Good morning!
Grain prices narrowly mixed overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was up 1/2 cent, November soybeans down 1/4 cent and December winter wheat futures markets were 1 1/4 to 1 3/4 cents lower. The corn market bulls are in some near-term technical trouble as the price uptrend on the daily bar chart for December corn has stalled. Bulls need to show power yet this week to keep that uptrend alive. Soybean bulls still enjoy a price uptrend in place on the daily chart for November beans. September meal has pulled back from this week’s spike high, but an uptrend remains in place. Winter wheat futures continue their price downtrends and are being led by hard red winter. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $64.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.22 percent.
U.S. Weather highlights today… The National Weather Service reports widespread showers and storms will persist today over portions of the Rockies and high Plains. A developing wave of low pressure will focus rains from the Gulf over the central Plains, Arkansas Valley, and into the Lower Mississippi Valley today and Friday that result in strong-to-severe thunderstorms. Excessive rainfall is possible today from eastern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, south and east to northern Louisiana and central Mississippi. Flood watches are currently in effect from central Kansas and far southwestern Missouri into northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Cooler-than-normal high temperatures will be common across the northern and central Rockies and into the Great Plains due to the extensive cloud cover throughout these regions. In contrast, the Pacific Northwest will see the return of 80s and even some 90s for daily high temperatures, while much of southern and western Texas will see temperatures soar into the triple digits in some places.
China buying Australian canola… China has booked at least three shipments of Australian canola, potentially ending a years-long freeze, reports Bloomberg. The cargoes were booked by Cofco International Ltd. for the fourth quarter, likely arriving at Chinese crushing plants after December. Australia has been shut out of China’s market since 2020 due to phytosanitary concerns, but China is now seeking to diversify its sources following a trade fallout with major supplier Canada, which was the top supplier of canola to China last year. However, relations between the two countries soured after Canada slapped levies on Chinese-made electric vehicles, steel and aluminum. China retaliated with tariffs on Canadian supplies of the oilseed, which is also known as rapeseed. Australia is the world’s second-biggest exporter of canola.
Russia-Ukraine war still running hot… Russia unleashed a wave of drone and missile strikes on Kyiv Thursday, killing 14 people, including three children, and injuring at least 48. Ukrainian air defense said Russia fired nearly 600 drones and 31 missiles in strikes across the country overnight, with 563 drones and 26 of the missiles shot down. Meantime, Ukraine said it hit two Russian oil refineries. Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russia’s energy industry over the past month, targeting multiple refineries and export infrastructure, creating a crisis in Russia’s domestic fuel market. The attacks came almost two weeks after President Trump abandoned U.S. demands for Russia to agree to a ceasefire to allow for peace talks at his summit with Russian President Putin in Alaska.
U.S. official calls Russia-Ukraine conflict “Modi’s war”… White House trade adviser Peter Navarro is pressuring India to halt its purchases of Russian oil, accusing New Delhi of funding the Kremlin’s war campaign in Ukraine. The U.S. has doubled tariffs on India to 50%, which will hit more than 55% of goods shipped to the U.S., in an effort to secure concessions on trade and pressure Russia. Navarro said India’s purchases of Russian oil at a discount help Russia and harm the U.S., which has to finance Ukraine, and that “everybody in America loses” because of India’s actions. He called the Russia-Ukraine conflict “Modi’s war,” saying India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi was funding Russia’s “war machine.”
Mexico to increase duties on China imports… The Mexican government plans to increase tariffs on China as part of its 2026 budget proposal to protect the nation’s businesses from cheap imports. The tariff hikes are expected for imports including cars, textiles and plastics, aiming to shelter domestic manufacturers from subsidized Chinese competition. The plan could change, and specific tariff rates are not immediately clear, with the draft revenue proposal scheduled to be sent to Congress by Sept. 8.
