GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: 9 to 11 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 6 to 8 cents lower; HRS steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: The grain and soy markets saw a pullback from recent highs overnight as prices continue to consolidate following the recent run higher. Yesterday, prices saw similar price action overnight before rebounding during the day, key will be if that trend continues. Outside markets are favorable this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher while the U.S. dollar index is around 430 points lower, trading back below par.
President Trump’s tariffs faced a barrage of skeptical questions at the Supreme Court Wednesday that signal it may be ready to intervene. “Businesses and countries suffering from the duties and looking for resolution, though, are set for months of uncertainty,” said a Bloomberg report. “Whether or not the high court rules Trump wrongly imposed tariffs on dozens of nations by invoking the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the reality is that the president loves tariffs. And trade lawyers and experts say there are plenty of other laws he can draw on to fill the gap if needed, even if none offers the immediacy Trump relishes,” said Bloomberg. “That means uncertainty will hang over big geopolitical negotiations with China, the European Union and other trading partners, and the day-to-day conduct of business for the thousands of companies paying the duties or trying to find ways around them. Betting markets late Wednesday showed declining odds that Trump will prevail, and shares of large U.S. retail brands rallied on hopes for relief from import taxes he imposed this year,” said the report.
The U.S. Department of Transportation and the Federal Aviation Administration will cut flight capacity by 10% at 40 high-volume markets to alleviate pressure on air traffic controllers and the aviation system during the U.S. government shutdown. The reductions will be staggered, with U.S. carriers informed to cut flight volumes by 4% on Friday and 5% on Saturday, building to 10% sometime next week. International flights won’t be affected. The cuts are necessary to maintain air travel safety, according to Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, who said “the data will dictate what we do” and additional restrictions could be seen if the data goes in the wrong direction. This news likely puts more pressure on U.S. lawmakers to reopen the federal government.
U.S. companies announced the most job cuts for any October in more than two decades as artificial intelligence reshapes industries and cost-cutting accelerates, according to data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. U.S. companies last month announced 153,074 job cuts, nearly triple the number during the same month last year and driven by the technology and warehousing sectors. It’s the most for any October since 2003, when the advent of cellphones was similarly disruptive, said Andy Challenger, the company’s chief revenue officer. “Some industries are correcting after the hiring boom of the pandemic, but this comes as AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs drive belt-tightening and hiring freezes,” Challenger said in the report.
CORN: December corn continue to work sideways in a tight range. Resistance persists at $4.35 while support stands at $4.32 1/4.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures continue to trade between $11.15 support and $11.35 resistance. Prices have bounced between those levels the last three sessions. Key will be a close outside of that range.
WHEAT: December SRW gave up a portion of recent gains overnight. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $5.45, which is reinforced by $5.40. Resistance stands at $5.50 then $5.55
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of recent selling pressure, though discounts to the cash market could limit losses after the open. Cash trade has been slow so far this week at modestly firmer prices, but technical selling and funds covering longs continues to pressure futures. Wholesale beef ended Wednesday mixed as choice cutout rose 68 cents to $378.26 while select sunk a buck to $360.25.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of recent selling pressure. Hogs continue to trend lower methodically on the daily bar chart, though prices did see some corrective buying Wednesday. Bulls have likely been encouraged by slowing losses in the CME lean hog index, which is down just 4 cents to $90.86 as of Nov. 4. Pork cutout slid another $1.63 to $97.54 Wednesday as all cuts saw losses on the day.