Good morning!
Grain prices lower overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was 4 cents lower, November soybeans were down 6 1/2 cents and December winter wheat futures were 4 to 5 cents lower. Soybean futures saw some routine profit-taking pressure overnight, following good gains after the price-friendly USDA data Tuesday. Corn and wheat futures are seeing more chart-based selling pressure amid firmly bearish near-term technicals. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index just a bit lower. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $62.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.22 percent.
Annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour right around the corner… Our annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour is next week, Aug. 18-21. Look for daily updates from crop scouts and state results each evening at 8:00 p.m. CDT. Our final yields will be released on Friday, Aug. 21 at 1:30 p.m. CDT. We will produce our daily newsletters, though our “Crops Analysis” and “Livestock Analysis” will be replaced with an extended version of “After the Bell” all next week.
Trump warns Putin on not agreeing to ceasefire with Ukraine… President Trump has warned he would impose “very severe consequences” if Russian President Putin does not agree to a ceasefire agreement. Heading into Friday’s summit with Putin, Trump said he hoped to use the meeting to set up a “quick second meeting” with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Trump said he had a good call with European leaders ahead of the summit. Trump assured European leaders he wouldn’t negotiate territories with Putin and would push him to meet with Zelenskiy, according to sources briefed on the discussions.
Large swath of European crop areas in a heat wave… World Weather Inc. Wednesday afternoon reported a developing heat wave has combined with minimal rain to promote aggressive drying in a large section of Europe this week. “Abundant rain and favorable soil moisture earlier this month have crops from Germany through Poland to the Baltic States and western Ukraine in great shape, with plant development going well. However, France, southern parts of the U.K. and much of the lower Danube River Basin continue to deal with some crop-moisture stress and the heat is not going to help that situation. Greater plant stress and downward pressure on production potentials will continue until significant rain and cooling occur, which may be later this month,” said the forecaster.
Weekly USDA export sales out this morning… Today’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. corn export sales of 150,000 to 600,000 MT in the 2024-25 marketing year, and sales of 900,000 to 2.4 million MT in the 2025-26 marketing year. The Reuters survey of analysts expects U.S. soybean export sales of 200,000 to 700,000 MT in the 2024-25 marketing year, and sales of 400,000 to 900,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year. U.S. wheat export sales of 400,000 to 850,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year are expected.
Important U.S. inflation number out today… Traders, investors and market watchers today will closely scrutinize the U.S. producer price index report for July, seen coming in at up 0.2%, month-on-month, following an unchanged reading in the June report. The July core PPI (excluding food and energy) is seen coming in up 0.3%, following an unchanged reading in June. Today’s PPI data “could be make or break to cement a 25 basis-point rate cut from the Fed, or even to encourage the possibility of a jumbo cut,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities in Brussels, in a Bloomberg report. “People are already speaking of a 50 basis-point cut, but I think we will need further labor data to shift the narrative.”
Port of Los Angeles in July had biggest-volume month in history… The Port of Los Angeles handled the highest container volume in its 117-year history last month, reports Bloomberg. The port’s executive director said the spike was due to traders rushing to front-load their cargo before President Trump’s import duties take effect. “It’s been a roller-coaster ride all year long, and the ride’s not over yet,” said the director, regarding the disruption to shipping patterns caused by new U.S. tariffs. Already the busiest in the U.S., the Port of Los Angeles moved more than 1 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in July, an 8.5% increase from a year ago, the operator said on Wednesday. That includes containers entering and exiting its terminals, with loaded imports rising by a similar percentage to nearly 544,000 TEUs. The total volume handled was 14.2% higher than in June, said Bloomberg.
John Deere reports lower earnings… Deere and Company this morning reported net income of $1.289 billion ($4.75 per share) for the quarter ending July 27. That’s a 26% decline compared to the same quarter last year, reflecting weakening demand in the agricultural equipment market. Total net sales and revenues decreased by 9% to $12.018 billion. Deere narrowed its full-year net income guidance to a range of $4.75 billion to $5.25 billion. In the previous quarter, Deere reported net income of $1.804 billion, or $6.64 per share. Deere’s stock was down around 8% this morning, following the earnings news.
JBS NV reports big quarterly loss… JBS NV, the world’s largest meat supplier, has reported adjusted quarterly earnings before interest and taxes fell 12% from a year earlier to $1.2 billion. A severe shortage of feedlot cattle in the U.S. has driven cattle prices to an all-time high, wiping out billions in profits for major meat producers including JBS NV. JBS is seeking to modernize its beef operations and expand into added-value consumer products, according to Chief Executive Officer Gilberto Tomazoni. Second-quarter results are the first since JBS transferred its stock listing to New York from Sao Paulo in June. JBS posted a loss of $293 million at its North American beef operation, an 11-fold widening from a year earlier.
Palm oil futures weaker on profit taking… Malaysian palm oil futures on Thursday fell around 1% to below MYR 4,250 per MT, snapping the four-session winning streak as traders booked profits after prices hit their highest since early April. Sentiment was also hit by lower edible oil prices on the Dalian exchange, a stronger ringgit, and bets of higher Malaysian output. Caution also came ahead of China’s July economic activity data, with concerns over the impact of sweeping U.S. tariffs and weak domestic demand.
Cattle futures bulls regain their footing this week… The live cattle futures markets Wednesday paused and saw some consolidation after good gains early this week. Stiff technical resistance levels at the contract highs, which are just above present price levels in August live cattle and feeder cattle futures, did limit speculator buying interest in futures Wednesday. However, sellers in live cattle futures remain timid given the discount live cattle futures are still trading to the cash market. Cash cattle trade has been slow to develop this week. USDA Wednesday reported very light cash trade so far, with steers averaging $232.00 and heifers averaging $245.00.
Weakening cash hog market fundamentals… The lean hog futures market Wednesday saw some profit-taking pressure amid fading cash fundamentals and a solid decline in pork cutout value this week. The latest CME lean hog index is down 23 cents to $110.02 as of Aug. 8. Thursday’s projected cash price is down 6 cents to $109.78. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Wednesday was $108.99.
Today’s reports—Thursday
7:30 am Weekly Export Sales
2:00 pm Feed Grains Database
2:00 pm Cotton and Wool Outlook: August 2025
2:00 pm Feed Outlook: August 2025
2:00 pm Oil Crops Outlook: August 2025
2:00 pm Rice Outlook: August 2025
2:00 pm Wheat Outlook: August 2025
2:00 pm Slaughter Weekly