Good morning and have a happy Thanksgiving from Pro Farmer!
Grain futures narrowly mixed overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, March corn was up 1/4 cent. January soybeans were 1/2 cent higher. March HRW and SRW wheat futures markets were up 1/2 to down 1/2 cent. Look for a quieter trading day in the grain futures markets, as many traders will hit the exit doors early to get a jump on the Thanksgiving Day holiday Thursday. Grain futures will trade normal hours today but will close early on Friday. The key outside markets early this morning see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $58.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.006 percent.
Snow, wind, arctic air in the upper Midwest, northern Plains… The National Weather Service today said the first significant snowfall of the season across the northern tier states has culminated with blizzard conditions as cold air rushes in behind a deep storm. This storm is forecast to continue its eastward track across the Great Lakes, while expanding in size for the remainder of today into tonight.The snow belt along the south shore of Lake Superior, including the Arrowhead, can expect to receive well over a foot of snow, along with blizzard conditions today. For the remainder of the Great Lakes, rain will gradually change over to all snow by Thanksgiving morning along with windy conditions. More lake-effect snow bands can be expected to impact the snow belt downwind from the Great Lakes on the back side of the departing but expanding storm into Friday, especially the lower Great Lakes. Meantime, much of the eastern U.S. will see another day of milder-than-normal temperatures together with scattered showers and a better chance for thunderstorms in the Southeast. Thursday, polar air will plunge southward and settle across the entire central and eastern U.S. with temperatures falling to the freezing mark as far south as the Florida Panhandle by Friday morning. In contrast, the western U.S. will remain milder than normal through the Thanksgiving holiday. The Pacific Northwest will receive periods of mountain snow and low-elevation rain through the next couple of days. There is an increasing chance of snow across Montana Friday morning, with what appears to be an upslope snow event setting up across the region under arctic high pressure intrusion from the north and low pressure system developing over the central High Plains.
Trump to Xi: Speed up U.S. ag product purchases… President Trump said on Tuesday he urged Chinese President Xi Jinping to increase the speed and size of agricultural purchases and said Beijing had “more or less agreed” to do so, said a Bloomberg report. “I think he’s going to very much surprise you on the upside,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Tuesday. “I think he’s going to — I asked him, ‘I’d like you to buy a little faster, I’d like you to buy a little more.’ And he’s more or less agreed to do that.” Trump and Xi held an hour-long phone call on Monday to discuss trade and ongoing tensions between China and Japan over Taiwan. “The two nations aim to agree on terms for general licenses that China pledged to offer for U.S.-bound exports of rare earths and critical minerals by month’s end. Trump is also hoping to speed Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans after an effective boycott for most of the year in response to his expanded tariffs,” Bloomberg said.
Another big U.S. economic data dump today… Another heavy slate of U.S. economic data is due out today, including the weekly jobless claims report, durable goods orders, the second estimate of third-quarter GDP, the advance economic indicators report, the Chicago ISM business survey, personal income and outlays (including the key inflation gauges), new residential sales, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.
U.S. delegation headed to Moscow next week in pursuit of peace… U.S. presidential envoy Steve Witkoff will lead a delegation for talks in Russia next week, a Kremlin official said and as reported by Bloomberg, as President Trump pushes for a deal to end Russia’s war with Ukraine. “As for Witkoff, I can say there is a preliminary agreement that he will visit Moscow next week,” Yuri Ushakov, an aide to Putin, said in a video clip of an interview posted on Telegram Wednesday. “He and some other representatives of the administration involved in Ukrainian affairs.” “If Witkoff arrives, he’ll likely be received by the Russian president,” Ushakov later said, according to the state-run Tass news agency. Trump earlier said that he had dispatched Witkoff to Moscow for a probable meeting with Putin next week, and that the envoy might be joined by Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, Bloomberg reported. U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll — who has been meeting with the Russians in Abu Dhabi — was directed to talk with the Ukrainians, he said. Trump also told reporters he had no deadline for an agreement but said on social media he wouldn’t meet with the leaders of the two countries until a deal was at least in its final stages.
Odds once again high for Fed rate cut in two weeks… Traders and investors are once again betting that the Federal Reserve will cut U.S. interest rates again when policymakers meet next month (Dec. 9-10), with markets pricing signaling roughly 80% certainty of a quarter-point rate hike. “The shift in rate sentiment started after last week’s delayed September jobs data and was reinforced by comments from New York Fed President John Williams and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his allies are ‘on board with a cut,’ despite pushback from other officials who are more concerned about inflation, and recent soft economic data is expected to convince the rest of the committee,” reported Bloomberg.
