GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 9 to 12 cents lower; HRS 5 to 7 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans saw relative strength overnight, wheat saw relative weakness and corn was caught in the middle. Soybeans and corn are both near key technical resistance. Equity futures saw impressive strength in the overnight session following President Trump’s delayed proposal of tariffs on the EU. Front-month crude oil futures are trading modestly lower while the U.S. dollar index is around 325 points higher.
Widespread rains fell from the Southern Plains through the lower Midwest and Delta over the holiday weekend, with more in the forecast through the middle of this week. Saturated soils will keep planting slow in these areas. Central and northern areas of the Corn Belt will also receive some early week rains.
President Donald Trump announced on Sunday the U.S. will delay proposed 50% tariffs on goods imported from the European Union until July 9 following a phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who requested more time to reach a trade agreement. Trump had previously threatened to impose the steep tariffs starting June 1. The EU said it agreed to “fast track negotiations” with the U.S. to avoid a trade war. Despite the improved tone, serious challenges remain. The Trump administration is pressing for broad concessions from Brussels to reduce a goods trade deficit near $200 billion, including removing EU value-added taxes, food regulations affecting U.S. ag exports and digital services taxes targeting U.S. tech firms. Many of these fall outside of the EU Commission’s direct authority, further complicating negotiations.
Recent flooding in northern Buenos Aires resulted in significant crop losses, especially for soybeans. As a result, South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Argentine soybean production estimate by 1.5 MMT to 48.5 MMT. Most of the corn in Buenos Aires was harvested before the flooding, so he left his Argentine corn crop estimate at 50 MMT, though he now has a neutral to lower bias. Cordonnier kept his Brazilian production estimates at 169 MMT for soybeans and 129 MMT for corn.
CORN: July corn futures continue to struggle breaking above downtrend resistance, which remains a key level at $4.62. Strength above that mark targets the 40-day moving average at $4.64 1/4. Support comes in at $4.56, the 10-day moving average, on continued selling pressure.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures bounced overnight. Bulls are seeking to overcome the 200-day moving average at $$10.65 1/4, which has been a key resistance level over the past couple weeks. Additional resistance comes in at $10.73 1/4. Support stands at $10.59 3/4 then Friday’s low of $10.55 1/2.
WHEAT: July SRW futures saw relative weakness overnight. Support at $5.32 3/4 limited the downside overnight and is reinforced by support at $5.25. Bulls are seeking to reclaim resistance at $5.36 3/4 before tackling the 40-day moving average at $5.43.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open higher in a continuation of recent strength. Cash cattle prices are poised to have set another record last week, with the average through last Thursday at $229.51. The Cattle on Feed Report was neutral, as USDA estimated there were 11.376 million head of cattle in large feedlots (1,000-plus head) as of May 1, down 178,000 head (1.5%) from year-ago. April placements declined 2.6%, while marketings dropped 2.5%. Meanwhile, the Cold Storage Report was mildly negative as frozen beef stocks totaled 418.1 million lbs., down 7.0 million lbs. from March, which was less than the five-year average decline of 16.5 million lbs. during the month. Wholesale beef prices continue to grind higher, with Choice firming 58 cents on Friday to $361.55, while Select rose $2.37 to $351.32.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone amid a bullish tone across the general marketplace. Threatened tariffs on the EU weighed on hog futures Friday and with the delay of those tariffs over the weekend, prices should favor a bullish tone. The CME lean hog index is up another 19 cents to $92.94 as of May 22, extending the seasonal climb, though gains have waned the past few days. Pork cutout is working to extend above the psychological $100.00 mark, rising $1.19 to $101.46 Friday, led by gains in butts and loins. USDA’s Cold Storage data was mildly negative Friday, as pork stocks totaled 455.8 million lbs., up 46.3 million lbs. from March. That was more than double the five-year average increase of 21.7 million lbs., though some of that was due to a 12.8-million-lb. downward revision to March stocks.