It’s been an unusually warm start to November, a trend that’s gripping the West and preventing moisture from reaching areas that need it. But that trend could shift later in the month, at least in terms of temperatures.
Several parts of the U.S. experienced their warmest November days on record in 2025, including Denver, Colo., and Tucson, Ariz. Other locations like Goodland, Kan., Sidney, Neb., and La Junta, Colo., also set daily record highs. But just how high are we talking?
- Denver: Broke its all-time record November high, reaching 83°F and significantly exceeding the previous record of 78°F
- Tucson: Set a record for the hottest day of the year on Saturday with 88°F, then broke its own record the next day with 92°F
- Cheyenne: Recorded its latest-ever 70°F
- San Jose: Reached 80°F
Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe, of Brian Bledsoe Weather, says through the first half of November, he expects above-normal temperatures across the western two-thirds of the country, with the Southeast seeing slightly cooler conditions.
“The western two-thirds of the country are just going to be a blowtorch,” he says.
Not Good News for Chances of Rain
It’s not just the warmth, but also the lack of moisture in the forecast. Bledsoe says rain chances will stay limited for most regions, especially the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Gulf Coast, where below-normal precipitation is likely. The Pacific Northwest and parts of the Northern Rockies are the exceptions, potentially seeing wetter-than-average conditions.
“We’re continuing to build on some of these dry areas that have expanded across much of the country,” Bledsoe says. “If you look at the current drought monitor, there’s still a good bit of the country suffering from drought.”
He notes that drought persists in the Southwest, where the monsoon season failed to deliver consistent rainfall. Washington, Idaho, and northwest Montana are also struggling with dryness, while parts of the Corn Belt — and even sections of the Northeast — remain abnormally dry.
“Absolutely, we have areas we need to work on,” he says. “But the current pattern just isn’t conducive to big storms bringing widespread moisture.”
Ridge Holds Firm Across the West
Bledsoe explains a strong ridge of high pressure anchored over the interior West — covering Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico — is pushing most storm systems northward.
“That ridge is basically diverting the storm track,” he says. “Meanwhile, farther east — across the eastern Great Lakes and into the far eastern Corn Belt — we’ll be under the influence of a trough of low pressure. That brings a few chances for colder air and maybe some brief moisture, but it’s not a setup for big storms.”
Pattern Shift Possible Later in November
There is some hope for change as the month progresses. Long-range European models show the upper-level ridge beginning to weaken, opening the door for a more active storm track.
“As that ridge gradually breaks down, we’ll start to see less of the drier-than-average pattern,” Bledsoe says. “Areas farther north will likely see moisture first, and then hopefully that extends farther south into the Plains.”
Snow in the Forecast?
While the heat was the headline to start November, and continues to be the case in the western U.S., there will be a blip of not just cooler air, but much colder air that could bring snow to the central and eastern parts of the country. But it won’t last long.
AccuWeather says you’ll need to brace for a big change this weekend and early next week in the central and eastern United States. AccuWeather meteorologists warn the weather pattern indicates a surge of cold air and at least one storm capable of producing a band of accumulating snow across parts of the Midwest, followed by lake-effect snow and perhaps a bit of snow in portions of the Appalachians to the south.
AccuWeather is calling it “Christmastime cold” that’s on the way.
Their meteorologists say a large push of cold air arrives this weekend, which will cause conditions to drastically change.
A significant dip in the jet stream is forecast to begin this weekend for the Central and Eastern states.
“Temperatures will feel more like mid-December or even Christmastime in many places by next week,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok says.
But the cold air will fail to gain a lasting foothold for the remainder of this week, with significant temperature swings from one day to the next in the Midwest and Northeast, according to AccuWeather.
It may be temporary, but the colder air will bring chances of accumulating snow in areas of the Midwest and the Appalachians that are farther south and rather low in elevation, according to AccuWeather. The storm is forecast to track along the boundary of the advancing cold air from this weekend in the Midwest to early next week in the Northeast.
“As we see it now, the most likely time for snow showers in Chicago that can bring a small accumulation is late Saturday night to Sunday morning,” Pastelok says. “Around Detroit the most likely timing for accumulating snow showers is from Sunday morning to Sunday midday.”
While an excessive accumulation of snow is not anticipated on the roads, AccuWeather says the snow can fall at a heavy enough rate near the Interstate 94 and 80/90 corridor to make for slushy conditions in some areas.