Good morning!
Grain futures prices firmer overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, May corn was up 1 3/4 cents. May soybeans were 4 cents higher. May soybean meal was near steady and May bean oil was higher and hit another contract high. May SRW wheat was up 7 3/4 cents and May HRW wheat was 8 3/4 cents higher. The grain markets saw corrective rebounds overnight following the selling pressure seen on Wednesday. The corn, soybean and winter wheat market bulls are keeping alive price uptrends on their daily bar charts. On tap for the grains today is the weekly USDA export sales report. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer, with Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $76.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.12 percent.
Latest on the war in Iran…
--The war entered its sixth day with no sign of abating.
--Aerial strikes continue across region; Iran said attacks will intensify.
--Air travel remains mostly disrupted; Qatar will begin relief flights.
--Asia shares rebounded, Europe turns positive; Brent rises to $84.
--Iran says it offered a uranium deal to the U.S. before the attacks began.
--An oil tanker was attacked off the coast of Iraq, suggesting wider risks in Persian Gulf.
--Trump says U.S. is faring very well in the war.
Arab states across the Middle East — as well as Israel — reported interceptions of Iranian missiles and drones into Thursday, with Qatar telling residents to remain indoors due to the high level of threat. Tehran said it struck an oil tanker in the Persian Gulf, underlining the risk to shipping in the energy-rich region. Israel is carrying out waves of airstrikes on the Iranian capital, hitting military and intelligence assets, following attacks on the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon. At least 1,100 people have died in Iran so far, and dozens elsewhere in the region, said a Bloomberg report.
China to stop exporting gasoline and diesel fuel… China’s government has told the country’s top oil refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline due to an escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf, Bloomberg reported. Officials from the National Development and Reform Commission called for a temporary suspension of refined product shipments to begin immediately, with some exceptions. “China’s curbs on exports reflect a scramble across Asia to prioritize domestic (energy) needs as the crisis in the Middle East deepens, with refiners from Japan to Indonesia and India also cutting back run rates and suspending exports,” said the report.
Supertankers starting to shun planned Persian Gulf routes… Supertankers have begun to abandon planned voyages into the Persian Gulf and seek safer destinations amid the turmoil at the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported. “At least three very large crude carriers that sailed from Asia with plans to load in the Gulf have diverted toward the Atlantic Basin, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.” The move will mean fewer tankers are in place to lift oil from key Middle East producers as and when conditions normalize. The region’s producers are filling up their storage because there aren’t enough oil carriers entering the Persian Gulf to collect cargoes.
IMF warns of global economic damage from Iran war… International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the war in the Middle East will test global economic resilience and warned that “new shocks in different shapes and sizes” will keep coming. Georgieva warned that a prolonged conflict could affect energy prices, market sentiment, economic growth and inflation, “placing new demands on the shoulders of policymakers everywhere.” The IMF is closely monitoring the Middle East conflict, and will incorporate its findings in the World Economic Outlook that will be published in April, Georgieva said.
Stormy weather across much of U.S. … The National Weather Service today said severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain/flash flooding are possible for portions of western Texas into southern Kansas today. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the Red River Valley into the Ohio Valley early this morning will begin to wind down through this afternoon but new thunderstorm development ahead of a dryline is expected by this evening over Texas into Oklahoma. Meantime, areas of snow will advance from the interior portions of the Northwest into the northern and central Rocky Mountains today, continuing for the central Rockies into Friday. Locally heavy snow will be possible with snowfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches likely for the higher terrain, with accumulations over a foot possible for a few locations. A warm front over the middle of the country Friday will allow above-average temperatures to expand from the Great Plains into much of the eastern U.S. through the end of the work week. Locations from Nebraska and South Dakota into much of the Ohio Valley are expected to see high temperatures of 20 to 30 degrees above average. Another round of severe thunderstorms is expected on Friday from the southern/central Plains into portions of the Midwest.
Fed’s beige book: U.S. economy growing modestly and inflation is moderate… U.S. economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace across most regions in recent weeks, though a growing number reported flat or declining activity, the Federal Reserve’s beige book said Wednesday. Employment levels were generally stable, with firms looking to artificial intelligence to bolster efficiency, and companies reported wages rose at a modest or moderate pace in most regions. Eight of the Fed’s 12 districts reported moderate inflation, with firms expecting prices to rise at a somewhat slower pace in the near term, and policymakers considering the likelihood that interest rates may need to be raised if inflation stays elevated.
