GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 4 to 6 cents lower.
Soybeans: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Wheat: 17 to 20 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat led weakness overnight with corn following to the downside. Soybeans saw relative strength and traded back near unchanged into the break. A ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran led to a removal of risk premium in the grain markets overnight. Front-month crude oil futures are down over $20 this morning while the U.S. dollar index is over 1250 points lower.
Latest on the war in the Middle East:
--U.S., Israel and Iran all agree to two-week ceasefire and will discuss a deal to end war
--Israel continues combat in Lebanon
--U.S. to help with Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic
--Relief rallies sweep through global stock, financial markets; oil and gas prices tumble
--Pakistan says it will host talks Friday; U.S. has yet to confirm attendance
--Explosions reported earlier at Iran’s Lavan refinery; timing, source unclear
--Across Europe, Middle East, Asia, shipowners cautiously optimistic on opening Hormuz
--Global benchmark Brent crude trading 13% lower, near $95; Nymex oil also near $95
Details remain scant on how the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be carried out. “That won’t dispel the fears shipowners have been grappling with over the past six weeks, as Iran lobbed missiles and projectiles at vessels. Until now, owners have been making plans to have their ships on standby. They are also reaching out to insurers and security consultants for advice,” Bloomberg reported. Ships of all types were seen today clustered on either side of Hormuz, around Dubai in the Persian Gulf and Khor Fakkan in the Gulf of Oman, said the report. “We now have two weeks of respite,” said Vincent Juvyns, chief investment strategist at ING in Brussels. “It remains to be seen whether the crisis is really over but its impact on oil prices will remain. Whatever happens we’re heading towards slower global growth and higher inflation this year,” he said and as reported by Bloomberg.
Top U.S. trade official Jamieson Greer has promoted the creation of a U.S-China board of trade, while downplaying the possibility of a similar group focused on bilateral investment, a sign of what could be at the center of talks when Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Trump meet next month, Bloomberg reports. “We’re looking at that kind of mechanism where we can work with the Chinese to figure what are the non-sensitive goods we should be trading with each other, get a handle on that, figure out what those flows should look like,” said Greer Tuesday during an event at the Hudson Institute in Washington. “Then you’re in a better position to talk about stickier issues,” he added. The Trump-Xi summit was initially scheduled for March 31-April 2, but was delayed after the start of the Iran war in late February. Trump is now planning to travel to Beijing from May 14-15.
CORN: May corn futures gapped lower overnight. Bulls are eyeing support at $4.40 1/4 on persistent selling pressure. Resistance stands at the psychological $4.50 mark on a reversal higher.
SOYBEANS: May soybeans broke down overnight. Support stands at $11.50 then the overnight low of $11.40 1/2 on a push lower. Resistance stands at $11.58 1/2 then $11.63 3/4 on a reversal higher.
WHEAT: May SRW futures fell under heavy selling pressure overnight. Next support comes in at $5.75 on persistent selling pressure. Bulls are seeking to reclaim resistance at $5.85 1/2, the 40-day moving average, on a turn higher.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Mixed.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mixed tone as price action remains choppy near contract highs. While the cash and futures markets are poised for another push higher, futures seems unlikely to extend higher without help from the cash market. Choice beef continues to struggle garnering much of a bullish footing, falling another $5.30 to $382.74, further pressuring packer margins.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of recent selling, though modest strength in the cash market could limit the downside after the open. After a few weeks of persistent losses, the CME lean hog index is up 13 cents to $90.06 as of April 6. That could underpin price action today and help break the recent downtrend.