Now that La Niña is out of the picture, farmers across Texas and the Southern Plains are anxiously watching both the skies and the Pacific Ocean, hoping a developing El Niño pattern will finally bring relief to ongoing drought conditions.
The updated forecasts show chances are growing that a historic El Niño is brewing this year. According to NOAA’s April 2026 outlook, there is a 25% chance of a “very strong” or super El Niño developing by late 2026 or early 2027, while NOAA is placing a 50% chance for a “strong” El Niño yet this year.
Ag meteorologist Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather says the talk of a strong El Niño could be good news for the South and Plains, but the area of concern remains in the Pacific Northwest for summer and fall. And he expects El Niño to continue to be a story into 2027.
While hope for rain relief in parts of the South and West centers on El Niño, in the short term, the question remains: will it arrive in time to matter?
Rapid Shift Toward El Niño
Bledsoe says the most important piece of the forecast right now isn’t just that El Niño is forming—it’s how quickly conditions are changing.
“The thing that I’m focused on right now is just simply the rate of change from where we are right now until about June,” he says.
Forecast models are showing unusual agreement on that shift.
“If we look at the latest European seasonal model—you’ve seen this all over the place—look at how closely packed those lines are together from now through June,” Bledsoe says. “That is the model exhibiting very good confidence in not only how quickly this is changing, but also how strongly it’s going to pivot in one direction.”
Confidence decreases further out in time, but the near-term signal is strong.
“As you get out there toward October, you see the lines spread out a little bit—that’s the model saying, ‘Oh, we’re uncertain exactly how strong this is going to be,’” he says.
Still, Bledsoe’s outlook is clear.
“I do think this is going to be a strong El Niño. I’m very grounded in that opinion right now.”
What Makes a “Super El Niño”?
As mainstream headlines increasingly use the term “super El Niño,” Blesoe says the definition is straightforward, but the implications can be significant.
“It just simply means that the sea surface temperature anomalies in a particular area of the Pacific get to be greater than two degrees Celsius above average,” he says.
Some forecasts are pushing beyond even that threshold.
“If we look at some of the computer modeling that’s out there, some of these models push that to over two and a half degrees Celsius above average,” he says. “That is a huge change from where we’ve been in dealing with the La Niña phenomenon off and on for about five out of the past six winters.”
That kind of shift doesn’t just stay in the Pacific.
“When you see that big change take place, it really has a big impact as far as global weather is concerned—let alone what goes on here right in the United States,” Bledsoe says.
Uneven Rainfall Pattern Continues for April
Bledsoe says recent rains have been inconsistent, with parts of the Southern Plains missing chances of rain, while areas of Kansas saw nearly 10 inches of rain over two days. But Bledsoe says that trend isn’t over yet.
“I think some folks got shorted out of this last round of rain,” Bledsoe says. “It’s been very easterly biased. And that’s really been the big trend so far, as these storm systems just simply aren’t slow moving enough and consolidated enough to yank that moisture farther back to the West.”
Bledsoe says over the next 10 days, that pattern largely holds.
“The thing that I’m focused on is all of that orange in the East, that’s where the ridge of high pressure is. But the blue out West, that’s where the upper-level low pressure is, that’s where the energy is coming from,” he says. “And we’re going to continue to send pieces of energy through the West and the Southwest that will come out into the Plains that will benefit some areas; however, not everybody.”
The result is a narrow window of opportunity for precipitation.
“Texas into the Midwest looks to benefit from this the most,” Bledsoe says. “But if you look at the western High Plains—which desperately need the moisture right now—we’re still not in a great pattern to bring that moisture far enough northwest to benefit you. And that does include northwest Texas, northeast New Mexico.”
Signs of Improvement Into May
While the short-term outlook remains mixed, there are signals that conditions could begin shifting as spring progresses.
“If we look beyond that for that 30-day period—from, say, April 21st through May 21st—we start to see that dry signal diminish considerably in the middle part of the country,” Bledsoe says.
That doesn’t mean drought is gone, but it may begin to loosen its grip.
“We still stay fairly wet from Texas into the Midwest. We are still getting moisture across parts of the northern Plains,” he says. “But it’s really right there—southeast Wyoming, western Nebraska, eastern Colorado, western Kansas, down to the Panhandles and eastern New Mexico—where that dry signal kind of relaxes a little bit.”
For producers in those areas, that “relaxing” of dryness could be an early signal of a broader shift tied to El Niño.
“I think that’s kind of a tell to how the pattern is eventually going to evolve as we push into this El Niño by the time we head into May,” he says.
Historical Clues Offer Encouragement
Looking to the past can provide additional insight into what might lie ahead.
“If we look at the historical analogs here—1972, ’82, ’97, 2015, and 2023—those five years fit most closely with where we are right now,” Bledsoe says.
And those years, according to Bledsoe, share an important trait for Plains agriculture.
“If you look at what the Plains do traditionally during May—they light up. They get much wetter than where they are right now. And that is certainly some good news.”
Model guidance is echoing that trend.
“The European seasonal model that just got released this week—that’s the May, June, July forecast—all of that green indicates precipitation anomalies that are wetter than average,” he says. “Even if they’re a little bit overdone, the situation is better than where we are right now from a historical basis.”
Temperature trends also offer some relief.
“When we look at the modeling from a temperature side of the coin here, we don’t see any extreme heat right there east of the mountains,” Bledsoe says. “The main heat signal pivots into the Pacific Northwest.”
Managing Expectations in Drought Conditions
Even with strong signals pointing toward El Niño, Bledsoe says improvement won’t happen overnight.
“Folks’ expectations have to be measured a little bit simply because we do have some dry soil and some drought to overcome,” he says.
The key question isn’t just whether rain comes—but how quickly it can make a difference. Still, once the pattern begins to shift, conditions could improve rapidly.
“Once we get things going, then I think it’s off to the races,” Bledsoe says. “It’s a matter of getting things going.”
A Longer-Term Shift Ahead
Regardless of whether it ultimately reaches “super” status, this El Niño event is expected to stick around.
“Even if it isn’t as strong as what some of the modeling is predicting—even if it’s just strong—that El Niño is likely going to continue into at least the first half of 2027,” Bledsoe says.
For producers who have endured multiple years of La Niña-driven variability, that could mark a meaningful, and potentially welcome change in the overall weather pattern. But for now, the focus remains on the coming weeks and whether the long-awaited shift begins in time to impact the 2026 growing season.