GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 4 to 6 cents higher.
Soybeans: 6 to 8 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 5 to 7 cents higher; HRW 3 to 5 cents higher; HRS 1 to 3 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each traded lower in the overnight session but have since rebounded and traded higher into the break. Some optimism around trade was price supportive and hard to shake, leading to short-covering. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are trading modestly higher while the U.S. dollar index is around 450 points higher.
President Donald Trump is “likely” to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Monday, as tensions escalate following accusations from both sides of violating a recent trade truce. A senior U.S. official told Bloomberg the White House still sees a narrow path to de-escalation but warned that “patience is wearing thin.” Meanwhile, China’s top trade negotiator, Vice Premier He Lifeng, is signaling a new era in Beijing’s standoff with Washington — one defined by strategic leverage, fewer concessions and deep alignment with Xi’s hardline economic vision, the Wall Street Journal reports. At the heart of the shift is He’s management of China’s rare-earth mineral exports, a key bargaining chip in the ongoing trade negotiations with the Trump administration. While He agreed in mid-May to resume these exports as part of a 90-day trade truce, he has since slow-walked license approvals — prompting U.S. accusations of backpedaling and threatening to unravel the fragile ceasefire.
The U.S. has presented Vietnam with a “long” and “tough” list of demands as part of ongoing trade negotiations aimed at averting sweeping new tariffs, multiple sources familiar with the talks told Reuters. According to four individuals briefed on the matter, the U.S. framework includes an annex with extensive requests — delivered at the end of May following the second round of talks — some of which would require Vietnam to drastically reduce its reliance on Chinese-made industrial components. One source said the U.S. side is pressing Vietnam to more tightly control its production and supply chains, though it is unclear if any numeric targets were proposed. Meanwhile, Vietnamese officials have pledged to boost purchases of American goods, including farm products and energy. The agriculture ministry announced deals worth $2 billion, with $800 million of that focused on corn, wheat and soybean meal from Iowa. Beyond agriculture, Vietnam has pledged to increase imports of other U.S. products — such as Boeing aircraft and liquefied natural gas — and to crack down on digital piracy and counterfeit goods following U.S. complaints that the country has become a hub for such violations.
USDA rated the corn crop as 69% “good” to “excellent” and 5% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop improved 1.2 points to 374.9, though that was still 10.7 points below last year at this time. USDA initially rated the soybean crop as 67% “good” to “excellent,” and 5% “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the soybean crop started the growing season with a 363.9 rating, 9.4 points below the initial rating last year. USDA rated the spring wheat crop as 50% “good” to “excellent” and 13% “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the spring wheat crop improved 16.5 points to 345.3 behind a 17.6-point increase in top producer North Dakota. The CCI rating was still 33.3 points below year-ago. Click here for details.
CORN: July corn futures made a fresh for-the-move low overnight, though has since reversed higher. Bulls are seeking to tackle resistance at $4.43 1/2, which is backed by 10-day moving average resistance at $4.47 3/4. Support comes in at $4.38 1/2 then the overnight low of $4.34 1/4.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures rebounded overnight. Bulls are looking to tackle $10.40 resistance before challenging bundled moving average resistance from $10.48 to $10.50. Support comes in at yesterday’s low of $10.32 1/2 then the psychological $10.25 mark.
WHEAT: July SRW futures continue to struggle breaking above downtrend resistance. While prices traded above said resistance early yesterday, prices ultimately closed below resistance, which remains bulls objective at $5.43. Strength above that mark targets yesterday’s high of $5.49 1/2. Support comes in at $5.36 then $5.31 3/4 on a push lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open higher as cash fundamentals remain supportive. Futures continue to trade at hefty discounts to the cash market, which is likely to limit any selling pressure. Cash cattle averaged a record $229.94 last week, up $2.97 from the previous week. Cash prices have risen for seven consecutive weeks, with the last six being records. Over the past seven weeks, cash prices have surged more than $22.00. Wholesale beef ended Monday mixed, with Choice cutout slipping 34 cents to $366.00, while Select firmed another $1.46 to $358.11.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as cash fundamentals remain supportive, but followthrough selling pressure from Monday could limit gains after the open. The CME lean hog index is up another $1.06 to $95.90 as of May 30, marking the biggest daily gain in the seasonal rise. Gains have accelerated in recent days, delayed from usual but a good sign for bulls. Pork cutout slipped 47 cents to $106.75 Monday, led by losses in bellies and loins, while movement remains supportive north of 300 loads, showing strong grocer demand.