Good morning!
Grain futures closed overnight, technical problems halted CME futures trading… Grain futures trading was closed overnight due to the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Also, an overheating data center at the CME Group in Chicago halted all futures trading overnight and early this morning. (See item below.) When the grains and livestock futures markets open, look for quieter, post-holiday trading as many market participants will still be celebrating the Thanksgiving holiday today. It will be an abbreviated trading day for grain and livestock futures markets, with both closing at 12:05 p.m. CST. Other markets will also close early today. The key outside markets early this morning see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $59.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.00 percent.
Heavy snow in the Midwest today into Saturday… The National Weather Service today said a winter storm that brought snow to portions of the northern Plains and the Great Lakes will continue into the day today. Another winter storm has already begun to the west. Rain is expected for lower elevations of the Pacific Northwest but most precipitation will be snow for both the higher elevations here as well as east into the Rockies/Plains. Snowfall totals generally around 3-6 inches, locally higher into the mountains, can be expected especially across northern Montana. Then a surface low in the central High Plains later Friday and into the overnight hours, with the intensifying low-pressure/frontal system bringing an increasingly expanding area of snow into the northern Plains Friday afternoon and the Midwest by Friday night. Snow will begin to taper off for the Rockies/northern Plains but continue for the Midwest Saturday as the quick-moving system lifts northeastward across the central Plains and into the Midwest. A significant amount of accumulating snow is likely from eastern South Dakota eastward through the central and Upper Midwest, with totals of 6-12+ inches forecast. Gusty winds may lead to periods of blowing snow with hazardous Post-Thanksgiving travel conditions expected. Conditions across the Midwest should begin to improve overnight Saturday and into Sunday morning as the system lifts eastward into the Northeast. Temperatures across much of the eastern and central U.S. will be well below average and downright chilly, with some of the coldest air of the season so far expected.
CME Group data center overheats, halting futures trading and disrupting global markets… Trading of futures and options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange was halted overnight/early today by a data-center fault, causing hours of disruption to markets across equities, foreign exchange, bonds and commodities. CME says futures and options markets will reopen at 7:30 a.m. CST. Bloomberg reported the malfunction was caused by cooling system problems at a data center in the Chicago area, according to facility operator CyrusOne. Engineering teams have restarted several chillers and deployed temporary cooling equipment, a spokesperson said. The halt was longer than a similar, hours-long outage due to a technical error back in 2019 and underscores the reach of CME Group Inc. and its Globex electronic trading platform. It triggered widespread frustration as market participants contemplated the prospect of a lost trading session. “It’s a bit like flying dark,” said Thomas Helaine, head of equity sales at TP ICAP Europe in Paris. “When you’re trading cash equity like us, U.S. futures give you an indication of where the market is going before the open. I can only imagine how complicated it must be for derivatives desks,” he said and as reported by Bloomberg.
Weekly USDA U.S. export sales for week of Oct. 16 released today… USDA today released its weekly U.S. export sales report for the week ending Oct. 16. The agency reported net U.S. corn export sales of 2.823 million MT for the current marketing year and net sales of 571,500 MT for the next marketing year. U.S. soybean net export sales for the currency marketing year were 1.108 million MT.U.S. wheat net sales were 341,300 MT for the current marketing year. U.S. upland cotton net export sales were 175,700 running bales for the current marketing year and 26,800 for the next marketing year. U.S. beef export sales were 13,800 MT, while U.S. pork export sales were 29,600 MT.
China halts some Brazil soybean imports due to contamination concerns… China has halted soybean imports from five Brazilian plants owned by major global agricultural firms over sanitation concerns, according to people familiar with the matter and as reported by Bloomberg. The suspensions hit two Cargill Inc. units, as well as facilities operated by Louis Dreyfus Co., CHS Agronegócios and Tres Tentos Agroindustrial SA, said the people, who asked not to be named as they are not authorized to speak publicly about the subject. Chinese inspectors found wheat grains treated with pesticides mixed into the shipments, the people said. Cargill, Louis Dreyfus, CHS and Tres Tentos didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment, said Bloomberg. Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture confirmed in an email that five units were affected. That compares to a total of more than 2,000 entities registered to export to China, the ministry said, adding that “Brazil maintains a solid and strategic relationship with China.” The trade disruption comes when China is still buying soybeans from Brazil, even though it has resumed purchasing U.S. soybeans following the latest trade truce between Washington and Beijing. China has been heavily sourcing Brazilian soybeans this year due to concerns about potential supply shortages during the trade war with the U.S., its second-largest supplier. “The measure only affects specific units and traders should be able to continue to ship to China from other registered sites. Some traders with affected shipments are considering how to manage cargoes already at sea, including the possibility of reselling them to alternative destinations, the people said. Similar contamination issues surfaced this year in Brazilian soybean cargoes headed to China, though related restrictions were later revised,” said the Bloomberg report.
