GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Wheat: 5 to 7 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat, corn and soybean futures gained ground overnight, setting up trade ahead of the midday USDA final 2025 crop production report, quarterly grain stocks, South American corn and soybean production, and U.S. wheat seedings data. The following are averages of analysts’ estimates, compiled by Reuters, ahead of today’s reports.
- 2025 U.S. corn production: 16.552 billion bu. (16.752 billion in the November report) and an average yield of 184.00 bu. an acre (186.0 in the November report).
- 2025 U.S. soybean production: 4.229 billion bu. (4.253 billion in the November report) and an average yield of 52.7 bu. an acre (53.0 in the November report).
- U.S. quarterly corn stocks as of Dec. 1 are estimated at 12.962 billion bu. (12.075 billion bu. on Dec. 1, 2024). U.S. quarterly soybean stocks as of Dec. 1 are 3.25 billion bu. (3.10 billion on Dec. 1, 2024). U.S. wheat stocks as of Dec. 1 are seen at 1.636 billion bu. (1.573 billion on Dec. 1, 2024).
- 2025-26 marketing year ending stocks for U.S. wheat are seen at 896 million bu. (901 million in the December report). U.S. corn stocks are seen at 1.972 billion bu. (2.029 billion bu. in the December report). U.S. soybean stocks are seen at 292 million bu. (290 million in the December report).
- The 2025-26 Argentine corn crop is seen at 53.63 million MT (53.0 million MT in the December report). Argentina’s 2025-26 soybean crop is seen at 48.53 million MT (48.50 million MT in the December report).
- The 2025-26 Brazilian corn crop is seen at 132.46 million MT (131.00 million MT in the December report). Brazil’s 2025-26 soybean crop is seen at 176.35 million MT (175.0 million MT in the December report).
- 2025-26 global ending stocks for wheat are seen at 275.95 million MT (274.87 million MT in the December report). 2025-26 global ending stocks for corn are seen at 279.62 million MT (279.15 million MT in the December report). 2025-26 global ending stocks for soybeans are seen at 123.07 million MT (122.37 million MT in the December report).
- U.S. all wheat planted acres for harvest in 2026 is seen at 32.413 million (33.153 million in 2025).
Check out: What You Need To Know About USDA’s Jan. 12 WASDE, Crop Production and Stocks Reports
There’s a risk-off tone across financial markets after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Sunday the U.S. Department of Justice had served the central bank with subpoenas and threatened it with a criminal indictment over Powell’s testimony last summer about the Fed’s building renovations. Powell, in a two-minute video, charged that the administration was using the threat of criminal prosecution in an effort to press the Fed to lower interest rates. Stock-index futures pointed to a lower start, while gold futures jumped and the U.S. dollar weakened.
China is restarting soybean auctions, after a three-week pause, in an apparent attempt to clear storage space as it keeps buying from the U.S. following the trade truce between the two countries, Bloomberg reported. Sinograin will put 1.13 million tons of soybeans up for sale on Tuesday, according to a statement published on the website of the National Grain Trade Center late Friday.
CORN: March corn continues to hover around the 200-day moving average, which stands at $4.45. Support is seen at the 20-day moving average at $4.43 ¾. Important resistance stands at the November high at $4.57.
SOYBEANS: March soybeans see resistance at $10.70 ½, with bulls aiming for a test of the one-month high at $10.82 ½. Support is seen at $10.62 ½.
WHEAT: March SRW futures face resistance at 5.25 ¼ and then $5.29 ½. Support stands at $5.19.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Cattle futures may be vulnerable to some follow-through, chart-based selling pressure early this week after a technically bearish weekly low close for February live cattle and March feeders last week. More active cash cattle trading late last week saw USDA today reporting steers averaging $231.42 and heifers averaging $231.96. Those numbers are close to the prior week’s average cash cattle trade reported by USDA at $231.68.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to see a flat to lower start after a weakening CME lean hog index and a dip in cash hog prices also weighed on futures Friday. A bullish near-term chart posture for lean hog futures should support some more speculative buying interest this week. The premium for lean hog futures to the CME lean hog index remains a positive element for the futures market. The latest CME lean hog index is down 27 cents to $80.98. Today’s projected cash index price is down 13 cents to $80.85. The national direct five-day rolling average cash price Friday was $68.56.