GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 2 to 4 cents higher; HRW steady to 2 cents higher; HRS steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat led a late session rebound and was trading on session highs going into the break. Corn and soybeans traded on either side of unchanged, with corn favoring the downside modestly. The U.S. dollar index is down around 450 points this morning, continuing Friday’s reversal lower. Front-month crude oil futures are solidly lower following OPEC+ increasing production.
President Trump late Friday fired the head of the agency that produces the monthly jobs figures after the Friday morning jobs report showed hiring slowed in July and was much weaker in May and June than previously reported. Trump, in a post on his social media platform, alleged the jobs figures were manipulated for political reasons and said that Erika McEntarfer, the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, who was appointed by former President Joe Biden, should be fired. “I have directed my team to fire this Biden political appointee, immediately,” Trump said on Truth Social. The U.S. stock market sold off Friday following the dour U.S. jobs data, which changed the trajectory of the economic discussion to one of a Fed rate cut now being likely at the September FOMC meeting. Trump said he will announce a new Federal Reserve governor and a new BLS jobs data statistician in the coming days.
World Weather Inc. reported late Sunday the central U.S. Midwest from eastern Kansas through Missouri and Illinois to Michigan and parts of Ohio will experience net drying during the coming week. U.S. rainfall in the coming week will be greatest in the Dakotas, Minnesota, western Wisconsin, northwestern Iowa and Nebraska as well as in portions of southern Indiana and Kentucky. Rainfall amounts will range from 0.75 to more than 2 inches, with some areas in the Dakotas and western Minnesota getting more than 3 inches. The U.S. Delta and western Tennessee River Basin will also be drier than usual during the next seven days. The U.S. central and southwestern Plains will experience some scattered thunderstorms during the next 10 days, with resulting rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in portions of Kansas and Oklahoma as well as Nebraska. Much of Texas will be drier than usual during the next 10 days, although completely dry weather is not likely. Most areas will experience net drying, including West Texas. Temperatures in key U.S. and Canada Prairies crop areas will be close to normal during the next two weeks, said World Weather.
Nymex crude oil futures were weaker overnight after the OPEC-plus decision to raise its collective output. OPEC confirmed a widely expected production increase of 547,000 barrels per day starting in September. While the move had been anticipated, it reinforced expectations global oil supplies may outpace oil demand later this year. Uncertainty remains whether OPEC will pause further output increases
CORN: December corn futures traded on either side of unchanged overnight. Support comes in at $4.08 3/4 then the contract low at $4.07 1/2. Resistance stands at the 10-day moving average at $4.14 1/4 on persistent strength.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures traded within Friday’s range overnight. Support stands at $9.86 then $9.81 on persistent weakness. Bulls are looking to tackle resistance at the July 14 low of $9.98 1/4 on a bounce.
WHEAT: December SRW futures hit a fresh contract low overnight before bouncing. Initial resistance stands at $5.42 1/2 and is reinforced by the 10-day moving average at $5.49. Support comes in at the contract low at $5.33 1/2 on a reversal back lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open higher following reports of higher cash cattle trade to end last week. Another cash cattle record looks likely with trade going into Friday averaging $242.69. Cash trade Friday likely traded higher as well. Last week’s five-area average will be released later this morning. Wholesale beef ended Friday mixed with Choice rising $1.90 to $363.22 while Select sunk 87 cents to $340.50.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone amid technical selling pressure. August futures continue to trade in a downtrend from the June highs with last week’s selling pressure cementing bears’ near-term advantage. Cash fundamentals are beginning to wane seasonally as well, with the CME lean hog index down another 11 cents to $110.26 as of July 31. Meanwhile, pork cutout surged $2.94 to $116.94 Friday, led by strength in bellies, though all cuts except hams posted gains on the day.