Putin says no final peace plan draft yet… Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that President Trump’s proposals for ending the war in Ukraine could be the basis for future agreements. Putin said that according to his knowledge, the 28-point plan was rearranged into four parts by Ukraine and the U.S. during talks in Geneva, which can be the ground for talks. Putin lauded U.S. presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, saying he is intelligent and polite, and that Witkoff is coming to Moscow to carry out negotiations with Russia under the order of President Trump.
Nymex crude oil prices headed for fourth month-on-month loss in a row as OPEC+ meets this weekend… Oil headed for a fourth monthly loss on this last trading day of November, as traders look ahead to an OPEC+ meeting this weekend and gauge how a potential Ukraine peace deal may impact an oversupplied market. Brent steadied above $63 a barrel, after a modest advance on Thursday. Nymex crude oil was trading around $59 a barrel. OPEC+ nations meet virtually on Sunday and will probably stick with a plan to pause output increases in early 2026, delegates said. With that decision locked in, a key focus may be a long-term review of members’ capacity, reports Bloomberg. Brent oil has fallen 15% this year, with prices hurt by expectations for a global glut after OPEC+ restarted capacity, while drillers outside the alliance also added supplies. On Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that President Trump’s proposals for ending the war could be the basis for future agreements and expressed an openness to talks, though sticking points that led to stalemates in previous rounds remain. U.S. presidential envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit Moscow next week. An end to the conflict would have significant ramifications for the oil market. Russia is one of the world’s leading producers and its flows are subject to heavy Western sanctions. Any easing of curbs following a deal could unleash restricted supplies to buyers such as China, India and Turkey.
Malaysian palm oil futures end the week firmer… Malaysian palm oil futures hovered above MYR 4,100 per MT on Friday, rising for a third session to a one-week high. Sentiment was lifted by gains in Dalian vegetable oils and ongoing supply concerns after MPOB data showed output rose 3.2% in November 1–20, much slower than October’s 7%–10% gain. In India, the top buyer, palm oil imports in 2025/26 are projected to climb to 9.3 million MT from 7.58 million MT, the lowest in five years, which could bolster demand. Meanwhile, Indonesia, the world’s largest supplier, has tightened oversight of the sector amid suspected export data manipulation to avoid levies, a move that may curb near-term shipments and offer limited price support. However, prices are on track for a third monthly drop, down about 2.2%, rattled by weak exports. Cargo surveyors noted Malaysia’s shipments fell 16.4%–18.8% in the first 25 days of November, while exports to China plunged near 29% in the first 10 months of 2025, according to the commodities minister.
Cattle futures markets post solid rebounds… February live cattle futures on Wednesday rose $5.60 to $212.925. January feeder cattle gained $8.05 to $315.125. The cattle futures markets saw solid corrective bounces and perceived bargain hunting following early-week losses. USDA at midday Wednesday reported more active cash cattle trading at higher prices than fetched earlier this week. Steers were averaging $209.52 and heifers $210.18. Cash cattle trading last week averaged $217.41, said USDA, which was $7.65 below the prior week’s average of $225.06. Upcoming cold temps and snow throughout the Northern Plains will bring concern over livestock stress from Saturday through next Tuesday, when some of the coldest temps occur. More snow is expected in the next seven days.
Lean hogs see heavy short covering… February lean hog futures rose $2.375 to $81.375 on Wednesday and hit a two-week high. Hog futures saw solid short covering and perceived bargain buying following recent losses. Strong gains in the cattle futures markets Wednesday also spilled over into buying interest in lean hog futures. Still, steadily declining cash hog prices will limit the upside in futures, until the cash market stabilizes and starts to turn back up. The latest CME lean hog index is down another 80 cents to $82.81. Today’s projected cash index price is down another 54 cents at $82.27. Wednesday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote is $70.92.