Hassett said to be leading candidate for Federal Reserve Chair… White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is seen as the frontrunner to be the next Federal Reserve chair, according to people familiar with the matter and as reported by Bloomberg. “Hassett is seen as someone who would bring President Donald Trump’s approach to interest-rate cutting to the Fed, which Trump has long wanted to control. Trump is known to make surprise personnel and policy decisions, and a nomination is not final until it’s made public, according to people familiar with the matter,” said the Bloomberg report.
Lean hog futures traders monitoring African Swine Fever breakout in South Korea… South Korea was on heightened alert Tuesday after authorities reported an outbreak of African Swine Fever at a pig farm in the country’s top pig-breeding region, Reuters reported. Authorities raised the national alert level to “serious” after 1,423 pigs were culled due to the outbreak at a farm in Danjin, South Chungcheong province, the report said. Authorities were on the lookout for further infections at around 140 related farms, according to South Korea’s agriculture ministry. The ministry also issued a 48-hour “standstill” order for all livestock facilities in the country in a bid to curb the risk of further spread. The report said the incident marked the sixth isolated outbreak of ASF in South Korea in 2025, but the first in the province – an area that hadn’t seen a previous outbreak. South Korea was the fourth-largest importer of U.S. pork by value in 2024, according to Pork Checkoff.
USDA’s top economist resigns, heading to University of Missouri… The U.S. Agriculture Department’s top economist is departing from the agency to lead the University of Missouri’s food and agricultural policy institute. Seth Meyer has been the USDA’s chief economist since 2021, heading an office whose responsibilities include the markets-moving monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports. Meyer will be leading the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute starting Jan. 1, succeeding Pat Westhoff, who is retiring in March, the University of Missouri said in a Tuesday release. The move comes as U.S. government agencies including the USDA have been hit by voluntary resignations, and the farm agency plans to relocate much of its remaining employees to offices outside of Washington. Meyer said via phone that the recent turmoil at the agency did not factor into his decision to leave, according to Bloomberg. He said the new role allows him to return to his family in Missouri, after years of “bouncing between” the USDA and FAPRI. Meyer was FAPRI’s assistant director before joining the USDA, and prior to that was the head of the agency’s board that publishes the WASDE report.
Malaysian palm oil futures rise… Malaysian palm oil futures advanced over 1% to around MYR 4,040 per MT on Wednesday, snapping a four-session decline as bargain hunting emerged after prices hit a near five-month low. A rise in rival oils on the Chicago exchange and a mild recovery in crude oil prices also supported sentiment. Traders noted that top buyer India may increase its palm oil purchases by roughly 20% in the next marketing year due to more competitive pricing, providing additional support. Still, gains were limited by a stronger ringgit and weak export expectations, with cargo surveyor data indicating Malaysian shipments likely fell 16.4%–18.8% in the first 25 days of November from a month earlier. Meanwhile, October industry data showed output rising 11% to its highest since August 2015, while stocks climbed to a 6-1/2-year high. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board also set a lower crude palm oil reference price for December to maintain export competitiveness amid softer demand.
Cattle futures markets bulls still working to stabilize prices… February live cattle on Tuesday fell 20 cents to $207.325 and hit a six-month low. January feeder cattle gained $2.10 to $307.075 and hit a nearly five-month low early on. The live cattle futures market Tuesday saw a pause and feeder cattle futures saw a corrective bounce after both closed locked limit down Monday. Buying interest was limited by reports of cash cattle trading early this week at sharply lower levels. USDA Tuesday reported light cash cattle trading has occurred this week, with steers averaging $208.00 and heifers $207.32. Cash cattle trading last week averaged $217.41, said USDA, which was $7.65 below the prior week’s average of $225.06.
Lean hog futures pause… February lean hogs on Tuesday fell 17 1/2 cents to $79.00. The market also paused in the existing price downtrend after posting short-covering gains Monday. Steadily declining cash hog prices will continue to limit the upside in futures, until the cash market stabilizes. The latest CME lean hog index is down another $1.20 at $83.61. Today’s projected cash index price is down another 80 cents at $82.81. Tuesday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote was $70.92. Weekly USDA export sales for the week of Oct. 9 showed U.S. pork sales of 31,000 MT. Net sales of 1,710 MT to China were reported, with exports to China of 2,609 MT.