Good morning!
Grain prices mixed overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was down 1/2 cent, November soybeans were up 4 1/4 cents and December winter wheat futures were steady to 3 cents lower, with HRW hitting a new contract low overnight. Corn and soybean bulls continue to hang tough early this week and are working on near-term price uptrends. However, the winter wheat bulls seemingly can’t get out of their own way as prices remain mired in near-term downtrends. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $63.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.3 percent.
Trump says he has fired Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook… President Trump moved to fire Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook following allegations she falsified mortgage documents, citing “sufficient cause” to fire her. Cook fired back and said Trump has no authority to fire her, and she won’t quit, with her lawyer planning to take “whatever actions are needed to prevent” Trump’s “illegal action.” Forcing out Cook would give Trump an opportunity to secure a four-person majority on the Fed’s seven-member Board of Governors. Global stock and financial markets were not seriously rattled by the news, but neither did they take it in stride. Most Asian and European markets sold off a bit, while the U.S. stock indexes were slightly lower overnight. U.S. Treasury market yields up-ticked and the U.S. dollar index weakened slightly.
Weather east of the Rockies more like fall than late summer… The National Weather Service today said the Northwest U.S. will see its heat wave continuing today before losing its grip Wednesday. Daily record highs will once again be challenged this afternoon as temperatures soar to near 100F at the hottest locations. Meantime, heavy rainfall north of a front will develop at times over parts of Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas and the Mid-South through Thursday, with a slight risk of excessive rainfall over portions of these areas. Across portions of Kansas/Oklahoma, the ArkLaTex and Red River Valley of the south on Tuesday, and into Kansas on Wednesday, and in and near northern Arkansas Thursday, highs may only reach into the 60s and 70s, threatening record-cold high temperatures for the dates as rainfall holds down daytime temperatures. East of the Rockies and north of the Gulf Coast, large swaths of below-average temperatures are expected to prevail, with temperatures more reminiscent of early fall than late summer. On Thursday morning, record lows could be possible from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Ohio Valley, southern Appalachians, and Gulf Coast as temperatures fall into the 50s and 60s.
Weekly USDA crop progress data… USDA Monday afternoon said the condition of the 2025 U.S. corn was unchanged at 71% rated good/excellent.Eight states indicated the corn condition improved last week, 9 said the corn condition declined and 1 was unchanged.Most of the improvements were generally found in the western locations, while most of the declines were found in the eastern and southern locations.USDA said the U.S. soybean crop improved 1%, to 69% rated good/excellent. Eight states said the soybean condition improved last week, 8 indicated that the soybean condition declined and 2 were unchanged. Most of the improvements were found in the western locations, while most of the declines were found in the eastern and southern locations. USDA said the U.S. spring wheat crop is in 49% good to excellent condition, 33% fair and 18% poor to very poor condition. The spring wheat crop was 53% harvested as of Sunday. The U.S. winter wheat crop was 98% harvested as of Sunday. Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. corn yield unchanged at 184.0 bu./ac. with a neutral bias going forward. Cordonnier also left his U.S. soybean yield unchanged this week, at 53.0 bu./ac. with a neutral bias going forward.
Some progress on U.S.-China trade deal front… China is sending Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang to the U.S. to meet with U.S. officials and business people, a move that signals talks are progressing after President Trump extended a tariff truce, Bloomberg reports. The trip is not part of a formal negotiating session, and Li is expected to meet with deputies of U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Department officials. The pause in the trade rift between the U.S. and China has given the countries more time to discuss other issues, and Beijing sending Li to the U.S. is seen as “a bullish sign for a deal” that could unlock a summit between Trump and President Xi Jinping, said Bloomberg.
U.S. ramps up tariff pressure on India… The Trump Administration on Monday outlined plans to implement a 50% tariff on products from India, the latest signal that the U.S. plans to push ahead with the higher duties. The notice posted by the Department of Homeland Security said that the increased levies would hit Indian products “that are entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on August 27, 2025.” President Trump announced plans earlier this month to double tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 50% due to India’s purchases of Russian oil, in hopes of pressuring Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table to end the Russia-Ukraine war.
France’s government may be on verge of collapse… France’s Prime Minister Francois Bayrou has called a confidence vote that may topple the French government as soon as next month, prompting a sell off in France’s stock market. The far-right National Rally party, the leftist France Unbowed, the Greens, and the Socialists said they would vote against the Sept. 8 motion, which could force Bayrou to submit his government’s resignation. According to Antonio Barroso and Jean Dalbard of Bloomberg Economics, “Opposition parties seem inclined to oppose the motion. Unless they backtrack, the government will fall.” Prime Minister Francois Bayrou called a confidence vote that may topple France’s government as soon as next month, prompting a sell off in French assets as investors hedged for more political uncertainty. France’s 10-year bond yield inched up to near 3.52%, the highest since mid-March, underperforming other European bonds, as investors weighed growing political uncertainty in France.
Malaysian palm oil futures under pressure early this week… Malaysian palm oil futures fell below MYR 4,500 per MT Tuesday, declining for the second session amid weakness in Chicago soyoil. Adding to the pressure, inventories in July climbed to 2.11 million MT, the highest in almost two years, while output rose 7.1% to 1.81 million MT, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed. The downside was limited by supportive factors. The ringgit weakened, making palm oil more attractive for overseas buyers. At the same time, Indonesia’s B40 biodiesel mandate continued to consume more than one million MT of palm oil each month since February.
Mild profit taking in cattle futures markets… Buying interest in the cattle futures markets Monday was squelched by the news a U.S. citizen from Maryland has contracted the New World Screw worm disease. Profit taking from the speculators was also featured following last week’s contract/record highs that were hit. Selling interest Monday was curbed by a price-friendly monthly cattle-on-feed report. USDA Monday reported the average cash cattle trading price last week was $244.25, which was up $2.24 from the week prior’s average price fetched.
Lean hog futures market pauses Monday… The lean hog futures market Monday paused after solid gains posted last Friday. Lower cattle futures prices Monday did limit buying interest in hog futures. The latest CME lean hog index is down another 48 cents to $107.84 as of Aug. 21. Tuesday’s projected CME cash index quote is down 57 cents to $107.27. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Monday was $109.28.
Today’s reports—Tuesday
--Peanut stocks and processing 2:00 pm CDT