Will China keep buying U.S. soybeans after tariff ruling? USTR brushes off worries.

U.S.-China deal wasn’t premised on outcome of Supreme Court tariff challenge: Greer

U.S. soybean sales to China
U.S. soybean sales to China
(MGN Online and Darrell Smith)

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Sunday brushed off suggestions the Supreme Court ruling that threw out President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs will result in China buying fewer U.S. soybeans.

“Our deals were not premised on whether or not this case remains in place or not,” Greer told Fox News Sunday. Greer emphasized that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have developed a “very strong, stable relationship” and said that both he and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also have strong relationships with their counterparts.

Soybean futures erased gains, ending slightly lower Friday after the Supreme Court ruled that Trump had overstepped his authority under the International Emergency Executive Powers Act, or IEEPA. Corn and wheat futures held on to gains, while the tariff ruling raised questions around whether China would follow through on pledges to continue buying U.S. soybeans, particularly as Brazil’s harvest continues with the South American crop priced at a discount to U.S. supplies.

The South China Morning Post noted that the decision removes a powerful tool the White House had used to pressure Beijing, potentially weakening Washington’s bargaining position.

Trump earlier this month said China was considering purchasing an additional 8 million metric tons on top of its recently completed purchases of 12 million MT of soybeans that the administration said Xi had agreed to at their meeting in South Korea in late October. The administration has said that China has also agreed to buy 25 million MT of soybeans in the current calendar year and 2027 and 2028. China has never affirmed specific figures.

The potential for an additional 8 million MT in purchases helped spark an early February rally that took soybean futures back toward their fall highs. The gains, however, haven’t fully priced in 8 million MT, or roughly 294 million bushels, of nearby purchases, which if implemented would significantly cut into 2025-26 ending stocks estimated at 350 million bushels.

Trump, in a news conference after the ruling on Friday, said the administration would use a host of other tools to implement tariffs. That included the immediate imposition of a 10% global tariff on all imports using an authority known as Section 122, which can be used in response to balance-of-payments issues but can be in place for just 150 days. On Saturday, Trump said he would raise the global tariff to 15%.

Greer said the U.S. has a variety of tools to use in the wake of the ruling, while the average U.S. tariff on China goods remains around 40%.

“The point isn’t trying to fight with China, it’s really to have stability for the soybean farmers you mentioned, for people who are selling aircraft and medical devices, and folks who want to be able to import some things we can’t get elsewhere from China,” Greer said, predicting that a planned Trump-Xi meeting in April would prove “very successful.”

He said that meeting would be aimed at making sure China is complying with the trade truce agreed by Trump and Xi in October, with Beijing continuing to buy products it agreed to buy and to continue providing access to rare-earth minerals as the two leaders “solidify their relationship” and “talk about what their relationship looks like over the next six months to a year.”