GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents lower.
Wheat: 9 to 11 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat continues to lead weakness following last week’s peak, while corn and soybeans followed to the downside. Each saw a modest increase in buying interest going into the break. Markets were supported by an apparent ceasefire between Israel and Iran overnight, seemingly ignoring the fact that neither country has honored the truce. Front-month crude oil futures continue to push lower, currently down around $2.75 to the lowest level in about two weeks, while the U.S. dollar index is around 375 points lower.
USDA reported daily export sales totaling 630,000 MT for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 554,400 MT is scheduled for delivery during 2025-26, while the remaining 75,600 MT are slated for 2026-27.
President Donald Trump announced late Monday that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire after more than a week of escalating conflict — including Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. However, within hours of the official start, Israel reported that Iran had launched a missile barrage targeting southern Israeli cities. Iran denied any post-ceasefire missile launches, insisting its military operations had ended before the ceasefire began. Trump said on Tuesday that both Israel and Iran violated the ceasefire and he was not happy with either country, especially Israel. Trump warned Israel, “Do not drop those bombs. If you do it it is a major violation. Bring your pilots home, now!” Trump wrote on social media. Early violations and mutual distrust raise skepticism about the truce’s durability and the prospect for lasting calm in the region.
USDA rated the corn crop as 70% “good” to “excellent” and 6% “poor” to “very poor,” the soybean crop 66% “good” to “excellent,” and 7% “poor” to “very poor” and the spring wheat crop 54% “good” to “excellent” and 15% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop declined 1.0 points to 377.9, the soybean crop dropped 1.2 points to 362.7 and the spring wheat crop fell 6.0 points to 354.3. The corn crop is now rated 3.6 points above last year. The soybean crop is 0.3 point below year-ago and spring wheat is 19.4 points below last year. Click here for details.
Brazil’s National Energy Policy Council (CNPE), comprised of government ministers who advise fuel policy decisions, will discuss raising the mandated proportion of ethanol in gasoline to 30% from a current 27% at a meeting on Wednesday, two sources told Reuters. The council will also discuss raising the proportion of biodiesel in diesel to 15% from its current 14%, the sources said. In February, CNPE decided to hold the biodiesel blend at 14% amid fears the proposed increase could push up food prices and damage the government’s approval ratings. In March, Brazil’s ministry of mines and energy said increasing the proportion of gasoline to 30% from 27% was backed by tests showing “consistent performance” and “real environmental benefits.”
CORN: December corn futures plunged to fresh for-the-move lows overnight. Support comes in at $4.30 then the psychological $4.25 mark. Resistance stands at $4.35 then the 10-day moving average at $4.38 1/2.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures opened lower overnight. Support at $10.38 1/2, the 40-day moving average, limited the downside overnight. Continued selling finds support at $10.29 1/4. Resistance stands at $10.44 then the psychological $10.50 level on a bounce.
WHEAT: September SRW futures continued lower overnight. The 40-day moving average trimmed overnight losses and remains support at $5.58. Continued selling eyes psychological $5.50 support. Resistance stands at $5.65 then $5.70 on a bounce.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone amid technical buying. August live cattle futures finished Monday near the lower end of the recent range, which spurred some profit-taking from recent selling pressure. While the historic cash cattle run has come to an end, with the five-area average of $234.88 falling $4.03 from the previous week, futures continue to trade well below the cash market. Additional weakness in the cash market seems likely this week. Meanwhile, wholesale beef ended Monday mixed, with Choice slipping 28 cents to $390.22 while Select climbed $6.15 to $383.10.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher amid ongoing, persistent strength in cash fundamentals. July futures have made contract highs for five consecutive sessions. While strength in cash fundamentals continues, futures are overbought on the daily bar chart, which could spur some profit-taking. The CME lean hog index is up another 77 cents to $109.55 as of June 20. Pork cutout firmed another 64 cents to $122.78 Monday, fueled by a $5.08 jump in bellies and a $1.08 rise in hams, offsetting losses in other cuts.