GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 2 to 5 cents higher.
Wheat: Steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led strength overnight ahead of the anticipated announcement from the Trump administration regarding trade and aid. Corn and wheat both saw action on either side of unchanged. Outside markets are unsupportive this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower while the U.S. dollar index is around 350 points higher.
President Trump Monday sent mixed messages about the state of talks with Democrats regarding the U.S. government shutdown. Trump, who had remained on the sidelines for days, said he was open to negotiating with Democrats over health care subsidies to bring an end to the shutdown, at one point suggesting those talks had already begun, according to a Bloomberg report. Trump’s comments appeared to mark a shift after Republicans said they would only consider a possible extension of Obamacare subsidies after Democrats first passed legislation to fund the government. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer issued a statement saying that while no talks were ongoing, “if he’s finally ready to work with Democrats, we’ll be at the table” Hours later, Trump seemed to retreat. “I am happy to work with the Democrats on their Failed Healthcare Policies, or anything else, but first they must allow our Government to re-open,” Trump wrote in a social media post. The comments from both sides marked the first sign of movement after days of inaction to reopen the government.
Expected volatility in the U.S. Treasury markets has sunk to the lowest level in almost four years due to the U.S. government shutdown, according to a Bloomberg report. “The government shutdown has delayed key U.S. economic data releases, depriving traders of catalysts for large price swings, and is expected to leave investors uncertain of the performance of the real economy. The absence of official government data may lead to a period of consolidation in the U.S. rates market, but a surprise quick resolution of the shutdown could result in a spike in implied volatility,” said the Bloomberg story.
Longtime Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier this week has lowered his 2025 U.S. corn yield by 1.0 bushel to 181.0 bu/ac, with a neutral-to-lower bias. USDA did not release its weekly Crop Progress and Crop Condition reports this week due to the U.S. government shutdown, but the summer-like weather across the Midwest is accelerating the crop dry-down and early harvesting. “Corn yields continue to be variable, depending on how much the corn was impacted by southern rust. We will not know the final corn yield until the harvest is complete, but the storyline of the 2025 U.S. corn crop is going to be the impact from southern rust,” said Cordonnier. His 2025 U.S. soybean yield forecast was left unchanged this week at 52.0 bu/ac, with a neutral-to-lower bias. “It is probably too dry in some areas, resulting in soybean seed moisture below 10%.When soybeans are extra dry at harvest, there can be a higher level of harvest loss due to increased shattering and splitting of soybeans that are subsequently blown out the back of the combine,” he said.
CORN: December corn is trading in the upper end of the recent range. Resistance stands at $4.24 1/2 on a push higher. Support comes in at $4.19 1/2, the 40-day moving average, on a push lower.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans reversed higher overnight. Bulls are looking to overcome 20-day moving average resistance at $10.21 1/4 before challenging the psychological $10.25 mark. Support stands at $10.17 3/4 then $10.14.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat saw action on either side of unchanged overnight. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at $5.15 1/2 before tackling the 20-day moving average at $5.18 1/2. Support comes in at $5.05 on a push lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of yesterday’s strength. Prices broke out of a tight trading range that limited December futures for more than a week, which could lead to an extended move higher. Still, the cash cattle market is under pressure, with last week’s average falling $1.89 to $230.76. Wholesale beef is showing modest signs of strength, with Choice cutout climbing $1.07 to $363.34 Monday, while Select climbed $2.59 to $347.97.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of yesterday’s strength. December futures were lower midday before closing near session highs. Bulls are looking to build on that strength, but a bear flag is currently forming on the daily bar chart. The CME lean hog index is down another 82 cents to $102.02 as of Oct. 3. Pork cutout fell 95 cents to $107.35 Monday, led by a $6.00 drop in primal bellies.