USDA report preview: Bigger corn, soybean crop estimates expected
USDA’s September Crop Production Report will feature the first objective yield surveys for corn and soybeans. Based on the average pre-report estimates from a Reuters survey, traders expect USDA’s crop pegs to increase from last month. USDA will also update its cotton crop estimate, which traders expect to increase as well.
The final 2021 wheat crop estimate will come at the end of the month via the Small Grains Summary.
The following expectations are generated by survey work by Reuters (Bloomberg for cotton).
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Expectations for 2021 |
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|
Corn |
||
|
Production |
Yield |
|
|
Average est. |
14.942 |
175.8 |
|
Range |
14.710-15.120 |
173.6-178.1 |
|
USDA Aug. est. |
14.750 |
174.6 |
|
Soybeans |
||
|
|
Production |
Yield |
|
Average est. |
4.377 |
50.4 |
|
Range |
4.310-4.440 |
49.5-51.2 |
|
USDA Aug. est. |
4.339 |
50.0 |
|
Cotton |
||
|
Production |
Yield |
|
|
Average est. |
17.69 |
NA |
|
Range |
17.00-18.45 |
NA |
|
USDA Aug. est. |
17.26 |
800 |
Changes to the corn, soybean and cotton crop estimates will impact the new-crop balance sheets, with traders expecting bigger ending stocks projections for all three markets in 2021-22. The wheat carryover projection is expected to decline from last month.
Globally, USDA’s major cuts to key production forecasts that led to a sharp reduction in 2021-22 wheat ending stocks were the headliner in August. This month, traders expect just modest fine tuning to the global wheat production and ending stocks forecasts. Expectations for bigger U.S. corn, soybean and cotton ending stocks are expected to push global carryovers up for all three from last month.
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Expectations for |
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|
Corn – billion bushels |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
|
Average est. |
1.169 |
1.382 |
|
Range |
1.100-1.277 |
1.018-1.612 |
|
USDA August |
1.117 |
1.242 |
|
Soybeans – million bushels |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
|
Average est. |
166 |
190 |
|
Range |
110-190 |
132-260 |
|
USDA August |
160 |
155 |
|
|
||
|
Wheat – million bushels |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
|
Average est. |
NA |
616 |
|
Range |
NA |
579-652 |
|
USDA August |
844* |
627 |
|
*Marketing year ended June 30 |
||
|
Cotton – million bales |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
|
USDA |
NA |
3.43 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
2.82-4.40 |
|
USDA August |
3.20 |
3.00 |
|
Expectations for |
||
|
Corn – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
286.01 |
|
Range |
NA |
281.50-290.50 |
|
USDA August |
280.75 |
284.63 |
|
|
||
|
Soybeans – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
96.89 |
|
Range |
NA |
91.20-98.70 |
|
USDA August |
92.82 |
96.15 |
|
Wheat – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
279.03 |
|
Range |
NA |
276.00-288.00 |
|
USDA August |
288.83 |
279.06 |
|
Cotton – million bales |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
87.67 |
|
Range |
NA |
86.44-89.00 |
|
USDA August |
91.78 |
87.23 |
