Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading a penny lower to a penny higher, soybeans were 1 cent lower to 2 cents higher, wheat futures were 1/2 a cent lower to 2 cents higher, and cotton was 35 to 50 points higher .
As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn is trading 7 to 9 cents lower, soybeans are trading 12 to 16 cents lower, wheat futures are 9 to 11 cents lower, and cotton is 20 to 45 points lower.
U.S. crop production
Corn: 16.752 billion bu.; trade expected 16.565 billion bu.
— compares to 16.814 billion bu. in September; 14.892 billion bu. in 2024
Beans: 4.253 billion bu.; trade expected 4.271 billion bu.
— compares to 4.301 billion bu. in September; 4.374 billion bu. in 2024
Cotton: 14.115 million bales; trade expected 13.52 million bales
— compares to 13.22 million bales in September; 14.413 million bales in 2024
USDA cut its corn crop estimate 62 million bu. from the September report. The average yield declined 0.7 bu. to 186.0 bu. per acre, though still 6.7 bu. above last year’s record. Harvested area was unchanged at 90.047 million acres.
Compared to the September report, USDA cut yields in Iowa (down 3 bu. to 216 bu.), Wisconsin (down 1 bu. to 183 bu.), Minnesota (down 6 bu. to 193 bu.) and Michigan (down 2 bu. to 178 bu.). Increases were in Illinois (up 2 bu. to 221 bu.), Indiana (up 1 bu. to 206 bu.), Kansas (up 5 bu. to 141 bu.), North Dakota (up 1 bu. to 146 bu.) and South Dakota (up 6 bu. to 173 bu.). Yields were left unchanged in Nebraska (191 bu.) and Ohio (194 bu.).
USDA reduced its soybean production estimate 48 million bu. from last month. The yield declined half a bushel to 53.0 bu. per acre, though still up 2.3 bu. from last year. Harvested area was unchanged at 80.313 million acres.
Compared to the previous report USDA lowered yields in Arkansas (down 2 bu. to 54 bu.), Indiana (down 2 bu. to 59 bu.), Michigan (down 2 bu. to 50 bu.), Minnesota, (down 2 bu. to 51 bu.), Missouri (down 1 bu. to 50 bu.), North Dakota (down 3 bu. to 34 bu.), and Ohio (down 3 bu. to 53 bu.). Yields were increased in Kansas (up 7 bu. to 46 bu.), Nebraska (up 3 bu. to 64 bu.) and South Dakota (up 1 bu. to 48 bu.). Yields were left unchanged in Illinois (65 bu.) and Iowa (65 bu.).
USDA increased its cotton production estimate 891,000 bales from the September report. Harvested area did not change, but national yield was increased by a substantial 58 pounds to 919 pounds.
USDA increased the yield in most major cotton states, including Alabama (up 118 Lbs to 943 Lbs), Arkansas (up 233 Lbs to 1,491 Lbs), Georgia (up 87 Lbs to 983 Lbs) and Louisiana (up 285 Lbs to 1,314 Lbs). The only states seeing decreases to upland yield were California (down 108 Lbs to 1,492) and Missouri (down 21 Lbs to 1,384).
U.S. carryover
Corn: 2.154 billion bu. for 2025-26, up from 2.110 billion bu. in September
— compares with 1.532 billion bu. in 2024-25
Beans: 290 million bu. for 2025-26 , down from 300 million bu. in September
— compares with 316 million bu. in 2024-25
Wheat: 901 million bu. for 2025-26, up from 844 million bu. in September
— compares with 851 million bu. in 2024-25
Cotton: 4.3 million bales for 2025-26, up from 3.6 million bales in September
— compares with 4.0 million bales in 2024-25
USDA raised U.S. corn carryover 44 million bu. from September. USDA raised total supplies 144 million bu. from the last report due to higher beginning stocks. USDA made no changes to domestic demand on the corn balance sheet, leaving feed & residual use at 6.1 billion bu.; food, seed & industrial use at 6.98 billion (with 5.6 billion to corn-for-ethanol). Exports were raised to 3.075 billion from 2.975 billion bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2025-26 at $4.00, up from $3.90 in September.
Soybean carryover for 2025-26 was reduced by 10 million bushels. USDA cut total supplies 48 million bu. from September due to the smaller crop estimate. On the demand side of the balance sheet, USDA left crush unchanged at 2.555 billion bu. and cut exports 50 million bu. (to 1.635 billion bu.). Total use at 4.3 billion bu. is down 51 million bu. from September. USDA puts the 2024-25 national average on-farm cash bean price at $10.50, up from $10 in September.
Wheat carryover increased 57 million bu. from September. USDA raised total supplies 57 million bu. with production up. On the demand side, USDA left total use unchanged from September at 2.054 billion bu. USDA puts the 2024-25 national average on-farm cash wheat price at $5.00, down a dime from September.
Cotton carryover increased 700,000 bales from September. Total supplies rose 890,000 bales from September due to the larger crop. USDA raised total use 200,000 bales due to a 200,000-bale boost to exports (which now stand at 12.2 million bales). USDA also cut unaccounted use 10,000 bales to -80,000 bales. USDA puts the 2024-25 national average on-farm cash cotton price at 62 cents, down from 64 cents in September.
Global carryover
Corn: 281.34 MMT for 2025-26, down from 281.4 MMT in September
— compares with 291.66 MMT in 2024-25
Beans: 121.99 MMT for 2025-26, down from 123.99 MMT in September
— compares with 123.34 MMT in 2024-25
Wheat: 271.43 MMT for 2025-26, down from 264.06 MMT in September
— compares with 261.44 MMT in 2024-25
Cotton: 75.93 million bales for 2025-26, down from 73.14 million bales in September
— compares with 74.49 million bales in 2024-25
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 48.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 48.5 MMT in September
— 51.1 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 50.9 MMT in September
Brazil beans: 175.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 175.0 MMT in September
— 171.50 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 169.0 MMT in September
Argentina wheat: 22.00 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 19.5 MMT in September
— 18.51 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 18.5 MMT in September
Australia wheat: 36.00 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 34.5 MMT for September
— 34.11 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 34.11 MMT in September
China wheat: 140.00 MMT for 2025-26; compares with 140.0 MMT in September
— 140.1 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 140.1 MMT in September
Canada wheat: 37.00 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 36.0 MMT in September
— 35.94 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 35.9 MMT in September
EU wheat: 142.3 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 140.1 MMT in September
— 122.15 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 122.12 MMT in September
Russia wheat: 86.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 85.0 MMT in September
— 81.6 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 81.6 MMT in September
Ukraine wheat: 23.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares from 23.0 MMT in September
— 23.4 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 23.4 MMT in September
China corn: 295.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 295.0 MMT in September
— 294.92 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 292.9 MMT in September
Argentina corn: 53.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 53.0 MMT in September
— 50.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 50.0 MMT in September
Brazil corn: 131.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 131.0 MMT in September
— 136.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 135.0 MMT in September
Ukraine corn: 32.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 32.0 MMT for September
— 26.8 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 26.8 MMT in September
South Africa corn: 16.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 16.5 MMT in September
— 16.95 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 16.5 MMT in September
China cotton: 33.50 mil. bales for 2025-26, compares with 32.5 mil. bales in September
— 32.0 million bales for 2024-25, compares with 32.0 million bales in September