GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 4 to 6 cents higher.
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 4 to 6 cents higher; HRS 8 to 10 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corrective strength was featured across the grain and soy markets overnight. Positioning is likely to drive trade ahead of Monday’s key USDA reports. Outside markets are supportive this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher while the U.S. dollar index continues to work lower.
USDA reported daily sales of 119,746 MT of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2025-26 marketing year.
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month in May 2025, the same as in April and in line with expectations. Prices for goods were up 0.1%, the same as in April and prices for services rose 0.2%, above 0.1% in the previous month. The core PCE index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2%, above 0.1% in the previous two months and forecasts of 0.1% On an annual basis, PCE rose 2.3%, above an upwardly revised 2.2% in April, but in line with expectations. Core PCE rose 2.7% annually, above a month ago and expectations at 2.6%.
Washington reached an agreement with China on how to expedite rare earth shipments to the United States. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said, “They’re going to deliver rare earths to us” and once they do that “we’ll take down our countermeasures.” China confirmed details of a trade framework with Washington, echoing Lutnick’s comments. Officials from both countries have maintained close contact after holding trade talks in London earlier this month, a spokesperson for China’s commerce ministry said.
Secretary of Commerce Lutnick told Bloomberg Television that President Donald Trump is prepared to finalize a series of trade deals within the next two weeks. “We’re going to do top 10 deals, put them in the right category, and then these other countries will fit behind,” Lutnick stated. While he didn’t specify which countries would be part of this initial wave, Trump had previously said a “very big” trade deal could be signed soon that would “open up” India’s market to American business, as negotiators meet in Washington to break a recent deadlock over key issues. The White House signaled the July 9 deadline for trade negotiations is “not critical,” emphasizing Trump’s authority to unilaterally set tariff rates if U.S. trading partners do not present acceptable agreements.
CORN: December corn futures saw corrective strength overnight. Continued buying has bulls targeting the 10-day moving average at $4.31 1/2. Tentative support stands at the psychological $4.25 mark, while continued selling would finds support at yesterday’s low of $4.21.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures are consolidating near recent lows. Bulls are looking to challenge resistance at $10.25 on a bounce, which is reinforced by resistance at $10.34. Support comes in at the overnight low of $10.13 1/4 on continued selling pressure.
WHEAT: September SRW futures saw corrective strength overnight. Initial resistance stands at $5.45 and is reinforced by the psychological $5.50 mark. Support comes in at yesterday’s low of $5.36 1/4 on a turn lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of recent weakness. Cash cattle trade has picked up at lower prices this week, which could weigh on futures as the expectation has quickly shifted to lower cash trade in the near term. While futures continue to trade at discounts to the cash market, the August contract does not expire for another two months and cash trade has traded as low as $222.00 this week in the Southern Plains. Wholesale beef has continued to exhibit modest strength, with Choice cutout climbing 11 cents to $395.05 Thursday, while Select surged $3.45 to $379.74.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone following yesterday’s modestly bearish Hogs & Pigs Report from USDA. The combination of slightly bigger-than-expected spring pig crop and revisions to market hog inventories from the previous two quarters pushed the June 1 hog herd up 0.3% from year-ago. Analysts expected a 0.4% contraction. The data was mildly negative compared to pre-report expectations, though more psychological than fundamentally changing. But there could be some profit-taking and long liquidation given the strong seasonal runup in futures. The CME lean hog index is up another 48 cents to $111.89 as of June 25, a notably slower gain than the last couple days. Pork cutout slid $2.16 to $119.65, furthering this week’s pullback.