GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 5 to 7 cents higher.
Soybeans: 6 to 8 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 3 to 5 cents higher; HRW 1 to 3 cents higher; HRS 2 to 4 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn led strength overnight, posting impressive gains this morning, while soybeans and wheat followed to the upside. Markets were supported by reports from the White House that trade deals will be announced “soon.” Front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower this morning while the U.S. dollar index is trading around 250 points lower.
President Donald Trump said Chinese President Xi Jinping is tough and “extremely hard to make a deal with,” days after he and other U.S. officials accused China of violating an agreement to roll back tariffs and trade restrictions. “I like President Xi of China, always have, and always will, but he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. Trump’s comments suggest growing frustration within the White House as China’s top trade official, Vice Premier He Lifeng, delays the implementation of key export reforms promised under the Geneva framework. The deal, struck in mid-May, was supposed to unlock mineral export licenses and smooth trade in critical sectors — but has seen little follow-through from Beijing.
The U.S. officially imposed 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, doubling the previous 25% rate. The sweeping measure affects all countries except the United Kingdom, significantly intensifying trade tensions with major allies and trading partners. The move, aimed at reviving domestic metals production and reducing reliance on foreign supply, drew swift criticism from trade partners in the European Union, Japan, South Korea and India — many of whom are now considering retaliatory measures. The UK has been given a five-week deadline by Trump to finalize a broader trade agreement, following a last-minute reprieve from newly imposed 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum.
China’s wheat production may shrink by as much as 5% in 2025, reaching the lowest output in seven years, as persistent drought scorches major growing regions in the north, Bloomberg reported. Citing a survey of five traders and analysts, Bloomberg said production is expected to fall to between 133 MMT and 135 MMT, compared with last year’s record 140 MMT. That would mark the smallest harvest since 2018’s 131 MMT. Drought has parched fields in Henan and Shaanxi, two of China’s most vital wheat provinces. Despite the projected decline, Bloomberg notes that “ample stockpiles and relatively weak domestic demand are likely to cushion the impact and prevent a supply shock.” However, concerns persist about food security, especially given China’s 15% tariff on U.S. wheat imposed in March, and broader efforts to shield agriculture from geopolitical volatility.
CORN: July corn futures led strength overnight. Bulls are looking to challenge resistance at $4.47, the 10-day moving average, which is backed by psychological resistance at $4.50. Support comes in at $4.40 then $4.38 1/2 on a reversal lower.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures are poised to challenge resistance at $10.50. Strength above that mark finds little resistance until $10.61. Support comes in at $10.40 on a reversal back lower, with reinforcement from $10.33 1/2.
WHEAT: July SRW futures are once again challenging stiff resistance at $5.41. A break above that mark targets this week’s high of $5.49 1/2. Support comes in at $5.36 on a turn lower, which is reinforced by yesterday’s low of $5.31 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as futures remain supported by steep discounts to the cash market. Traders were discouraged to see trade initiate in Iowa/Minnesota at modestly weaker prices, though cash cattle trade remains light to start the week. Wholesale beef continues to stabilize near recent highs as well, providing little bullish catalyst. Choice beef slid 56 cents to $365.44 Tuesday while Select fell $1.59 to $356.52.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of recent selling pressure. Hog futures have pulled back from recent highs, as traders wait for the CME lean hog index to catch up. The index is up another 44 cents to $96.34 as of June 2, though that is a far cry from recent strength. Pork cutout dropped 64 cents to $106.11 on Tuesday, as all cuts except ribs weakened.