit a two-month low Tuesday. Falling cash hog market prices are also prompting selling in futures. December futures’ discount to the cash market did somewhat limit losses in futures. Sharply lower to limit-down cattle futures markets prices today also weighed on hogs. The latest CME lean hog index is down another 60 cents at $94.98. Today’s projected cash hog index is down another 80 cents at $94.18. Wednesday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote was $89.49.