GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat steady to 2 cents higher; HRS 3 to 5 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led weakness overnight while corn and wheat struggled to hold onto early overnight strength. Wheat was supported by continued strong export sales, with new-crop sales amassing impressive tallies over the past three weeks. Outside markets are unsupportive this morning as front-month crude oil futures are trading modestly lower, while the U.S. dollar index is around 125 points higher.
USDA reported daily export sales of 210,560 for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 145,560 MT is set for delivery during the 2024-25 marketing year, with the remaining 65,000 MT for delivery during 2025-26.
The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month in April, following a flat reading in March and matching market expectations. Prices for goods were up 0.1% after a 0.5% fall and prices for services went up 0.1%, easing from a 0.2% rise. Core PCE, the Federal Reserves preferred inflation index and excludes volatile food and energy prices, also rose by 0.1% after an upwardly revised 0.1% in the previous month, in line with forecasts. On a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation eased for a second consecutive month, reaching 2.1%, the lowest level in seven months, down from 2.3% in March and below forecasts of 2.2%. Similarly, core PCE inflation declined to 2.5%, its lowest since March 2021.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt called on the Supreme Court to “put an end” to ongoing legal challenges against President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, asserting that the president’s rationale for imposing the duties is “legally sound.” Leavitt said the trade court’s recent ruling blocking some tariffs was an “abuse of judicial power” and ignored the president’s authority to act in the interest of national security. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has heard from countries that they intend to continue with trade negotiations, Leavitt added. Officials are considering invoking a rarely used provision of the Trade Act of 1974 that allows the president to impose tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days to address trade imbalances. This measure — never before tested — would serve as a temporary shield across wide swaths of global imports. The goal of this stopgap would be to buy time while the administration initiates a more durable and legally grounded effort: crafting individualized tariffs for major trading partners under Section 301 of the same law. This phased approach would allow the White House to maintain tariff pressure in the near term while working toward long-term trade retaliation measures against specific countries.
U.S. trade talks with China are “a bit stalled” and getting a deal over the finish line will likely need the direct involvement of President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. Bessent told Fox News that progress since a temporary trade truce two weeks ago has been slow, but said he expects more talks in the next few weeks. Since the mid-May deal with China, the Trump administration has concentrated on tariff negotiations with other major trading partners, including India, Japan and the European Union. Bessent said he would meet with a Japanese delegation today in Washington.
Export sales for the week ended May 22:
- Corn: Net sales of 916,700 MT for 2024-25 were down 23% from the previous week and 34% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Japan and Mexico. Sales came within pre-report expectations ranging from 750,000 MT to 1.4 MMT.
- Soybeans: Net sales of 146,000 MT for 2024-25 were down 53% from the previous week and 58% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico and Indonesia. Sales were below pre-report expectations ranging from 150,000 to 500,000 MT.
- Wheat: Net sales reductions of 128,800 MT for 2024-25, down from last week and the four-week average. Sales were in the middle of expectations ranging from (200,000) to 100,000 MT. Sales totaled 711,400 MT for 2025-26, in the upper end of pre-report expectations.
CORN: July corn futures struggled to overcome resistance at $4.50 overnight, which is reinforced by the 10-day moving average at $4.52 1/2. Support comes in at yesterday’s low of $4.43 1/2 then the May 13 low of $4.36 1/2 on continued selling pressure.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures led overnight weakness. Support comes in at this week’s low of $10.40 on continued selling pressure, while resistance stands at $10.50 then the 10-day moving average at $10.54 1/2 on a bounce.
WHEAT: July SRW futures struggled to maintain early overnight bullish momentum. Key resistance stems from $5.40 with additional resistance at $5.35 1/4 on the way. Support comes in at $5.28 1/2 then the psychological $5.25 mark on a push lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open higher on reports of firmer cash cattle trade. Packers raised cash bids on Thursday, spurring some trade at mostly $1.00 to $3.00 higher prices. Wholesale beef continues to firm as well, though cutting margins remain deep in the red. Packers have to keep paying up for cash cattle in order to meet retailer demand obligations, which continues to fuel the futures market higher. Choice beef firmed another $366.09 while Select rose $1.90 to $353.64 Thursday. USDA reported net beef sales of 14,700 MT for 2025, up 20% from the previous week and 24% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as cash fundamentals continue to support futures, though technical resistance could limit gains after the open. June lean hogs are butted up against horizontal resistance at the April high close, which has limited strength over the past month. The CME lean hog index is up another 61 cents to $94.13 as of May 28, the largest daily gain during the current string of price strength. Pork cutout made a fresh for-the-move high on Thursday, rising another $2.22 to $104.62, led by strength in hams and bellies. USDA reported net pork sales of 30,500 MT for 2025, down 19% from last week but up 1% from the four-week average.