GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 6 to 8 cents higher.
Soybeans: 19 to 23 cents higher.
Wheat: 11 to 14 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans surged higher overnight on hopes of a trade deal with China, with details coming later this week as President Trump and Chinese President Xi meet in South Korea. Corn and wheat saw impressive gains as well. Front-month crude oil futures are trading near unchanged this morning while the U.S. dollar index is around 135 points lower. Equity futures are solidly higher, trading at record highs.
Top trade negotiators for the U.S. and China over the weekend said they have come to terms on a range of contentious points, setting the stage for Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping to finalize a trade deal later this week when they are scheduled to meet. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, speaking in an interview with CBS News, said Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods “is effectively off the table” and he expected China to make “substantial” soybean purchases as well as offer a deferral on sweeping rare earth controls. “So, I would expect that the threat of the 100% has gone away, as has the threat of the immediate imposition of the Chinese initiating a worldwide export control regime,” Bessent said, as reported by Bloomberg.
The ASA issued the following statement : “As U.S.-China trade discussions advance this week, soybean farmers are watching closely for signs of renewed market access and stability. ASA welcomes reports of progress and continues to urge both nations to prioritize agricultural trade in their negotiations. ‘ASA is encouraged by Secretary Bessent’s comments that trade talks with China are productive and include U.S. soybeans. Signals of purchase commitments are a positive step, and we look forward to learning more details later this week,’ said ASA President Caleb Ragland, a soybean farmer from Magnolia, KY. “We appreciate the White House and trade negotiators keeping U.S. soybeans at the center of discussions and are hopeful Thursday’s meeting between President Trump and President Xi will result in a trade deal that delivers results for our farmers.’ ”
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government appeared to distance itself from the Ontario premier’s interventions on trade following President Trump’s decision to increase tariffs. The increase in tariffs was a response to an Ontario government television ad that featured excerpts from a 1987 address by then-President Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs. Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he would pause the ad campaign in the hopes that trade talks can resume. Meanwhile, President Trump said he does not anticipate meeting with Canada “for a while.” He expressed frustration that Carney didn’t move to immediately pull the commercial. Trump said he but didn’t know when the additional tariff would kick in, saying “We’ll see.”
CORN: December corn is trading fresh six-week highs this morning. Resistance stands at $4.32 1/4, the 200-day moving average, on continued strength. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $4.28 1/2 then $4.25 on a reversal lower.
SOYBEANS: January soybeans gapped higher and saw sustained strength overnight. Additional strength eyes the June 20 high of $10.87. Support stands at $10.75 then $10.70 1/4 on profit-taking.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat surged higher overnight. Resistance stands at $5.34 on persistent strength, while support comes in at $5.20 then $5.15 /2, the 40-day moving average, on profit-taking.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone amid the overall risk-on tone in the marketplace overnight. Fundamentals remain bullish in cattle with another week-over-week gain in the cash market likely. Wholesale beef continues to press higher as well, with choice cutout up another $2.62 to $375.76 while select rose $3.23 to $357.97 Friday. Still, an extension of last week’s selling pressure can’t be ruled out as it continues to be a headline-driven market. Limits will be expanded in both fats and feeders today following limit lower closes on Friday.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher amid renewed prospects of a trade deal with China. Waning cash fundamentals could continue to weigh on the market, but futures are trading well below cash, which could lead to profit-taking. The CME lean hog index is down another 68 cents to $92.95 as of Oct. 23, a fresh seasonal low. Pork cutout climbed back above the psychological $100.00 mark Friday, surging $3.03 to $102.74, led by a $10.23 jump in primal bellies.