Preparing for USDA's June 10 crop reports
USDA is expected to trim its old- and new-crop corn ending stocks forecasts in Thursday’s Supply & Demand Report. The corn market will also pay close attention to USDA’s Brazilian corn crop estimate, though its widely expected that figure will remain well above private crop estimates. Traders anticipate the old- and new-crop soybean ending stocks will increase slightly from last month. For wheat, the focal point will be the updated winter wheat crop estimate, which is expected to climb from last month.
The following estimates are from Reuters with the exception of the cotton figures, which are from Bloomberg.
|
Expectations for |
||
|
Corn – billion bushels |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
|
Average est. |
1.207 |
1.423 |
|
Range |
1.132-1.257 |
1.282-1.507 |
|
USDA May |
1.257 |
1.507 |
|
Soybeans – million bushels |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
|
Average est. |
122 |
146 |
|
Range |
110-150 |
127-206 |
|
USDA May |
120 |
140 |
|
|
||
|
Wheat – million bushels |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
|
Average est. |
869 |
783 |
|
Range |
832-901 |
702-899 |
|
USDA May |
872 |
774 |
|
|
||
|
Cotton – million bales |
||
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
|
Average est. |
NA |
2.99 |
|
Range |
NA |
2.30-4.05 |
|
USDA May |
3.30 |
3.10 |
|
Expectations for |
||
|
Corn – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
280.82 |
289.20 |
|
Range |
276.00-285.00 |
285.00-294.00 |
|
USDA May |
283.53 |
292.30 |
|
Soybeans – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
87.14 |
91.22 |
|
Range |
86.00-92.00 |
89.00-94.10 |
|
USDA May |
86.55 |
91.10 |
|
Wheat – MMT |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
294.41 |
294.49 |
|
Range |
293.30-295.23 |
290.00-300.00 |
|
USDA May |
294.67 |
294.96 |
|
Cotton – million bales |
||
|
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
90.14 |
|
Range |
NA |
88.00-92.03 |
|
USDA May |
93.16 |
90.99 |
|
Brazilian Production |
|
|
Soybeans – MMT |
|
|
Average est. |
136.16 |
|
Range |
135.73-137.00 |
|
USDA May |
136.00 |
|
|
|
|
Corn – MMT |
|
|
Average est. |
97.32 |
|
Range |
95.00-100.50 |
|
USDA May |
102.00 |
|
Argentine |
|
|
Soybeans – MMT |
|
|
Average est. |
46.61 |
|
Range |
45.00-47.50 |
|
USDA May |
47.00 |
|
|
|
|
Corn – MMT |
|
|
Average est. |
47.04 |
|
Range |
46.00-47.50 |
|
USDA May |
47.00 |
|
Expectations for |
|
|
All wheat – billion bu. |
|
|
Average est. |
1.892 |
|
Range |
1.846-1.973 |
|
USDA May |
1.872 |
|
|
|
|
Winter wheat – billion bu. |
|
|
Average est. |
1.312 |
|
Range |
1.276-1.393 |
|
USDA May |
1.283 |
|
|
|
|
HRW wheat – million bu. |
|
|
Average est. |
760 |
|
Range |
723-826 |
|
USDA May |
731 |
|
|
|
|
SRW wheat – million bu. |
|
|
Average est. |
333 |
|
Range |
317-350 |
|
USDA May |
332 |
|
|
|
|
White winter wheat – million bu. |
|
|
Average est. |
216 |
|
Range |
195-250 |
|
USDA May |
220 |
