Good morning!
Grain prices steady to slightly weaker overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was down 1 cent, November soybeans up 3/4 cent and hit a two-month high overnight, and December winter wheat futures were around 2 cents lower. The corn and soybean futures markets Thursday got a Pro Farmer Crop Tour boost, as scouts on the tour this week found some disease problems. Key for the corn and soybean bulls will be to show decent follow-through buying strength very soon, to better suggest seasonal market bottoms are in place. Winter wheat futures will likely be followers of daily price action in corn and beans. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly up. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $63.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.337 percent.
Pro Farmer Crop Tour: Iowa, Minnesota crop projections… Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts put the Iowa corn crop at a 198.43 bu.-per-acre yield average for 2025. That’s up 2.93% versus last year, and up 6.4% versus the three-year average. “This Iowa crop has a very, very strong ear count, great grain inches — just a very consistent equation putting that corn yield together,” said Emily Flory Carolan, Pro Farmer Crop Tour data consultant. Iowa soybeans are also looking to break yield records. The Crop Tour delivered a 1384.38 pod estimate average in a 3' x 3' area. That’s up 5.49% versus last year and up 12.94% versus the three-year average. Said Lane Akre, host of the eastern leg of the tour: “For the most part, the Iowa beans are pretty lush and the pod counts have been there, the soil moisture is up, so the potential is pretty high on beans... I think that’s been the real story the last couple of days — how many pods are out there.” However, foliar diseases are appearing in Iowa fields and have the potential to dent record yields between now and harvest, said Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk and lead scout on the western leg of the tour. Minnesota is the only state on this year’s tour where over 200-bu.-an-acre average corn yield was recorded. The Minnesota corn crop will reach a record 202.86 bu. average, Pro Farmer crop scouts found--if it can outpace southern rust and tar spot. “We saw disease in all of the fields we sampled today, though one of them really wasn’t too bad,” said Akre. “We saw a lot of early stages of tar spot, and we saw a lot of southern rust throughout.” Minnesota soybeans show yield promise, too, with final Crop Tour numbers pegged at 1247.86 pods in a 3' x 3' area. That’s up 20.38% versus last year, and up 19.9% versus the three-year average. The Crop Tour wound up with a meeting Thursday night in Rochester, Minn. Our final yields from this year’s Crop Tour will be released today at 1:30 p.m. CDT.
European Union importing more corn… Europe’s scorching temperatures are curbing corn crop production, putting the European Union on track for its highest imports in three years, according to a Bloomberg report. The heat has reduced corn production prospects for both quality and yields, with the share of French corn rated in good to excellent condition falling to 62% in the week to Aug. 18. Matt Darragh, a grains and oilseed analyst at Kpler, said corn from Brazil and the U.S. is “pricing very competitively on the global market, which is encouraging import demand” and likely to support EU corn imports, said the Bloomberg report.
Fed Chair Powell speaks today at Jackson Hole confab… The Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole central banker symposium is in progress and the highlight is a speech this morning by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. He is expected to update the Fed’s monetary policy framework. Powell could provide a new perspective on how much FOMC support there is to lower U.S. interest rates in September.Bond traders expect Powell to indicate Fed policymakers will start cutting interest rates next month. However, his speech may remind traders and investors that any rate cut in September depends on the next round of employment and inflation reports. Jason Pride, head of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said Powell will probably suggest that the U.S. economic data has weakened enough to support consideration of a rate cut, according to a Bloomberg report.
European Central Bank likely to hold rates steady… ECB officials are increasingly convinced they can keep Eurozone interest rates unchanged in September, according to people familiar with the matter who don’t see the trade deal between the EU and U.S. causing major economic concerns, according to Bloomberg. Since ECB rates were left at 2% last month, growth and inflation have developed largely in line with the ECB’s June outlook, said the people, who also said the ECB foresees price pressures dipping in 2026 before hitting the 2% goal again in 2027.
China’s Shanghai stock index hits 10-year high… China’s Shanghai composite index surged 1.45% to close at 3,826 on Friday, while the Shenzhen Component rallied 2.07% to 12,166, with the former scaling a new decade high as strong fund rotations and retail buying fueled the rally. Chinese equities have advanced sharply in recent weeks as investors shifted out of bonds into stocks, with margin financing climbing to levels last seen during the 2015 bull market. Sentiment has also been underpinned by easing US-China trade tensions and Beijing’s moves to curb excessive competition, even as domestic economic data remain weak and policy support relatively modest. For the week, the Shanghai composite index rose 3.49% and the Shenzhen component index gained 4.57%.
India exports to China rise 20% in April-July… India’s exports to China surged 20.0%, year-on-year, to $5.8 billion in the first four months of FY 2025-26 (April-July), rebounding sharply from a 4.5% decline during the same period in FY 2024-25. Shipments to China in the first four months of FY 2024-25 amounted to $4.8 billion. The increase was driven by higher sales of energy, electronics, and agricultural products, official data showed, as reported by the Hindustan Times. Shipments in FY 2025-26 showed a consistent upward trend, with April rising 12.9% year-on-year, May surging 24%, and June and July increasing by 17% and 27%, respectively—despite fluctuations reflecting global trade conditions and seasonal variations in demand. In FY 2024-25, Indian merchandise exports to China dropped by 14.5% to USD 14.25 billion, compared to USD 16.67 billion in FY 2023-24.
Malaysian palm oil futures prices rise… Malaysian palm oil futures hovered near MYR 4,500 per MT Friday, after three straight sessions of losses, supported by a weaker ringgit and gains in rival Dalian and Chicago edible oils. Sentiment was also lifted by strong export expectations, as cargo surveyors reported that Malaysian palm oil shipments during August 1–20 rose 13.6% to 17% from July. In top buyer India, purchases in July jumped 16% from June to 301,000 MT, the highest in nine months, even as Malaysia’s inventories climbed to a 19-month high of 2.11 million MT. Meanwhile, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects India’s demand to stay firm in September as importers stock up ahead of the Diwali festivals.
USDA monthly Cattle-on-Feed report out this afternoon… Cattle futures traders are looking ahead to this afternoon’s monthly USDA cattle-on-feed report. Some mild profit-taking pressure was seen in the cattle futures markets Thursday. USDA at midday Thursday reported active cash cattle trade. Steers fetched an average price of $244.87 and heifers $244.29. USDA Monday reported the average cash cattle trading price last week was $242.01, the same as the week prior. The latest CME feeder cattle index price is $342.17 as of Aug.15. Boxed beef prices have been strong this week, to add support to the buying in cattle futures markets.
Lean hog futures in pause mode this week… The lean hog futures market has paused this week, with buying interest limited by weakening cash hog market fundamentals, but selling interest limited by historically high cattle futures prices. The latest CME lean hog index is down another 49 cents to $108.57 (as of Aug. 19). Today’s projected cash index price is down another 25 cents at $108.32. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Thursday was $109.59.
Today’s reports—Friday
--2:00 pm Cattle on Feed
--2:00 pm CE: Cash Rents
--2:00 pm Chickens and Eggs
--2:00 pm Cold Storage
--2:00 pm Peanut Prices