Federal Reserve surveys show farmer income, credit conditions deteriorating… Lower crop prices have led to farm income and credit conditions deteriorating steadily throughout the Midwest and Plains states in the second quarter of 2025 as profit opportunities in the crop sector remained weak, according to a report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. According to Federal Reserve surveys of agricultural credit conditions, farm borrower income and loan repayment rates deteriorated at a pace similar to the last quarter. “Weakness was most pronounced in regions heavily concentrated in crop production, while strength in cattle and other livestock industries provided support to finances in some areas. Reduced working capital continued to drive higher demand for financing, and interest rates on agricultural loans remained elevated. Farm real estate values declined slightly in some regions, but remained strong, which continued to bolster balance sheets and help limit financial stress for many producers,” said the report.
Green Plains to sell ethanol plant to repay debt… Green Plains Inc. agreed to divest one of its plants to repay debt owned by BlackRock Inc. funds, according to a Bloomberg report. The company reached a deal with POET LLC to sell its Rives, Tennessee, ethanol plant for $190 million, which will be used to repay nearly $128 million in junior mezzanine notes and boost liquidity. The ability to repay the debt marks a “significant milestone in enhancing our financial flexibility and advancing Green Plains’ carbon reduction strategy,” according to CEO Chris Osowski.
Brazil wants to export more beef to Mexico… Mexican authorities will visit meatpacking plants in Brazil to ensure they meet export standards, reports said. Brazil is seeking new markets after being hit by U.S. tariffs, with Mexico becoming its second-largest market so far this month. If approved, the new plants would take the number of Brazilian facilities authorized to export beef to Mexico to 49.
Weekly USDA export sales out this morning… Traders are looking for U.S. corn export sales of -200,000 to 150,000 MT in the 2024-25 marketing year, and sales of 1.2 million to 2.6 million MT in the 2025-26 marketing year. Traders expect U.S. soybean sales of -200,000 to 50,000 MT in the 2024-25 marketing year, and sales of 450,000 MT to 1 million MT in the 2025-26 marketing year. Traders see U.S. wheat sales of 400,000 to 700,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Malaysian palm oil futures lower… Malaysian palm oil futures hovered below MYR 4,500 per MT Thursday after modest gains in the prior session, weighed by a stronger ringgit and weakness in rival edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges. On the supply side, the Malaysian Palm Oil Association reported a modest rise in crude palm oil output during August 1–20 versus the same period in July. Meanwhile, EU data showed palm oil imports fell 34% annually to 352,275 MT in the 2025–26 season starting July, reflecting tighter sustainability rules.
Cattle futures markets remain on fire… October live cattle on Wednesday rose $3.25 to $241.45 and set another contract high. September feeder cattle rose $3.375 to $368.45 and hit a contract/record high. The live and feeder cattle futures markets continue to surge on technical buying from the speculators and due to the spec bears being scared to step in and short the markets. Nearby August live cattle futures prices are now trading above the cash cattle market for the first time in quite a while. Cash cattle and beef market fundamentals remain solid. Very light cash cattle trade has occurred so far this week, with USDA reporting steers fetching an average price of $241.24 and heifers fetching $240.00. Last week’s average cash cattle trading price was $244.25. The latest CME feeder cattle index jumped to a new all-time high of $359.17.
Lean hog futures bulls also gain power this week… October lean hogs Wednesday rose 90 cents to $94.325 and hit a two-month high. The lean hog futures market is surging this week on technical buying from the chart-based speculators and due to the soaring live and feeder cattle futures markets that are at record highs. Still, cash hog and pork market fundamentals have weakened a bit this week. The latest CME lean hog index is down another 41 cents to $106.86 as of Aug. 25. Thursday’s CME cash index is projected down another 23 cents to $106.63. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote today is $108.40.
Today’s USDA reports—Thursday
--Weekly Export Sales – 7:30 am CDT
-- Egg Products 2:00 pm CDT
-- Slaughter — weekly 2:00 pm CDT
-- Agricultural Exchange Rate Data Set 1:00 pm CDT
-- Fluid Beverage Milk Sales by Product – annual 1:00 pm CDT
-- Number, Average Size of US Fluid Milk Product Plants 1:00 pm CDT
-- Selected Soft Dairy Products, Domestic Use 1:00 pm CDT
-- Vegetables & Pulses Yearbook 1:00 pm CDT
-- Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade 2:00 pm CDT