Federal judge orders Trump administration to stop U.S. tariff payment process… A U.S. judge has ordered the Trump administration halt a key step in the tariff payment process in order to make any refunds simpler after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the president’s global tariffs. In an order on Wednesday, Judge Richard Eaton, who sits on the federal trade court in New York, ordered Customs and Border Protection to stop calculating U.S. emergency tariffs on importers’ customs paperwork. He also questioned why the government was continuing to do so after the Supreme Court ruled the tariffs illegal, Bloomberg reported. Eaton also ordered officials to recalculate certain duties that had passed that step of the customs process, removing Trump’s contested tariffs. The judge confirmed that he has been assigned to handle all of the thousands of refund lawsuits filed in the trade court to date.
Venezuela’s main oil export hub sees shipments hitting multi-year highs…
Venezuelan crude exports from its main export hub are surging toward multi-year highs in March, three months into the Trump administration’s control of oil sales, said a Bloomberg report. “March shipments from the Jose terminal, which accounts for more than 80% of the country’s oil exports, are set to soar to 848,000 barrels a day, according to a preliminary loading program seen by Bloomberg. The volume, if it materializes, would be the highest from Jose since 2019. Exports are getting a boost from steady imports of naphtha used to thin out Venezuela’s extra-heavy crude for pipeline transport, allowing oil to flow,” said the report. “Just like in February, at least five cargoes of the blendstock are scheduled to discharge in Venezuela this month.”
China vows to eliminate deflation… China’s leaders issued their strongest pledge yet to end deflation, which has been “a menace haunting the world’s No. 2 economy for three straight years by damaging business profits and holding down workers’ wages,” said a Bloomberg report. The Chinese government will “steer general price levels back into positive territory,” according to its annual report delivered by Premier Li Qiang in Beijing on Thursday. That language is far more emphatic than the pledge made last year to ensure the “general price level will stay within an appropriate range.” China’s economy-wide prices, measured by the GDP deflator, have been declining since early 2023 — the longest streak since the country transitioned toward a market economy in the late 1970s. Apart from Japan, known for its “lost decades” of stagnation, few major economies have experienced such prolonged and crippling deflation since the end of World War II. The move by China to eliminate deflation by increasing consumption could be a positive for U.S. ag exports to China in the coming months and years.
U.S.-Venezuela gold deal moves gold bars to U.S. markets… The Trump administration and Venezuela’s state mining company have finalized a deal that would see the South American country selling as much as 1,000 kilograms of gold to U.S. markets, the news website Axios reported on Wednesday and as reported by Bloomberg. “The deal would require the Venezuelan-owned Minerven to sell between 650 to 1,000 kilos of gold dore bars to the commodities trader Trafigura, Axios said, citing anonymous people familiar with the matter. Trafigura, according to the report, would then distribute the gold to U.S. refineries under a separate arrangement.” The report of the deal comes after a meeting between U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodriguez on Wednesday to discuss mining reforms and mineral extraction.
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Malaysian palm oil futures prices rise… Malaysian palm oil futures hovered above MYR 4,200 per MT Thursday, swinging from the prior session’s modest dip to notch a one-month peak. Firmer soyoil prices on the Chicago market boosted sentiment, along with strength in energy markets as prolonged Middle East tensions raised fears that crude prices could stay elevated. Demand prospects also strengthened after palm oil imports in top buyer India rose 10.1% mom in February to a six-month top, aided by wider discounts to rival edible oils. Meantime, Reuters projected Malaysia’s stocks fell for a second month to a four-month low in February, with seasonal output declines outweighing weaker exports. Still, gains were capped by cargo surveyors noting February shipments down 21.5%–22.5% from January despite Eid al-Fitr buying. In China, a key consumer, the 2026 GDP growth target was set at a milder 4.5%–5%, the first downgrade since 2023, stoking concerns that slower momentum could weigh on vegetable oil demand, including palm oil.
Cattle futures bulls do some perceived bargain hunting… April live cattle on Wednesday rose $4.225 to $238.35. March feeders gained $6.725 to $363.925. The live cattle futures markets saw more corrective buying and perceived bargain hunting amid cash and beef market fundamentals that remain overall bullish. Some improved trader/investor risk appetite in the general marketplace at mid-week also aided the cattle futures bulls. There have been scattered reports of weaker cash cattle trade so far this week. However, USDA at midday Wednesday reported no cash trade yet this week. Live cattle futures continue to trade below the cash market, which is supportive for futures. USDA Monday reported last week’s cash cattle trading averaged $242.71.
Lean hog futures see solid technical buying… April lean hogs on Wednesday gained $1.325 to $97.075 and hit a three-week high. Hog futures saw renewed technical buying amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart that was restarted Wednesday. Solid rallies in the cattle futures markets also supported buying interest in hog futures, as did firming cash hog prices. Some improved risk appetite in the general marketplace at mid-week also aided the hog futures bulls. The latest CME lean hog index is up 15 cents at $89.84. Today’s projected cash index price is up another 34 cents at $90.18. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Wednesday was $67.90.