GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Soybeans: 5 to 7 cents higher.
Wheat: 5 to 7 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Gains were seen across the grain and soy complex overnight. Key will be if bulls can hold onto gains throughout today’s session. Outside markets are unfavorable this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower while the U.S. dollar index is around 325 points higher.
China significantly ramped up its buying of soybeans from Argentina this week after the South American country suspended export taxes. “Importers in China have expanded purchases to at least 35 cargoes, up from an earlier tally of 20 shipments, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified as they’re not authorized to speak to the media. Most of the soybeans are slated to be loaded in November,” reported Bloomberg. Initial reports early this week said China had purchased 10 cargoes of Argentine beans. China is the world’s largest importer and typically turns to U.S. supplies between October and February. The latest Argentine cargoes number is equivalent to more than 2.27 million MT. The most soybeans China has imported from the South American country on a monthly basis were about 2.23 million tons in July of 2015, said Bloomberg.
The ASA was responding to news this week the U.S. government is in negotiations to extend a $20 billion swap line to the Argentine government and potentially purchase the country’s foreign bonds. Almost immediately after, shiploads of Argentine soybeans were purchased by China after the Argentine government announced it would waive taxes on its soybean exports. “U.S. soybean farmers have been clear for months: the administration needs to secure a trade deal with China. China is the world’s largest soybean customer and typically our top export market. The U.S. has made zero sales to China in this new crop marketing year due to 20% retaliatory tariffs imposed by China in response to U.S. tariffs,” said ASA President Caleb Ragland. “This has allowed other exporters, Brazil and now Argentina, to capture our market at the direct expense of U.S. farmers. The frustration is overwhelming…. U.S. farmers cannot wait and hope any longer. ASA is calling on President Trump and his negotiating team to prioritize securing an immediate deal on soybeans with China. The farm economy is suffering while our competitors supplant the United States in the biggest soybean import market in the world.”
Export sales for the week ended Sept. 18:
Corn: Net sales of 1,923,400 MT for 2025/2026 were primarily for Mexico (891,100 MT, including 35,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,200 MT), unknown destinations (290,700 MT) and Colombia (190,900 MT, including 59,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Sales were above pre-report estimates ranging from 1.0 to 1.8 MMT.
Soybeans: Net sales of 724,500 MT for 2025/2026 were primarily for Egypt (166,200 MT, including 100,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,600 MT), Taiwan (115,300 MT, including decreases of 400 MT) and Mexico (85,900 MT). Traders expected sales of 600,000 MT to 1.6 MMT.
Wheat: Net sales of 539,800 MT for 2025/2026 were up 43 percent from the previous week and 37 percent from the prior four-week average. Increases primarily for the Philippines (116,000 MT), Italy (86,900 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations) and Indonesia (77,400 MT). Sales were in the upper end of pre-report expectations from 300,000 to 600,000 MT.
CORN: December corn saw impressive strength overnight. Bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at $4.30 on continued strength. Support stands at $4.25 on a reversal lower.
SOYBEANS: November soybeans pushed higher overnight. Prices continue to consolidate on the daily bar chart. Bulls are eyeing a break of resistance at $10.23 1/2 to break that sideways trend. Support comes in at $10.05 on a push lower.
WHEAT: December SRW wheat broke above key $5.25 resistance overnight. Bulls are looking to topple 40-day moving average resistance at $5.30 1/2 on persistent strength. Support comes in at $5.22 on profit-taking.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone driven by technical buying. The 10-day moving average, currently trading at $236.50, limited the downside on Wednesday and remains key support. Traders continue to await key data from the cash market, as cash cattle trade has yet to initiate this week. Wholesale beef ended Wednesday lower with Choice cutout falling $3.41 to $377.39 while Select sunk $3.48 to $356.42.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of yesterday’s selling pressure, though strength in the cash index could limit the downside. The CME lean hog index is up 10 cents at $105.00, once again showing contra-seasonal gains. Meanwhile, pork cutout continues to fall under pressure, falling $1.05 to $111.63 on Wednesday, led by losses in picnics.