GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents lower.
Wheat: 4 to 6 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Persistent selling continues across the grain and soy markets, with corn leading the way lower overnight, marking a fresh contract low. Outside markets saw a relatively quiet night of overnight trade. Equity futures are seeing modest followthrough strength this morning, front-month crude oil futures are slightly higher following recent weakness and the U.S. dollar index is around 315 points higher.
The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran brokered by President Donald Trump appeared to be holding, with both countries pausing direct hostilities after a 12-day conflict. Israel lifted wartime restrictions and reopened airports, while Iran indicated it would continue to respect the truce if Israel did the same. Despite the tentative calm, maritime security in the Persian Gulf — especially in the Strait of Hormuz — remains precarious. A joint UK/U.S. naval task force and the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) have warned shipping companies to remain on high alert, citing an “elevated” threat level for vessels in the region. Shipping companies are bracing for continued disruption in one of the world’s most vital trade corridors.
The Trump administration is delaying the announcement of new trade deals until Congress passes the Republicans’ massive tax and spending bill, according to National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. The so-called “megabill,” currently the subject of heated negotiations, includes major tax cuts and spending provisions and is expected to be finalized around the July 4th congressional recess. Hassett said the administration is “very close” to finalizing trade arrangements with several countries but is deliberately holding off until the tax bill is enacted. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed the strategy, arguing that a stable domestic tax environment will strengthen the U.S. position in global trade negotiations and provide greater certainty to American businesses. Passage of the bill is seen as a prerequisite for unlocking trade agreements with nations including India, Japan, and Vietnam, and for addressing issues such as digital taxes on U.S. businesses abroad. Once the bill passes, officials say a wave of trade deal announcements is expected, potentially reshaping the U.S. economic landscape and its global alliances.
Safrinha corn production is seen as boasting a record, says consultancy firm Agroconsult. Brazil is expected to harvest “the mother of all off-season crops” of corn, with volume and record productivity, as production is boosted by good weather and minimal crop pressure due to pests and disease. The analysis from Agroconsult indicates the safrinha crop will total 123.3 MMT, a record for the country, up 19.5% from a year ago and 10.5% higher than the previous record. The new forecast is 23.5% above the most recent estimate by Conab, which indicated 99.8 MMT of second-crop corn. The extra crop will need to be exported as domestic needs are met. That will likely weigh on global corn prices in the coming months.
CORN: December corn futures made a fresh contract low overnight. Selling stalled near psychological $4.25 support, which sees little backing until $4.20. Resistance now stands at $4.30, though bulls are ultimately targeting a close above 10-day moving average resistance at $4.35 1/2.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures saw continued selling overnight. Bulls are looking to hold the overnight low of $10.30 on continued selling, which is reinforced by the psychological $10.25 mark. Resistance comes in at $10.38 3/4, the 40-day moving average, then $10.50 on a bounce.
WHEAT: September SRW futures saw modest followthrough selling overnight. Support stems from $5.45 on continued weakness, with reinforcement from $5.37 3/4. Initial resistance now stands at the psychological $5.50 mark, with additional strength looking to topple resistance at $5.58.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as prices are supported by technical support. August futures have found strong support at the 40-day moving average the past couple days. Futures continue to trade at a steep discount to the cash market as well, which is likely to limit the downside. Cash cattle trade has had a slow start to the week as packers are holding out for lower prices and feedlots are holding onto higher offers. Wholesale beef ended Tuesday mixed, with Choice cutout surging $4.03 to $394.25 while Select slipped 69 cents to $382.41.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of recent selling pressure. July futures pulled back from contract highs yesterday, helping correct overbought conditions. Cash fundamentals remain fully supportive, which could limit the downside after the open. The CME lean hog index is up another 89 cents to $110.44, extending the seasonal price rise. Since April, the index has surged more than $25.00 to the highest level since August 2022, though it remains nearly $12.00 below that year’s peak. Pork cutout pulled back on Tuesday, falling $1.55 to $121.56, as losses in all cuts except picnics and ribs saw losses on the day.