GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Soybeans: 6 to 8 cents higher.
Wheat: 2 to 4 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Grains led weakness overnight while soybeans saw relative strength, supported by gains in soyoil. Positioning is likely to drive trade ahead of this morning’s key USDA reports. Outside markets are relatively quiet this morning as front-month crude oil futures and the U.S. dollar index are both modestly lower.
USDA reported daily export sales of 204,000 MT of soymeal for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025-26 marketing year.
USDA will release its Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports at 11:00 a.m. CT. Both reports have the ability to greatly impact markets – and this is historically the most volatile trading day of the year. The pre-report estimates for the Acreage Report suggest analysts on average expect relatively modest changes from March planting intentions. However, the ranges for expectations for corn and soybean plantings are wide, so there could be a surprise. Quarterly stocks have consistently been difficult for analysts to peg, especially corn. The range of estimates for June 1 corn stocks is 325 million bu., meaning someone will be surprised. Click here to view pre-report estimates.
Seasonal temps are likely across the Plains, Midwest, Delta and Southeast this week, while rainfall will be scattered. While temps won’t be as hot as recent weeks, some areas may see soil moisture decline if rains miss. The Pacific Northwest will be hot and dry, stressing crops in that region.
Canada has announced it will rescind its Digital Services Tax (DST) in a significant concession after President Donald Trump announced last Friday he was terminating trade talks with Ottawa. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Donald Trump have agreed that both sides will resume negotiations immediately, with the goal of reaching a final deal by July 21. The Canadian government’s move comes after months of U.S. pressure and repeated warnings the DST was a major sticking point in efforts to reset the cross-border trading relationship. Meanwhile, Canada Bill C-202 is now law after passing both the House of Commons and Senate and garnering a Royal Assent. The legislation prohibits Canadian trade negotiators from making commitments that would increase tariff rate quotas (TRQs) or reduce tariffs on supply-managed goods — namely dairy, poultry, and eggs — in future trade negotiations. However, its actual power to prevent the government from adjusting its negotiating stance is limited, sources signal.
CORN: December corn futures turned lower overnight. Continued selling pressure eyes support at $4.21, which is quickly backed by last week’s low at $4.19 1/4. Resistance stands at $4.25 then the 10-day moving average at $4.30 1/4.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures saw relative strength overnight. Bulls are seeking to tackled 100-day moving average resistance at $10.34 before tackling resistance at $10.40. Support comes in at $10.25 then $10.14 1/4 on a turn lower.
WHEAT: September SRW futures are trading near recent lows. Support stands at $5.35 while report driven selling would have bears eyeing support at the psychological $5.25 mark. Resistance stands at $5.45 1/4 then $5.50 on strength.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone following another week of lower cash cattle trade. Cash cattle traded generally $3.00 to $5.00 lower last week, though the official average price won’t be known until later this morning. Cash cattle prices are expected to weaken again this week, despite packer margins turning positive. Wholesale beef continues to work higher, further boosting packer margins. Choice cutout climbed another $1.44 to $396.49, while Select is up another $3.19 to $382.92.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of Friday’s late-session strength, though slowing gains in cash fundamentals could limit buying after the open. The CME lean hog index is up another 13 cents to $112.02 as of June 26, though that’s the smallest daily gain since May 23. July lean hog futures finished last Friday at a $1.23 premium to today’s quote, while August hogs held a $1.745 discount – suggesting traders anticipate the seasonal runup will end soon. Pork cutout fell $2.19 to $117.46 Friday, led by losses in bellies, though movement surged to 333.46 loads, indicating higher demand at lower prices.